How much of a gamble is it to buy roundtrip tickets for next April/May?

[213372bu]

Tickets are extremely cheap right now, as some of you may know, ~1/6th the cost of normal
Roundtrip flights from Florida:
Italy/South Korea/Spain- $800
Germany-$900
Japan/United Kingdom - $600
Canada - $300

My reasoning:
-Influx of Trumpbux has netted me a surplus of funds that I can't use
-Vouchers and refunds are mandatory in the US (so far)
-Other countries (if the trend continues) will have processed to a state of normalcy
-People in my state are openly hostile about being anti-mask, walking around in any local public space is more risky than taking precautions in other countries
-At worst I would need a 14 day quarantine at a hotel (if airports still don't have access to COVID testing), and at this point I wouldn't mind.

[EchoRin]

I would still hold off to see how the US (and I guess the world) handles this summer.

[jorma]

you won't necessarily get a refund if the travel ban is still in effect but the flight isn't cancelled

[Akala]

it's not bad but imagine no one will let you in from US without a quarantine, fresh test, proof of insurance that would cover COVID treatment, etc. so there may be additional costs to factor in. a lot of airlines are letting people swap for a year with a possible re-up after that.

[Madrun Badrun]

It's a gamble to assume even state to state movement will be possible in April. 

[Akala]

we could all be vaccinated by then 

[CatsCatsCats]

Well if trump loses, the dems are gonna enact fema camps, so, idk man

[james]

Dude I flew from NYC to Spain, round trip, for $256 last year.

800 is highway robbery

[james]

Dude I flew from NYC to Spain, round trip, for $256 last year.

800 is highway robbery

It's $319 from NYC to Spain then, but it's $800 from Florida.

Get yourself a $22 spirit ticket between NYC and Florida

[chronovore]

tl;dr: We may have a method for lessening risk, but COVID is a new kind of horribleness. The world is not ever going completely back to the way it was.

It seems possible that we'd have a vaccine in place by April 2021, but everyone seems to forget how the influenza vaccine is only partially effective. It covers 60% of the strains for that year. Mutations cause a need for new vaccines every year, and they're still not entirely effective.

But influenza doesn't leave recovered patients with organ failure, as COVID appears to do. While some people are asymptomatic, and others suffer on the scale of a mild cold, and even people who suffer the more common, dreadful symptoms appear to recover in 2~3 weeks, there are a growing number of cases where people are sick for MONTHS. And there are cases where the organ damage to kidney, heart, liver, or lungs requires replacement organs.

We are going to need new safeguards and new behaviors, in addition to medical solutions.

[Transhuman]

I guess you could just get travel insurance a
nd it wouldn't matter right

[thisismyusername]

tl;dr: We may have a method for lessening risk, but COVID is a new kind of horribleness. The world is not ever going completely back to the way it was.

Sure, but that doesn't mean Tourism is gonna completely stop. If a vaccine happens, I'm sure tourist boards are going to be like "yeah, get the vaccine and head on over with papers that confirm you have it."

@21337: It's wayyyy too soon to even be thinking about "next year" right now, even though we're in the back-half of this year. Given that rest of the world is banning the US and we're in the second (of very many until somewhat sane lawmakers do shit) wave right now, I wouldn't think of dumping the money.

If you've got a savings account, just leave it in that, it'll make a few dollars for you in the meanwhile.

[Trent Dole]

Man I have a show I was gonna attend this Spring that's currently set for Spring '21 and I have my doubts about that happening since it's an international performer, you're nuts to grab airline tix for then right now unless they're refundable.

[chronovore]

I guess you could just get travel insurance a
nd it wouldn't matter right

Are you fucking with me?

My sister posited the same thing to me recently, and I had to clarify for her, so I’ll do you the same courtesy:

No.

Travel insurance means I can pay for treatment if I catch it. It means my family is less likely to go bankrupt if I catch it.

It’s still every fucking bit as possible to catch it. Catching it means spreading it. Catching it means I’m likely in for a rough few weeks, possible organ damage, and death. But depending on how much treatment is required, my widow might not be stuck making medical payments for the rest of her life.