Predict the biggest bomb of 2018

[Wrath2X]

My vote goes to Sea Of Thieves

I've seen the very few MS fanboys left out there talking about this game like it'll be a huge deal, with some of the weirdos who could never let Rare go crazy with expectations of it's success. In the real world most people don't know this game even exists, nor do they care. First person pirate MMO sounds generic without even being all that generic to my knowledge. I haven't seen any evidence of any real hype for this game, and definitely nothing to make me think it'll be quality. I expect it to fail to sell any sort of significant amount, and be forgotten a few days afterwards.

[tiesto]

Anthem, hopefully. Bioware - most overrated game company ever

[bluemax]

A list of things possibly coming out next year:

Dragon Ball Fighter Z
Monster Hunter World
Dissidia Final Fantasy NT
UFC 3
Kingdom Come: Deliverance
Metal Gear Survive
Yakuza 6
Ni No Kuni 2
The Last of Us Part 2

[demi]

All Japanese games, which bomb out the gate

[CrazyDiamond]

What's that Sony zombie shooter called again? I'm expecting it to turn out like The Order

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Does Naughty Dog plan on pinching anything out for 2018?

[bork]

Metal Gear Survive or something from EA.  Or the game from that European guy who went nutso at The Game Awards.

[Joe Molotov]

Super Smash Bro Melee 2

[toku]

dice la battlefield game

[Tasty]

Super Smash Bro Melee HD

Fixed.

[paprikastaude]

Wolfenstein Switch. It already flopped on the platforms where the target audience is.

Dreams and Detroit.

[Let's Cyber]

Kind of difficult to gauge at this point, we don't really know what the field looks like quite yet. Lots of stuff has vague "2018" attached to it and could get pushed into the following year.

Metal Gear Survive will be my guess though.

[CrazyDiamond]

What's that Sony zombie shooter called again? I'm expecting it to turn out like The Order

Days Gone.

I almost fell asleep typing that.

Yeah, that one. Everything they showed about it looks incredibly bland and I don't think they'll manage to sell that one "look how many enemies we have onscreen!" alone

Wolfenstein Switch. It already flopped on the platforms where the target audience is.

Dreams and Detroit.

Dreams sounds way too ambitious to me, at least from what I understand. Like they're promising building shit from scratch and it seems pretty ridiculous that you can model and animate stuff like that on a Ps4. Even if the game is fine by what it is they might be overhyping it just a bit

[Corporal]

I'm with Spieler1 on this.

Wolfenstein 2 Switch is pretty much fated to die. Not sure it will crater spectacularly, but it has so many factors going against it, Bethesda might as well not bother. Sequel to a game that was never on a Nintendo console, late delayed release, sold around five copies on other, more compatible platforms, was universally showered with middling reviews, to top it off: on a console that will have major problems running it.

So far it's the one game I just cannot see selling well. Not sure if other games will crash and burn worse, but I think it's a safe choice that will at least will end up on the lower rungs of the bottom.

[tiesto]

A list of things possibly coming out next year:

Dragon Ball Fighter Z
Monster Hunter World
Dissidia Final Fantasy NT
UFC 3
Kingdom Come: Deliverance
Metal Gear Survive
Yakuza 6
Ni No Kuni 2
The Last of Us Part 2

No way will DB Fighter Z do poorly, and I think Ni No Kuni 2 will do well if the reviews are good.

[Raist]

Sea of Thieves will be a cataclysmic bomba and MS will shut Rare down.

[bork]

I'm with Spieler1 on this.

Wolfenstein 2 Switch is pretty much fated to die. Not sure it will crater spectacularly, but it has so many factors going against it, Bethesda might as well not bother. Sequel to a game that was never on a Nintendo console, late delayed release, sold around five copies on other, more compatible platforms, was universally showered with middling reviews, to top it off: on a console that will have major problems running it.

So far it's the one game I just cannot see selling well. Not sure if other games will crash and burn worse, but I think it's a safe choice that will at least will end up on the lower rungs of the bottom.

I don't get why they're putting out Wolfenstein II on the Switch.  Why not start with The New Order?

[Great Rumbler]

VR. Just like this year.

[bluemax]

VR. Just like this year.

The PSVR sold pretty good during Black Friday. Other VR stuff not so much.

I hope PSVR continues to do well, because my paychecks depend on it.

[Cerveza mas fina]

Xbox

[Raist]

Isn't PSVR at 2M+ sold through? For an accessory that's more expensive than the console itself, that's pretty decent.

[BobFromPikeCreek]

I'll co-sign Sea of Thieves.

[paprikastaude]

VR is a dead end. Everyone wants it to happen because pop culture always predicted these fat glasses, but ultimately you can't make such a cumbersome setup happen. The direction needs to be drastically different in the future.

[tiesto]

VR is a dead end. Everyone wants it to happen because pop culture always predicted these fat glasses, but ultimately you can't make such a cumbersome setup happen. The direction needs to be drastically different in the future.

VR's future is in the defense, medical, and accessibility fields, not so much gaming...

