What will happen if next gen is a dud?

[Cerveza mas fina]

The death of 50/100 million dollar games, what will this mean for the industry?

Will we be stuck with Kickstarter games? What kind of production values can we expect in this post apocalyptic world of the future?

[archnemesis]

Interesting games will still be made and I will continue to play them. There was only a single AAA game on my top 10 GotY list for last year.

[magus]

maybe we can return to the good ol days of glorious nippon games!

[Powerslave]

If a crash is what we need to get back at making games that focus on gameplay instead of graphics I'll be more than glad.

[Cerveza mas fina]

But what IQ can we expect then?

I mean the tools for last gen like UE3 and the Crysis engine are there already, is that the IQ we can expect from future B games?

[Cerveza mas fina]

Could be worse i guess.

After the apocalypse it will all be pc and mobile gaming.

[Powerslave]

But what IQ can we expect then?

I mean the tools for last gen like UE3 and the Crysis engine are there already, is that the IQ we can expect from future B games?

I wish the majority of game developers were focusing on using hardware power for physics and AI and optimizing the graphics around those requirements. I remember early in the PS2 launch era I was having dreams of finally playing games that had destructable environments and there was a glimmer of hope with Red Faction 2 but that was it. We're 12 years further now and 2 console gens ahead and we are still not seeing any major improvement in physics and environment interaction. That is absolutely absurd. 

[Great Rumbler]

I just enjoy the 'ol roller coaster ride now and then, but when a game like this exists devoid of the traditional publisher model [and for a budget of less than $1.8 million]:



What do we even need AAA gaming for anyway?

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

- There will be another crash but this time with chintzy 99 cent/F2P games.  Too many developers will make risky bets and most of them are going to lose their asses.  Again in some cases (this is where EA will probably fall under) and we're seeing this with Zynga already.  Mobile/F2P is not the land of milk and honey people are thinking it is.

- Kickstarter will dry up when too many people lose their faith in the model.  Too many high profile busts.  The Ouya looks to be a fucking failure, for instance with Kickstarter backers still not receiving their piece of shit Ouya while the launch is exactly one week away.  All of these are going to start weighing in people's minds.  Even supposedly safe bets won't break that way.  Only a select few titles will make it, not enough to assume that it will be the groundbed of indie gaming.

- Iwata and Reggie will leave Nintendo, probably one after the other.  Nintendo's new direction will result in a marginalization of Miyamoto.  He will be essentially a figurehead (more so) and might produce an eShop game or two.

- A lot of bullshit about digital rights.  In acts of desperation, we're going to see some crazy shit happen where some publisher institutes some draconian terms.

- Game journalists are going to be out on their asses.  Some will make it to mobile gaming sites, some will make it to tech sites, but most of them are going to live a hand to mouth existence at best.  No more bullshit about cup sizes on characters, no more Citizen Kane comparisons, no more wacky and kooky personalities who barely play the games they review.  This is going to be the best part about the gaming crash.

[Cerveza mas fina]

let's wait until that game actually exists before we start doing a dance.  it's a long way from alpha to final and $1.8 million goes faster than you'd think.

Its still slated for this month

[Great Rumbler]

let's wait until that game actually exists before we start doing a dance.  it's a long way from alpha to final and $1.8 million goes faster than you'd think.

Its still slated for this month

They just pushed it back to July 25th today. :'(

[Cerveza mas fina]

Ouch.

[Great Rumbler]

But it does at least have solid release date now [it didn't before, other than "June"] and modders have another month to crank out some really sweet missions [like the entire Genesis and SNES Shadowrun games ported to Shadowrun Returns].

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Zynga's actually not a great example.  Their transition to mobile was slow and poorly handled.  Hilariously, with EA, their high effort stuff has done badly, and their F2P cow clickers have brought in huge bank.  Gameloft is another one who's made a mint off 99 cent sales and are now transitioning into F2P with some good success.  To say nothing of guys like Supercell, Gungho, and King.com.

Zynga was/is basically like Acclaim was in the console sector.  Very low quality, perpetually two steps behind, and a terrible reputation with the userbase.

I'm just predicting (making shit up).  I have no idea how mobile/F2P gaming is going to turn out except that if there is money to be made, people are going to oversaturate it, and some businesses are going to bet and lose the farm over it.

[Diunx]

When The End comes I'll probably won't notice it for at least 10 years, #thirdworldbacklogs

[Yeti]

Hilariously, with EA, their high effort stuff has done badly, and their F2P cow clickers have brought in huge bank.

Simpsons Tapped Out GOTY

[headwalk]

if history has taught us anything, the oculus rift has too many porno opportunities to not become one of the most successful formats of all time.

[Smooth Groove]

Why will next-gen games be substantially more expensive to make than this gen? 

Unlike the previous gen, there's no huge leap in resolution so art assets shouldn't cost much more.  Some games will probably still end up being 720p for performance reasons. 

From what have been shown so far, most next-gen games have similar graphics to current games except with muchl better image quality and framerates.

[archnemesis]

The devs behind that GIF had to expand their team with some more artists since they wanted a high level of details in very large open areas. I can't find the exact quote right now, but IIRC they hired 10-20 new guys. This isn't necessary for all genres though. The Legend of Grimrock has a very high image quality and nice art assets and it was done by four people. The Atelier games are made by a staff of ~20. You can keep down costs with smart design choices. It's only when you try to model realistic and very detailed environments that you need an army of artists.

