My Bet: Trump resigns in the weeks to come

[Tasty]

I don't know how you can argue an possible Pence administration is more dangerous when Trump's inactions has helped caused a large number of Coronavirus deaths.

Pence would have had the same number of deaths but due to being skilled in policy no one would have gotten a stimulus check, either.

[Tasty]

[Kara]

I don't know how you can argue an possible Pence administration is more dangerous when Trump's inactions has helped caused a large number of Coronavirus deaths.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/us/politics/mike-pence-needle-exchanges-indiana.amp.html

  Mike Piss

[brawndolicious]

Pence is dangerous because he'd be more focused and effective at implementing policy.

Hence my argument.

A lot of Trump's worst stuff has been rolled back. His most dangerous aspect is his base, who are galvanized the further he stays in office. SCOTUS works. Congress failing to get anything passed is... more or less how it should work considering the big picture. Trump had the worst war hawk in living memory yelling in his ear to bomb more of the middle east, and he still basically refused.

Pence is Cheney.

Dude if it's your last day of work, would you be more concerned about your boss that was incompetent, exploitative, and always did micro-aggressions against your demographic or would you be more worried about a crackhead that walked in waving a gun?

There's only six months left of this term and there's pandemic and on top of that no Republican legislation could get through a Democratically controlled House. Cheney was good at influencing powerful people to gain power for himself. Pence is just a rubber stamp.

[Himu]

can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

Ruining the post office amid a pandemic. Luckily (or unluckily) black people like myself do not trust the post office to deliver our mail in ballots on time (I requested one for July runoff and got a letter saying my application was wrong a few days before the election day on July 14, the letter was sent on June 20 something and it was now way past the deadline to resend for corrections). Because of that experience I will now be voting irl at the booth. Via early voting of course. I went early in July and the place was empty and full of masks and sanitizer. Felt more clean than the grocery store.

[Himu]

can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

A debate would be a disaster for Biden.

Also that sumg fart sniffing arrogance from Liberals. Of all places fivethirtyeight. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/

Would it? Bernie people like myself thought Bernie would destroy Biden in the debates once it was just the two of them. The opposite happened. Biden is surprisingly good at deflecting Trump argumentation as well and would constantly call trump out on his shit. Trump is a bad debater. All he does is call people names and make extraordinary claims. He has to rely on aides to bring back pandemic recovery details in an interview on Fox news.

Trump, after his bad pandemic and protest responses, combined with endless scandal over his presidency, would be on the defensive. The idea that Biden would lose is cute. Trump has a lot to answer for and a debate would absolutely put more sweat on his brow as an incumbent rather than in 2016 as a fake populist upstart.

[Himu]

Pence is dangerous because he'd be more focused and effective at implementing policy.

Hence my argument.

A lot of Trump's worst stuff has been rolled back.

Um. Source please. Environmental law, white collar crime, less regulation for health/safety standards (trump wants asbestos legal), political corruption with impunity...these things are flourishing and even if Trumpism dies it will take decades to reverse some of the damage done.

You really, really need to provide a source for this claim. It is wishful thinking at best, willful ignorance at worst.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/06/most-trump-environmental-rollbacks-will-take-years-to-be-reversed/

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2017/03/how-trump-is-changing-science-environment/

https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/tracking-deregulation-in-the-trump-era/

[Himu]

I don't know how you can argue an possible Pence administration is more dangerous when Trump's inactions has helped caused a large number of Coronavirus deaths.

Pence would have had the same number of deaths but due to being skilled in policy no one would have gotten a stimulus check, either.

Republican governor's have been spiraling because of a lack of cohesive national plan for Covid.

They have weekly meetings on what to do with Pence, not Trump. But all of this is what if at this point.

[Nintex]

If they have an exit strategy, I think that they do actually, this is what it probably looks like and the card will be played at the RNC in Florida, or at least that was the plan.

1. Trump can't resign in the middle of the pandemic but he also can't lose to Biden as that would destroy the 'myth' of Teflon don. So he announces he's not running for re-election due to undisclosed 'health reasons' he is willing to share but the family wants to keep private. Now it is clarified, this is not a mental issue or something that will kill him in office but something severe enough that it won't allow him from serving another full term. Through Axios a story leaks that is an early stage cancer.

2. With so little time left the Republicans default to Mike Pence but part of this deal was that Pence would pick a 'Trumpist' as VP, this can be Don Jr., Ivanka, Carlson, ... my money would be on Ivanka.
She has been with Trump on most foreign trips and while Jr. is an 'attack dog' he's also stupid and Trump knows this. Plus Jr. and Eric are both in charge of the company and the trust fund so they can't really do anything presidential in politics until dad is out of office.