[Great Rumbler]

Oh wait, almost forgot about Ataribox. Nobody's gonna buy that nonsense, assuming it actually comes out.

[I'm a Puppy!]

Is there another Assassin's Creed coming out next year? If so, that.

[thisismyusername]

Is there another Assassin's Creed coming out next year? If so, that.

[VomKriege]

I'd say Star Citizen but you cannot kill what is already dead.

[Corporal]

I'd say Star Citizen but you cannot kill what is already dead.

Ooooh, good one. The engine kerfluffle has the potential to shut down that project for good. Might not be a bomb per se, but equivalent to one.

[Let's Cyber]

Is there another Assassin's Creed coming out next year? If so, that.

Maybe. Sounds like Origins did better than Unity and Syndicate, best selling since Black Flag in the US. 

Ubisoft generally has several Ass Creeds in the pipeline at any given time going back to Brotherhood. Origins getting an extra year in the oven means the game behind it has probably been in development for around 3 years, 4 by next holiday.  The one year break in 2016 will be beneficial for the next couple of titles, basically.

As long as the setting is interesting I think it will do fine and will have had some extra time in development.

[seagrams hotsauce]

Doesn't that dumbass David Cage game come out next year? That's my pick

[Raist]

I'd say Star Citizen but you cannot kill what is already dead.

It would have to be released in order to bomb. Does not compute.

[paprikastaude]

Doesn't that dumbass David Cage game come out next year? That's my pick

Wishful thinking, but I've been at a convention where no one voluntarily wanted to play Detroit.

[kingv]

I am with everybody else says no it will be that pirate game. Cartoony pirate mmorpg seems like an insta fail.

[Raist]

You're probably in for disappointment if you're expecting Detroit to bomb hard. QD's past few games have done OK, especially considering the genre. And that was on the hum-ho performing PS3.

[kingv]

I like David cage games, sort of in the same way I like that Russian avengers knock off.

They’re not good exactly, but they are bad in a way that I enjoy them. I’m looking forward to everyone sound Quebecois and him barreling straight through some racial issues with no tact or nuance.

Like there’s probably going to be a black computer programmer or something voiced by some French dude trying to talk like Daquan, but it will be sincere and not intended to be racist.

[Brehvolution]

LAIR 2

[naff]

VR is a dead end. Everyone wants it to happen because pop culture always predicted these fat glasses, but ultimately you can't make such a cumbersome setup happen. The direction needs to be drastically different in the future.

VR's future is in the defense, medical, and accessibility fields, not so much gaming...

 

these fuckin s

[Tasty]

I'd say we're in gen 1 of "modern VR" that started with the Rift, and it'll take until gen 3 before it really starts to take off.

Like the experience of the Rift and PSVR are basically there, but the tech is way too bulky, wire-y, expensive, and cumbersome to set up and use. And( the content isn't quite there, yet.)

Once it's slimmed down to less-expensive lightweight goggles, with moderate improvements in motion sickness and resolution, and the games start flowing more regularly, it'll catch on big time. Even the Rift 1.0 feels more like an alpha prototype to me, and FB/Oculus probably feel similarly.

I do feel like there should be some kind of Open VR standard that everyone buys into though, cause otherwise it's going to continue being a big mess.

[naff]

Lol, yeah it's called OpenVR

[Tasty]

Well I mean, I want Facebook, Sony, HTC, et al. to stop being dicks and all support it fully and stop poaching exclusives.

So yeah pipedream lol.

[naff]

Yup. It's nice there are relatively open standards for those that want them at least. I didn't actually know HTC had exclusives, I tried using their store when i first got a Vive. Not actually sure how the hell that works, i 'purchased' a game (forget what) and it never downloaded. Deleted it pretty promptly opting for Steam. They seem to have realised very quickly they have no ability to develop competent software and more or less dropped their own platform relying solely on Valve.

[naff]

my reckons: the next gen with 4/8k options will reduce screendoor to barely noticeable levels for "enthusiasts" sometime next year (some 3rd party 8k headsets are already available as replacements for the Vive headset, this is all that really defines the next gen for me), and the high end will be v enjoyable given the right hardware. Late 2019 marketing will be in full swing for the mainstream, an entry level 8k headset, controller and console capable of a steady 120fps in their hottest apps (candy crush and minecraft vr) will be the hot xmas ticket selling ~cost for $449 with price gouged modules available e.g. wireless hdmi add-on, teledildonics etc

[VomKriege]

I'd say Star Citizen but you cannot kill what is already dead.

It would have to be released in order to bomb. Does not compute.

I made a huge faux pas and should have said "you cannot kill what doesss not live".

I am with everybody else says no it will be that pirate game. Cartoony pirate mmorpg seems like an insta fail.

Sounds like a pitch for a popular F2P mobile game.

And yeah, I'm sure Cage will grace us with an hilarious game but I wouldn't expect it to bomb per se.

[Eel O'Brian]

Crackdown  3

It's probably nowhere near being finished, and they'll end up releasing it in a completely busted state with the world destruction pared down to nothing.