[headwalk]

(Image removed from quote.)

The devs behind that GIF had to expand their team with some more artists since they wanted a high level of details in very large open areas. I can't find the exact quote right now, but IIRC they hired 10-20 new guys. This isn't necessary for all genres though. The Legend of Grimrock has a very high image quality and nice art assets and it was done by four people. The Atelier games are made by a staff of ~20. You can keep down costs with smart design choices. It's only when you try to model realistic and very detailed environments that you need an army of artists.

we used to call these ultra high detail non-interactive environments "skyboxes" and one stretched bitmap would do.

[Fifstar]

Well, Legend Of Grimrock has the scope of a genre that that is more than 20 years old, of course games like that aren't going to jump up in cost with a new gen. A lot of games for the next gen consoles are open world or at least half open world and with the added horsepower those worlds can now be made with lots of high res textures and high poly count models, so I guess those games will be more expensive to be made. 10-20 people actually seems like a drop in the bucket, aren't some games done with up to 700 people like the ass creed series?

[Steve Contra]

Lots of job losses, a huge uncoordinated rush to mobile/kickstarter, those will falter, lots more job losses, and we'll be left with a substantially smaller industry as a whole mostly focused on shitty mobile games.  Great Rumbler's kickstarter future is not going to happen, and the indy scene is a lot less safe when you don't have large companies to provide jobs and foster talent to people between stuff.  So overall the industry is fucked.

[Madrun Badrun]

In terms of fun, indy games are about the same crap shoot that supposedly AAA games are.  This is not good for 50 million dollar games.

[Don Flamenco]

(Image removed from quote.)

The devs behind that GIF had to expand their team with some more artists since they wanted a high level of details in very large open areas. I can't find the exact quote right now, but IIRC they hired 10-20 new guys. This isn't necessary for all genres though. The Legend of Grimrock has a very high image quality and nice art assets and it was done by four people. The Atelier games are made by a staff of ~20. You can keep down costs with smart design choices. It's only when you try to model realistic and very detailed environments that you need an army of artists.

see..I can buy the new Killzone or I can buy the fucking $15 Doom collection on PSN and have more fun for a longer period of time, on a system that isn't $400. 

[Great Rumbler]

Great Rumbler's kickstarter future is not going to happen

Oh ye of little faith.

[Steve Contra]

It won't.  It's largely running off nostalgia now (I mean you posted Shadowrun as your example), and after some bound to happen disasters it'll slow down to a crawl, with only established devs getting any support.

[Great Rumbler]

You don't need $5 million to make a really fun game through Kickstarter, as the developers of Expeditions: Conquistador proved. They got $77k. I've been really enjoying their game for the past week.

And a recent game that achieved a lot of success on Kickstarter was an open-world cave man simulator called The Stomping Land, pulling down $114k.

A sandbox strategy/city-builder called Stonehearth hit $750k.

A first person horror-adventure called Among the Sleep where you play as a two year old child got $250k.

I mentioned Shadowrun Returns because it was supposed to be out within a couple of weeks [but got pushed back about a month].

[Howard Alan Treesong]

"if"?

[demi]

They become doctors and lawyers like their parents wanted them to be, finally.

[cool breeze]

even Ken Levine is jumping out to join the lucrative screenwriting biz

[Steve Contra]

even Ken Levine is jumping out to join the lucrative screenwriting biz

"Your screenplay is just Logan fetching shit, getting stuck in rooms and shooting his way out, and rooting around in garbage cans"

[Trent Dole]

Doesn't really sound that different from most modern day action scripts really.

[Purple Filth]

I should have a backlog still

[brob]

I have already rationalized the death of video games. I'll just play what's already there. If anything else is released that I fancy it will just be cherries to top it off.

[Human Snorenado]

It's really hard for me to think of an industry and fanbase off the top of my head that deserves what's coming more than this industry and these fans.  I hope no lube is used, and I will probably be able to sustain my wretched, twisted heart from the oceans of tears for an eternity or two.

[Don Flamenco]

even Ken Levine is jumping out to join the lucrative screenwriting biz

"Your screenplay is just Logan fetching shit, getting stuck in rooms and shooting his way out, and rooting around in garbage cans"

"No, his dad can't lead him around on a walkie-talkie, his dad is dead because he's over 30." 

"...there is no alternate parallel timeline for his dad to speak to him from!  Maybe that shit flies in video games, but this is HOLLYWOOD, Levine! I don't care how Jewish you are. Who let you in here anyway?  SECURITY!" 

[Van Cruncheon]

if?

[Powerslave]

I would like to see the big developers crash and burn with their AAA interactive movies while the indie developers steal the entire upcoming gen.

[Brehvolution]

:yiff ?

Aww it's gone.  :'(

[chronovore]

You're already seeing it.

An exodus of talent moving to iOS and Android, and PC. Low barrier to entry on hardware and SDKs. More middleware to support these, too. There'll be a push to improve Apple's storefront, but the larger revolution will be in how the next wave is marketed outside the online store, and in the real world. Expect to see more corporate patronized games.

[Cerveza mas fina]

Lets hope Sony and MS go out with a bang then.

Shenmue 3.

[Rufus]

That's not a bang that's a soft boop, followed by a dripping sound.

[Howard Alan Treesong]

part of why ATVI is so bullish on Skylanders is because the licensed goods give them a revenue stream not tied to Sony or Microsoft's retardations. expect the franchise to trend more-and-more mobile in the future.