NPD January 2012

[maxy]

Xbox 360: 270K (-29%) - 49% Console Hardware Sales Share
Wii+PS3 = about 281k

Last week it was revealed that Xbox 360 became the number-one selling console worldwide in 2011,* closing out the biggest year in Xbox history and delivering on the bold prediction made by IEB President Don Mattrick at E3 in 2011. Kicking off 2012, Xbox 360 continues to lead the console market, turning in another month as the best-selling console in the U.S.

Historically, after several years in the console lifecycle there is a softening of demand, but Xbox 360 continues to defy that convention. Xbox 360 has found new ways to extend the lifecycle of the console by re-imagining entertainment and delivering new technologies like Kinect for Xbox 360, a new Xbox dashboard, and new entertainment content partners in 2011.

January 2012 U.S. NPD highlights:
· Xbox 360 sold more than 270,000 units in January, maintaining the number-one console spot in the U.S. This marks the thirteenth straight month Xbox 360 was the top-selling console in the U.S. (Source: NPD Group, January 2012)

· Holding 49 percent share of current-generation console sales, total retail spend on the Xbox 360 platform in January (hardware, software and accessories) reached $301 million, the most for any console in the U.S. This marks the eleventh consecutive month Xbox 360 has held more than 40 percent of the current-generation console market share. (Source: NPD Group, January 2012)

· During the month of January, Xbox 360 held five of the top 10 U.S. console game titles including: “Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim,” “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3,” “Battlefield 3,” “NBA 2K12” and “Just Dance 3.” (Source: NPD Group, January 2012)


In 2012, Xbox 360 will again launch blockbuster games, including additions to the famed “Halo” and “Fable” franchises. The more than 50 Xbox LIVE entertainment partners will continue to expand with many more launching this year. Xbox 360 will also launch entirely new ways to interact with favorite television shows with groundbreaking experiences like “Kinect Sesame Street TV” and “Nat Geo TV,” forever changing the way people interact with entertainment.


*(Source: Publicly disclosed financial data from Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft)

Following a strong December at retail, PlayStation continued the momentum in January through multi-retailer promotions such as 'Play Days' where we saw a 2x lift over forecast in peripheral sales and solid results for the PlayStation 3. February will be a landmark month for PlayStation and the gaming industry with the launch of PlayStation Vita on February 22. Pre-order sales for PS Vita and the launch lineup of 25 titles continue to accelerate as more consumers seek the ultimate in handheld gameplay.
--Patrick Seybold, Sr. Director of Corporate Communications at SCEA

[pilonv1]

Jan 31st, outside reporting month obviously.

[Brehvolution]

  wii
 

[Eel O'Brian]

saint's row, the only thing standing between thq and laughable tablet peripheral oblivion

[Joe Molotov]

Activision announced that they've sold 20 million Skylander figures, and generated $200 Million in sales off the game/figures.

[Trent Dole]

Uh where's FF13-2 on that list? Isn't it a January release?

Jan 31st, outside reporting month obviously.

Yeah Jan NPD covers from the 1st to the 28th. 

[Howard Alan Treesong]

Activision announced that they've sold 20 million Skylander figures, and generated $200 Million in sales off the game/figures.

Kotick's still got it! Useless plastic -> cold hard cash

[EmCeeGrammar]

Whats with the lack of 3ds info anyway?  I don't think we got DEC numbers either.  Software wise I know its just gonna be Mario.

[MrAngryFace]

Are we adding companies together now?

[EmCeeGrammar]

Wut?

[maxy]

1. 360
2. PS3
3. 3DS
4. Wii

[maxy]

http://blogs.ft.com/fttechhub/2012/02/call-of-duty-takes-big-january-hit/#axzz1mB6fgIbp

For anyone seeking holes in Activision’s seemingly bulletproof Call of Duty franchise, there was a chink in the armour exposed in NPD US January sales figures released late on Thursday.
Sales fell nearly 50 per cent year-on-year for the world’s best-selling video game in 2011 – that’s comparing the performance of the latest in the franchise – Modern Warfare 3 – with its predecessor, Black Ops.
The numbers are surprising because MW3 eclipsed Black Ops sales on its initial release.
Activision reported $775m in global sales of the game in its first five days of availability in November – exceeding the record of $650m set a year before by Black Ops and $550m two years ago for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.
But while console sales for MW2 were 658,000 units in January 2010 and Black Ops sold 750,000 units a year ago, MW3 sold only 386,000 units in the US last month.
“As a result, MW3 sales to date are now essentially flat versus Black Ops last year,” said Cowen and Company analysts in a note.
“We now expect MW3 to sell through slightly fewer units than Black Ops across its lifetime.”
Any sign of a decline of player interest is likely to be seized on by competitors such as EA, whose Battlefield franchise is trying to challenge Call of Duty.
But Activision can point to growing digital success not reflected in the NPD disk-based software numbers – it revealed on its earnings call on Thursday that 1.7m paying subscribers had been rapidly recruited to its new Call of Duty Elite online service.