[benjipwns]

honestly i figured that was doomed when they announced that David Jones was back working on it, also that Ruffian Games had left and it was instead yet another Realtime Worlds spin-off company now also working on it

between that and Dead Island 2, Sumo Digital is going to have a shitty 2018 (they made more news on important gaming forums with Snake Pass's Switch icon saga last year despite having both these games in their purview for two years, along with being the Windows/second team on Forza)

when they really need to be making Sonic and All Stars Racing Transformed 2

[benjipwns]

speaking of zombie survival exclusives and Microsoft, State of Decay 2

[benjipwns]

Darksiders III could be one if THQ Nordic has the same absurd expectations that the original THQ did (II sold like 2 million copies or something before THQ went under and they said it fell well short of expectations...which is nuts, the first game only did a million or so)

[chronovore]

Crackdown  3

It's probably nowhere near being finished, and they'll end up releasing it in a completely busted state with the world destruction pared down to nothing.

I really want that one to not-suck, but there's almost no chance of catching lightning in a bottle again.

Kind of difficult to gauge at this point, we don't really know what the field looks like quite yet. Lots of stuff has vague "2018" attached to it and could get pushed into the following year.

Metal Gear Survive will be my guess though.

In one way, I wish MGS' success was not so much the cult of personality thing going on, but I really think most of it is associated with "Kojima-sama" and I'll admit that I just don't share that enthusiasm. On the other hand, most reports say that Konami practices the absolute worst company culture in a very competitive race here. So I guess I am not sanguine either way.

I'll cast my vote with you.

speaking of zombie survival exclusives and Microsoft, State of Decay 2

Nope. This is going to be great.

[bluemax]

They had Detroit on display at PSX, it looked like a David Cage game. They also had a really weird marketing thing going with people being the Androids walkin around all creepy like. It was unsettling.

I don't think it will bomb, because there are people who are into his jank, but it isn't gonna be some major blockbuster either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_in_video_gaming

I feel like No More Heroes is a potential bomba, but Switch only owners are weird.

Others:

Extinction
The Last Night
Vampyr
Greedfall
Biomutant

[benjipwns]

Nope. This is going to be great.

Oh, sorry, I didn't even mean to suggest anything I listed might be good or bad games really, just that it bombs sales wise, especially relative to the publishers expectations. Like, I don't imagine Darksiders III to likely be necessarily any worse than the first two games either, but unless THQ Nordic is more realistic than THQ was regarding the franchise's potential...

The first State of Decay was essentially like Torchlight, the first step and a game to launch things until time for the MMO, that turned into a big surprise hit. So as people were mentioning Sony's zombie horde survival exclusives it also popped into my head, especially with the current state of the Battle Royale/Survival genre since its release, as facing a much tougher time sales wise. Even if it's ten times better as a game.

A converse of this logic is also why I didn't include some of the ones in the link bluemax mentioned which I could see turning out as far worse games but may not be being considered as anything likely to be large sales wise pre-release.

NMH is for example a tough one because I don't know if we're thinking about it as the surprise hit the first game was on the Wii (which itself was a bit of a surprise hit, while having Nintendo loyalists snapping up all kinds of "hardcore" stuff) which still only sold like 500,000 copies worldwide...and the sequel did quite a bit worse than that and neither sold much to Japan. So it's hard to judge what will constitute the upcoming Switch exclusive being a bomba or not. I mean we only have ten million Switches globally to start with so far, the first game had more Wii's than that in just the U.S.

[kingv]

I feel like with the current user base of the switch, switch exclusives are likely to hit at least half a mil.

Im not sure whether to think of those as bombs or not with a user base that small. It’s like Bayo 2. Sure it probably sold less than a million, but it still probably had like a 3-5% attach rate, which seems solid given the user base.

[paprikastaude]

Attach rate as a pro argument has always been such desperate nonsense. It's a natural effect when your console hasn't sold much or straight up flopped. Games that sold more than WiiU in its entirety have a lower attach rate on their platform than Bayo 2 - i.e. it's a meaningless number for most discussions. If you had a console that sold 10 copies it would be a normal eventuality that all 10 owners had the same game. Claiming "100% attach rate" won't make them their money back though.

[HardcoreRetro]

It's looking like it's gonna be North Korea with the tsar bomba V2. America might put on a good show though.

[kingv]

Attach rate as a pro argument has always been such desperate nonsense. It's a natural effect when your console hasn't sold much or straight up flopped. Games that sold more than WiiU in its entirety have a lower attach rate on their platform than Bayo 2 - i.e. it's a meaningless number for most discussions. If you had a console that sold 10 copies it would be a normal eventuality that all 10 owners had the same game. Claiming "100% attach rate" won't make them their money back though.

I think you always need to have some understanding of sales expectations or at least budget before you can really say if something bombed. It’s fairly easy with EA and Activision, because they always swing for the fences, but it is harder with smaller budget stuff.

The Yakuza games might barely break a million worldwide, but that must be within expectations because they keep making them.