I have it like so:
1. Dirk
2. Nash
3. Kobe
4. Duncan/Arenas (tie)
Dirk deserves it for several reasons, not the least of which is that he got shafted last season (better numbers than Nash and a better team record last year). Nash is actually making his
best case for MVP this season (~20/12 and 50+% from both 2
and 3?

), but I'd give Dirk his first sooner than I'd give Nash his third (which would put him in some elite company), both because Dirk is having at least an equally impressive season from an individual and team stanpoint as well as the fact that, as noted previously, he was outright robbed last year.
So it's Dirk for me thus far, without question. Nash has a slight edge on Kobe (I'd say 5-10% if I had to quantify it); Kobe, in turn, has a similar edge on Duncan/Arenas imo. The Lakers and Spurs have comparable records despite key injuries for LA and Kobe is playing better ball than Duncan is this season.
Malek, good call on noting the team record for past MVP winners. I'm pretty sure your rankings were in-conference, but it's interesting to note that only
twice in the last 20 years did the MVP come from a team that was not a top 3 team
in the entire league, record-wise. Those two exceptions were Jordan in '88 (when he just had a ridiculous year and they overachieved) and Nash last season -- and Nash's team had the
fourth best record in the league. That's why it makes me laugh when people say that Kobe got robbed last year. No, he didn't -- not based on the historical precedent and the implicit criteria for the award, at least. Players from 45-win, 7th seeded teams with the 10th best record in the NBA just don't win MVP.
</Kobe bashing>