3. They engineer a couple of 'health scares' so Trump is rushed to hospital from time to time to score sympathy points. Despite some hating his guts the media and Democrats find it difficult to attack a 70+ year old man dying of cancer and his grieving family.
Ivanka will give an emotional interview a month before the election and pleads that the nation allows her father to die in peace when the time comes.

A) Pence/Ivanka win the election
The plan works, the Democrats find it difficult to run Biden against Pence, who's simply more coherent. It's also hard to attack the GOP on women's issues with Ivanka as VP campaigning hard for the women's vote.
Which she also did for daddy in 2016. About 6 months into the administration Trump is magically 'cured' and plays an active part in the administration. Pence will be a one term President, Ivanka will be at the top of the ticket in 2024.

B) Biden/??? win the election
Trump will say he didn't lose because he didn't run and that Pence is a total loser and his daughter should've been at the top of the ticket. Like he did with the Obama/Romney race he will just keep blaming Pence for the loss, saying that he would've won bigly.
Within 6 months he is declared 100% healthy again and his next grift begins. Ivanka and Carlson are the front runners in the Republican primary of 2024.

[Mandark]

shut the fuck up

[BIONIC]

I didn’t read, but great and direct points as always, Nintex.

Please keep up the good work, friend

[thisismyusername]

can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

Ruining the post office amid a pandemic. Luckily (or unluckily) black people like myself do not trust the post office to deliver our mail in ballots on time (I requested one for July runoff and got a letter saying my application was wrong a few days before the election day on July 14, the letter was sent on June 20 something and it was now way past the deadline to resend for corrections). Because of that experience I will now be voting irl at the booth. Via early voting of course. I went early in July and the place was empty and full of masks and sanitizer. Felt more clean than the grocery store.

AFAIK, if you do mail-in, you can drive it to the office of elections and drop it off there without sending it by mail.

[Tripon]

Just.... why write fanfiction.

[Mandark]

Just.... why write fanfiction.

he's deeply invested in a parasocial relationship with donald trump

it's emotionally painful to admit his boy is a loser so he invents convoluted scenarios as a way to feel better. see also qanon

[Himu]

can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

Ruining the post office amid a pandemic. Luckily (or unluckily) black people like myself do not trust the post office to deliver our mail in ballots on time (I requested one for July runoff and got a letter saying my application was wrong a few days before the election day on July 14, the letter was sent on June 20 something and it was now way past the deadline to resend for corrections). Because of that experience I will now be voting irl at the booth. Via early voting of course. I went early in July and the place was empty and full of masks and sanitizer. Felt more clean than the grocery store.

AFAIK, if you do mail-in, you can drive it to the office of elections and drop it off there without sending it by mail.

I don't think you understand.

I applied for a mail in ballot. Something came out wrong, and I got my application sent back to me. Deadline for mail in ballots was July 2. I got my letter back after that date. The letter was sent back to me on June 20 something. I didn't receive it for almost 2 weeks after the fact, by which point mail in deadline already passed.

I refuse to even consider the possibility of mail in now because even applying can go wrong.

I'll vote irl instead.

I will and have relayed that you can take it to the office of elections to others that want to mail in but I will not be making that choice.

[Human Snorenado]

I know multiple people in GA that applied for mail in ballots for the primary and received them after the primary date (keep in mind the primary was delayed TWICE so not a very good track record, in addition to all of the past and recent history GA has with voting rights issues... yeah, I wouldn't trust it here in GA either)

Another factor is that in GA (different in every state) the only real way to know your vote has been counted on the state Sec of state's website is to do in person early voting, which is what I plan on doing.

[VomKriege]

can someone please tell me, barring a disastrous moment for Biden like the comey letter, how anyone could reasonably argue that Trump will win?

After last time, I think there's no harm in trying to avoid complacency and by campaigning as if you were the challenger (which Biden is). There's no harm to it. Well apart from letting everyone down once in office after repeating IT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION IN YOUR LIVES.


There's a pandemic going on already disrupting the organisation of the election, the incumbent is unpredictable and you can't really rule out that one of the many October Surprises™ the Trump campaign will undoubtedly conjure could stick.

I guess the TLDR is : I don't see Trump stepping down before the vote.

[Himu]

I know multiple people in GA that applied for mail in ballots for the primary and received them after the primary date (keep in mind the primary was delayed TWICE so not a very good track record, in addition to all of the past and recent history GA has with voting rights issues... yeah, I wouldn't trust it here in GA either)

Another factor is that in GA (different in every state) the only real way to know your vote has been counted on the state Sec of state's website is to do in person early voting, which is what I plan on doing.

This exactly.