Impossible. There is no way the Wii will win anything. The Wii has yet to build up any sort of rapport among the casual audience who chose GTA and Halo over Mario and Zelda last gen. Nintendo has essentially forsaken that group of people in order to cater to another group of people who may or may not exist - the non gamer. I recognize Brain Age sold well, and continues to, but this does not mean you make a system to cater to those people. A 40 year old mom might buy Brain Age, and like it, but does that make her a contributor to the game industry? Sure, she has bought a DS and Brain Age, but is she going to go out and buy more games? "Games" that don't get massive media blitzes and ads in Time magazine? I doubt it.
Graphics, whether we like to admit it or not, are important, and they will be even more important this gen. There are many casual gamers out there who think the Gamecube is the weakest of the systems. These are the same people who declare Nintendo to be childish and kiddy; mind you, these people have never posted on a gaming message board or payed attention to E3 speeches, yet they have already labeled Nintendo. This mindset has not gone away, and the Wii certainly isn't helping. Red Steel having no blood isn't helping either. Until Nintendo recognizes that the casual market wants more than Zelda and a confusing Metroid Prime game, they will remain in third place. And I'm sure they couldn't care less, for it is beyond clear now that the only thing Nintendo is interested in is profit. If they can sell upgraded Gamecube with a gimmick thrown on or an updated N64 with a gimmick thrown in, they'll do it and watch their money pile up.