GTA, Halo, and Madden were the best selling games in the US last generation, and similar sales are almost set in stone in the next generation. With FORZA, the Tom Clancy games, and very stong western 3rd party support, beating ps3 in North American sales is very possible. The games you listed mondain save Final Fantasy are not the sales powerhouses you think they are.
Only Halo is exclusive to Xbox 360. Tom Clancy/Ubisoft games won't be exclusive either.
Forza's sales were deceiving, with Pac-Man World 2 selling more copies.
In the US, maybe Virtua Fighter isn't a sales powerhouse as it is in Japan, however the remaining franchises are tried and true blockbusters. Final Fantasy is one of the most popular franchises all around even in NA (where Final Fantasy X sold 2.3 million copies).
If I'm not mistaken, Devil May Cry is now more popular than Resident Evil (for which the fifth iteration might not even appear on Xbox 360). Gran Turismo 3's sales were one of the highest amount of sold game copies last generation through the world, and although the fourth volume's modest update didn't resound too much at retail, a fifth Gran Turismo with full next-gen graphics, and online play as an ancillary bonus, sure will sell millions of PS3 consoles.
Capcom are showing they are warming up to the 360 with Dead Rising, Lost Planet, and Resident Evil 5. Other Japanese developers WILL follow or risk alienating a lot of western gamers. I expect many more multiplatform ports from Namco, Konami, Bandai, Koei, etc.
Sure, PS3 will beat 360 in Japan and Europe, thanks to Square. But they still have Nintendo( 
) to contend with. Coupled with the slower sales that the system price will undoubtedly bring I expect much more of a threeway tie this gen than last.
Capcom wanted to try their hands at next-gen since they were given development tools early. Dead Rising and Lost Planet are not killer apps, they are original efforts that might sell well at retail. However they are unknown franchises that won't find a public as big as the other franchises found on PS3 consoles exclusively. And as previously mentioned, Resident Evil has lost a lot of his blockbusting power now.
There sure will be a bunch of ports from Japanese developpers... however considering the absolutely dreadful sales of Xbox 360 consoles and games in Japan, I think that instead more and more, they'll stop developping games for that platform altogether, leaving only the PS3 as a serious next-gen gaming experience platform for them.
With the rather abysmal support from third party developpers on Wii, plus the fact that PS2 will still be around for those looking for a cheap platform for gaming, and with a userbase that accounts for a couple dozens of millions (plus all those owning PS3s too), I'm not seeing a bright future for Wii at all. I'm expecting a repeat of last gen, with Sony way up ahead, Microsoft in second place with strong action and sports games (kinda like in the Genesis days), and Nintendo trailing far behind.
No matter how you put is, this generation's leader will be determined by the amount of exclusive killer applications its console has. Where are the big Xbox 360 exclusive blockbusters might I ask which aren't multiplatform or shared with the PC? How is Bioware going to produce a blockbuster with Mass Effect when it hasn't got the Star Wars or Dungeons and Dragons franchise anymore to catalyze great sales?
Everything's set for another pole position for Sony unless an act of God occurs.