Interest in COD falling?
Possibly but the list bellow is pretty telling

Most recent XBL activity

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
2. Call of Duty: Black Ops
3. FIFA 12
4. Skyrim
5. Battlefield 3
6. Halo: Reach
7. Modern Warfare 2
8. Gears of War 3
9. NBA 2K12
10. Madden NFL 12
11. GTA IV
12. Forza Motorsport 4
13. Saints Row: The Third
14. NHL12
15. Halo 3
16. Assassin’s Creed Revelations
17. Call of Duty 4
18. Red Dead Redemption
19. NBA 2K11
20. Batman: Arkham City

[pilonv1]

http://blogs.ft.com/fttechhub/2012/02/call-of-duty-takes-big-january-hit/#axzz1mB6fgIbp

For anyone seeking holes in Activision’s seemingly bulletproof Call of Duty franchise, there was a chink in the armour exposed in NPD US January sales figures released late on Thursday.
Sales fell nearly 50 per cent year-on-year for the world’s best-selling video game in 2011 – that’s comparing the performance of the latest in the franchise – Modern Warfare 3 – with its predecessor, Black Ops.
The numbers are surprising because MW3 eclipsed Black Ops sales on its initial release.
Activision reported $775m in global sales of the game in its first five days of availability in November – exceeding the record of $650m set a year before by Black Ops and $550m two years ago for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.
But while console sales for MW2 were 658,000 units in January 2010 and Black Ops sold 750,000 units a year ago, MW3 sold only 386,000 units in the US last month.
“As a result, MW3 sales to date are now essentially flat versus Black Ops last year,” said Cowen and Company analysts in a note.
“We now expect MW3 to sell through slightly fewer units than Black Ops across its lifetime.”
Any sign of a decline of player interest is likely to be seized on by competitors such as EA, whose Battlefield franchise is trying to challenge Call of Duty.
But Activision can point to growing digital success not reflected in the NPD disk-based software numbers – it revealed on its earnings call on Thursday that 1.7m paying subscribers had been rapidly recruited to its new Call of Duty Elite online service.

Interest in COD falling?

Not entirely. Probably some COD fatigue but also this

None of this stuff is working. They're just frontloading sales to the day one, then first week of sales look great and then everything drops off a cliff instead of the gradual decline of yore. People who were going to wait will wait.

[Phoenix Dark]

Over saturation never works in the long term for videogames, unless you're Madden of course. Like Guitar Hero and Rock Band, CoD was going to see sales decline eventually. I know people who prefer Black Ops and play it over MW3 now.

And in November we'll probably get Black Ops 2 or whatever

[Vertigo]

I wonder how many people are spread out over the various CoD titles? I have plenty of people on my Friendslist who still main MW2, Black Ops was also fairly busy when i popped on last week.

[Stoney Mason]

No game or series experiences never ending growth. COD has simply hit the upper limits of where it can hit. Still by far more popular than any franchise outside of some Nintendo ones.

[maxy]

Speaking of COD

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

That's crazy

[CajoleJuice]

holy mother of god

[maxy]

Gamasutra article is up
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/40265/Is_video_game_retail_dying_Three_theories_behind_Januarys_sales_downer.php





This is from the article writer on gaf

The hardware ASPs this past month: Xbox 360 = $299, PS3 = $272, Wii = $147, and NDS+3DS = $166. (Yes, I asked for separate for the two handhelds. I work with what I have.)

If we make the estimate that the NDS was about 40% of the sales of the 3DS (look at November and December for why this isn't unreasonable), use historical values for other ASPs, then I would come up with these estimates based on these ASPs and my own intuition: PS3 = 180-200K, Wii = 140-160K, NDS under 100K, and 3DS around the 175K that we discussed here. Based on what we know about the previous months, I'm guessing PSP and PS2 were basically inconsequential, but I can't prove that on the public data, of course.

[Great Rumbler]

Digital is definitely taking a bigger and bigger bite out of retail sales.

[Himu]

What the fuck is with those charts and graphs and those shitty articles? January is ALWAYS slow because jack shit comes in that month combined with the fact that it immediately tails the biggest shopping season of the year. Sales pick up in February through April. Are these people distinguished mentally-challenged? Even the biggest of January - FF13-2 - came out on the last day of the month. I WONDER WHY.

[Great Rumbler]

What the fuck is with those charts and graphs and those shitty articles? January is ALWAYS slow because jack shit comes in that month combined with the fact that it immediately tails the biggest shopping season of the year. Sales pick up in February through April. Are these people distinguished mentally-challenged? Even the biggest of January - FF13-2 - came out on the last day of the month. I WONDER WHY.

It's actually comparing only January sales for the past few years, not January compared to the previous months.

Of course, there's a variety of reasons why this January might be down compared to other January besides just RETAIL IS TEH DOOMED.

