Officially launches tomorrow. I expect it to sell millions in spite of the negative press. I think everyone is more curious to see what shape it takes in the long run. I guess I'm just stating the obvious there, but this and Wildstar are sort of test runs to see how well the sub model does at this point. FF14 Reborn outdid my own expectations, and TESO should hit some nice sales marks as well. However, they are both pushed up by namebrand recognition. Wildstar doesn't have that, so I am curious to see where it falls.
As to why I'm not in on TESO: Game has to be better than GW2 to justify a sub, and none of the games I listed are at this point. Also, despite being into PVP, and being aa WvWvW player in GW2, I feel that all PVP lives and dies on the strength of the game's combat, and the combat in beta didn't hold up. The maps were mighty good and the siege system was quick and easy to do. However, things fell down once it got into the nitty gritty of fighting. Balance is a concern early on as well. Meta needs to be more interesting than stuns + spikes.