PD Still Doesnt Get Politics: Reason XVI Why McCain Will Lose

[Cheebs]

Political Insider a respected political outlet put out a interesting look towards the general election. Their final assesment? McCain can't beat anyone. He loses no matter what. However they see a chance for both Rudy and Romney to win. And I am sad to say yes Romney would win Michigan if he was the nominee.  Michigan LOVES the Romney family.


Is looking this far away insane this early? Yes it is but it further rubs it in PD's face that McCain is seen as someone who will lose so let me be.

REPUBLICANS:
1) Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) - He could pick up NH (4 EV) with his residual strength there from the 2000 election. It's hard to see McCain switching any other states, except for perhaps PA (21 EV) based on his crossover appeal to moderates. He would likely hold on to all of the previous red states except for IA (7 EV) due to his opposition to ethanol. Presuming he wins NH and loses IA and all other states stay the same from 2004, McCain would win 283-255.

2) Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) - One would presume Romney would run stronger in MA (12 EV) than any other Republican candidate, but it's hard to see him pulling it off. Bush lost MA by 25 points (albeit against a hometown Dem candidate), but Romney was certainly not a lock to win re-election in MA had he chosen to run for re-election as Governor. A far more likely possibility is turning NH (4 EV) since the Boston media market covers 80% of NH. The other possibility is Michigan, where his father was Governor from 1963-1969 and was exceedingly popular after also serving as an auto-executive in Michigan (17 EV) where he made his fortune. Bush only lost MI by three points after making a strong effort to win that state in 2004. Romney would be likely to retain all of the red states against a generic Dem nominee, although he might have more narrow margins in the South because of his religion. Presuming Romney wins NH and MI he would win 307-231.

3) Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NYC) - Giuliani might be attractive because he would likely put New York (31 EV) and New Jersey (15 EV) in play, even if he ran against Sen. Hilary Clinton (D-NY). It's more likely he could turn NJ, since Bush only lost there by seven points, as opposed to 19 in NY. Giuliani as a much more moderate candidate, so there is concern he could lose IA (7 EV) and maybe Missouri (11 EV)? Presuming he wins NJ and loses IA, he would win 294-244.

DEMOCRATS
1) Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - Hilary would likely play well against a Republican in Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, and Ohio (all states her husband won both times). If she won those won, she would gain 44 EV, putting her over the top at 296-242. It's hard to see her losing any of the states Kerry won.

2) Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) - Obama would likely bring IA and OH into play, and if he won those he would pickup 27 EV, winning 279-259. It's hard to see Obama losing any of the states Kerry won.

3) Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) - Edwards would presumably win his home state, NC (15 EV) and also IA and OH, taking him to 294-244. Ditto on the blue states that Kerry won.

Based on these predictions:

McCain v. Hillary - Hilary wins 292-246 (picking up IA, MO, AR, and OH and losing NH)
McCain v. Obama - Obama wins 275-263 (picking up IA and OH and losing NH)
McCain v. Edwards - Edwards wins 290-248 (picking up NC, IA, and OH and losing NH)

Romney v. Hillary - Hillary wins 275-263 (picking up IA, OH, MO, and AR and losing NH and MI)
Romney v. Obama - Romney wins 280-256 (picking up NH and MI, losing IA and OH)
Romney v. Edwards - Edwards wins 273-265 (picking up NC, IA and OH and losing NH and MI)

Rudy v. Hillary - Hillary wins 281-257 (picking up IA, OH, MO, and AR and losing NJ)
Rudy v. Obama - Rudy wins 274-264 (picking up NJ and losing IA and OH)
Rudy v. Edwards - Edwards wins 279-259 (picking up NC, IA, and OH and losing NJ)

[CajoleJuice]

So Hillary and Edwards are both unbeatable?

[Cheebs]

So Hillary and Edwards are both unbeatable?

As of today(and I realize a lot can and will change, this is more of a anti-pd liking mccain topic):
Ohio has turned insanely democratic and thrown out nearly every elected republican in 2006 so as of 2007 it is a Democratic lock.

Arkansas is 100% loyal to hillary even though it is deep south. She has almost endless connections there. She'll win Arkansas even if she ran as a Nazi. Alone that is enough to make her unbeatable. I don't know anything about Iowa and Missouri.

Hillary is unlikeable but a much better politician and campaigner than Kerry was still. Seeing how bush has dropped from 50% approval when Kerry ran to under 30% there is no feasible way for her to lose those unless something changes. And Ohio is now a lock, again unless something changes.

All Democrats need to win is keep the Kerry states and pick up Ohio. Ohio threw out nearly all republicans in 2006. They have became strongely democrat, not just due to national problems but the local Ohio republican party became a complete corrupt mess.

For a Democrat to lose, Hillary or anyone they will have to mess up. BADLY.

[CajoleJuice]

I see.

All I know about politics is from the threads you make to mock PD.

[Flannel Boy]

She'll win Arkansas even if she ran as a Nazi.

That would actually increase her popularity there. ZING

[Cheebs]

Remember about PD. Around the start of 2006 most "pundits" were already saying the democrats would take control of the house.

PD said the Republicans would hold onto it until mere weeks before the election

[Phoenix Dark]

I said the Democrats wouldn't win the house and senate. I conceded they'd take the house but didn't believe they'd take the senate. And I was very close: the dems barely won the senate.

If it's come down to McCain vs Hillary, there is no doubt that McCain will win. I will take that to my grave.

Edwards? Yeah, I think he could beat McCain and possibly any other Republican if he gets a good, credible (IE, not Obama) VP.

The problem with these polls is that they don't take into consideration real life factors; this is why I'm always hesitant about polls like this. None of these polls calculate just how hated Hillary Clinton is among conservatives. Yet Cheebs would have us believe that all these conservatives magically disappeared last November. The Republicans were hurt by a lack of unity and the decrease of evangelical support. If you don't think Hillary will bring back Republican unity you're mistaken; once again, polls don't calculate that.

The Democrats took the presidency in 2004 running an "anyone but Bush" campaign. An "anyone but Hillary" campaign will be far more successful, trust me. It's not even about McCain

[Cheebs]

I said the Democrats wouldn't win the house and senate. I conceded they'd take the house but didn't believe they'd take the senate. And I was very close: the dems barely won the senate.

If I wasn't banned I'd do a search. I know for a fact you said they would get the senate but not the house at least twice and both times I chastised you about it. 

[Phoenix Dark]

Bullshit. I know I said they wouldn't get the senate

I'm not discussing anymore political polls, "expert opinions", or bullshit in general until the actual races begin

[Diablos]

So Hillary and Edwards are both unbeatable?

As of today(and I realize a lot can and will change, this is more of a anti-pd liking mccain topic):

b-b-b-but Hillary is so hated etc