[Himu]

Nothing fucking came out in January

[AdmiralViscen]

360's ATP is amazing considering there is a $199 model on shelves.

[pilonv1]

If you put in the 4 big titles released last January you get around a billion dollars in revenue, so around 2007 levels.  If you put in the sales lost from a more frontloaded CoD title, you get around last years level.  Videogame journalists r dum.

Pretty much. There's a reason they're writing about games and not dealing with numbers.

[EmCeeGrammar]

We're at the tail end of the generation in a precarious economic climate.  Considering we're 6 years in with the same ol consoles its not surprising things will be slower until the next batch of shiny boxes comes around.  Well, maybe not right away.  The new consoles will need some time to entrench themselves and hopefully adopt sensible variable pricing for their wares.

[EmCeeGrammar]

Hey stop busting my armchair analysis balls.

But I think everyone is oversimplifying things (myself included).  Budgets are too high, therefore prices are too high, there's more platforms than ever (not just strict game consoles).  If anything the problem would be publishers who are too large to adapt to do what is necessary.  I don't think the death of retail is an inevitability, but rather a possible outcome as long as everyone chooses to remain stubborn.

[Stoney Mason]

I think there is probably a bit of market contraction although certainly NPD is missing an increasing portion of the market with digital sales across Xbox Live and PSN whether it be games, points, or subscription revenue. We get some of that in the earning reports for companies but even with NPD estimating that stuff for separate reports its probably not reported in the very broad stuff they release.

Tablets, ios, android, smartphones, facebook are markets that didn't exist just a couple of years ago. More people are gaming. They just do it across more platforms at the moment. Certainly some of that is new gamers and some of that is siphoned from the existing markets like consoles.

The other bit is that Wii sort of over-inflated the market. Now that's its dead you are getting some poor year on year comparisons as the bubble broke.

In general though I would say there is nothing to worry about. Consoles are doing fine as long as they adapt to the changing market.

[Great Rumbler]

The other bit is that Wii sort of over-inflated the market. Now that's its dead you are getting some poor year on year comparisons as the bubble broke.

Yeah, I think the Wii is a big reason for the huge increases in 2006-2008 and the drops in 2009-2011. Rise of digital distribution plays a role in those last few years, as well.

[Stoney Mason]

I think new consoles will come out. New games will come out. I'll be playing them for 6 or 7 years. That's my concern and that's what I mean when I say consoles will be fine. Lots of companies are dying so if they go and bring down the console market with them I'll be the first to admit it but I don't see that happening. I see fewer games and people hedging there bets with smaller budget stuff on other platforms and if consoles are smart they will try to adapt to that also. But I truly doubt anything will change for me as gamer for this upcoming gen but then I'm talking about my specific taste in games.

There are certainly long term issues about how do you remain profitable if big budget is the only thing that sells or budgets are so big that no amount of sales can recoup. There is also the longer term issue of what cloud gaming will really mean and when although I think that's farther out than alot of people think. I think the console market has changed. And there are a lot of people right now who shouldn't be in it. And there are too many games or at least too many big budget games that have no chance of making money. I think the problem you see with devs going out of business is sad but is simply a correction of reality. A lot of companies don't know what they are doing right now and are over budget and not making something that the masses actually want to play.

Even if I'm wrong and the console market goes down so be it. There will always be gaming. It may just not necessarily be on boxes put out by Nintendo, Sony, or Microsoft.

[EmCeeGrammar]

Well I'M enjoying things now.  And I've got one of the shallowest pools of content to pull from atm.

If (hell let's concede to WHEN) the players start to die off and it all ultimately contracts I think it will be for the better down the road.  Sometimes companies just need to learn from their mistakes and it will provide a more stable framework for things to come.  Then again I'm not as emotionally attached to niche genres as some others are. I'm selfish like that,

[maxy]

I'm not too fussed either but something has to change.

Used sales will be the first thing under attack of course,easy stuff first.How to do that?
Simple,the system is already in place-online passes.Expand it to offline games,integrate into console(software api)...done

But they have to throw people a bone.That can be done too--game(app) forever linked to your account,accessible on any device that meets specific requirements.Game disc is no longer needed and can be sold but the buyer has to pay software licence fee.
Console requirements:

1.Hard drive--mandatory
2.Live access--needed for registration,but not mandatory to play the game

No way to wiggle out of this---games can easily update console with up to date info

Real problems to be solved after shit hits the fan.

[Bebpo]

I'd never notice that there were fewer games coming out.  Every year it seems like there's more and more and my backlog cries.

[Cerveza mas fina]

The other bit is that Wii sort of over-inflated the market. Now that's its dead you are getting some poor year on year comparisons as the bubble broke.

Yeah, I think the Wii is a big reason for the huge increases in 2006-2008 and the drops in 2009-2011. Rise of digital distribution plays a role in those last few years, as well.

This and economic crises + this gen is long overdue to end.

Gaming is as fine as ever.