What will happen to the big retailers (GameStop/EBX) as games go online?

[Ichirou]

What do you guys think will happen as physical copies are slowly replaced with downloads (which is what MS's long term plan seems to be)?  No more used games means no more used games market to make a profit off of...how will chains like GameStop survive twenty years or so down the line when they can't rely on selling used stuff for profit?  I don't see them making much all that much money from just selling consoles and accessories.

Sorr for the slightly misleading topic, I just couldn't fit it into the header with the limited space.

[Ichirou]

Twenty years from now? I'm pretty sure most games will have gone online by then.

[Vizzys]

nope

not if nintendo has any say about it

[Ichirou]

nope

not if nintendo has any say about it

Nintendo's leading the way with their virtual console thingamabobble.

[Vizzys]

leading the way?

If you meant games with online? no, not this gen

You meant delivering games via online, and thats XBLA in the lead.

Still those are more of arcade games.

Maybe in twenty years when eveyone has fast cheap bb, IF that happens.

[The Fake Shemp]

Not going to happen for a long time.  The amount of data on a disc even now far surpasses what could be easily downloaded with most people's broadband.  Not to mention that people like physical copies and that online copies have no resale value - the used market is a huge profit margin for GameStop, but it also helps folks unload old, crap games for new, crap games.  Can't do that with a download.

[Ichirou]

Not going to happen for a long time.  The amount of data on a disc even now far surpasses what could be easily downloaded with most people's broadband.  Not to mention that people like physical copies and that online copies have no resale value - the used market is a huge profit margin for GameStop, but it also helps folks unload old, crap games for new, crap games.  Can't do that with a download.

Well, that's sort of the point of the thread: That if/when game consoles go download only for games, it's going to kill the retail stores. I'm asking how they're going to survive once that used market disappears.

EDIT: And I'm sure MS and Sony and Nintendo have already thought that through and will let you transfer your license to another user, while disabling/deleting the game on your own console...and, of course, adding a little service fee from the company.

[Vizzys]

It wont happen.

Maybe a console will come along that does it...(phantom LOL) But it will fail if thats the only means of playing games.

[The Fake Shemp]

Well, that's sort of the point of the thread: That if/when game consoles go download only for games, it's going to kill the retail stores. I'm asking how they're going to survive once that used market disappears.

But it's not going to disappear.  None of the manufacturers are ever going to let you resale a download and what would be the point.  From a console manufacturer standpoint - brick and mortar stores are a good thing.  They push units, physical copies reduce piracy and stores are a central part of marketing.  And that's the dilemma - digital distribution helps publishers, but the console manufacturers need brick and mortar stores to push units, peripherals, etc.

This doesn't even address the technical limitations, which won't be addressed for decades.  Digital distribution, save for a game or two, is just not feasible and certainly won't phase out brick and mortar stores for a long time.

Instant gratification alone (see Drinky & Friends) is reason enough to believe that retail stores will continue to exist.

[The Fake Shemp]

For previous gen games, there isn't an issue.

Yeah it is!  If you think most people have the capability of downloading PS2 games easily - you're nuts.  It's difficult enough to explain to your average consumer how to even use a physical disc on an actual machine.  You expect them to have broadband capable of large downloads and then access them accordingly?

I know digital distribution sounds awesome to guys that post here, but we also represent a relatively small demographic in the industry.  You're naive if you think ALL console owners even access the Internet and furthermore, that people are capable of following a digital distribution model.  Maybe sometime in the future, but for now, the people posting here are the only folks that will adopt such a model.

[The Fake Shemp]

I'm sure, sometime in the future, we will shit lasers and piss shekels, but who knows when that will be.  But to think that in 20 years that will be the case is kind of crazy.

[The Fake Shemp]

And you still bought videogames at brick and mortar stores

[Ichirou]

Willco, seriously, look at how the world has changed in twenty years.  Maybe because my parents were always the last to adopt new technology my perspective is a bit different, but when I was a kid, our TV didn't have a remote control, we listened to vinyl records, we didn't have a VCR until the mid-'80s...so to go from what life was like for me as a child and to what technology is NOW...and considering how MS is pushing downloadable content (and make no mistake, they are betting that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be the last physical storage format for movies, and they're not the only ones), I don't think it's too far out there to think that in twenty years we might have switched to download-only content for both games and movies.

[The Sceneman]

fuck that, physical copies are cool and you own something tangible and stuff. people said the same shit about cds back in 1999 'ohhh in the future everyone is gonna buy all their music as a digital file off the net' I would never pay money for that shit. Cds FTW

[The Fake Shemp]

Willco, seriously, look at how the world has changed in twenty years.  Maybe because my parents were always the last to adopt new technology my perspective is a bit different, but when I was a kid, our TV didn't have a remote control, we listened to vinyl records, we didn't have a VCR until the mid-'80s...so to go from what life was like for me as a child and to what technology is NOW...and considering how MS is pushing downloadable content (and make no mistake, they are betting that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be the last physical storage format for movies, and they're not the only ones), I don't think it's too far out there to think that in twenty years we might have switched to download-only content for both games and movies.

Technology may have changed, but the way we buy it (for the most part) has not.

You really haven't brought anything to the table in regards to any of the points I mentioned other than... HAY TEH FUTURE - IT'LL CHANGE STUFF WE DON'T EVEN KNOW, MAN!

[Ichirou]

Willco, seriously, look at how the world has changed in twenty years.  Maybe because my parents were always the last to adopt new technology my perspective is a bit different, but when I was a kid, our TV didn't have a remote control, we listened to vinyl records, we didn't have a VCR until the mid-'80s...so to go from what life was like for me as a child and to what technology is NOW...and considering how MS is pushing downloadable content (and make no mistake, they are betting that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be the last physical storage format for movies, and they're not the only ones), I don't think it's too far out there to think that in twenty years we might have switched to download-only content for both games and movies.

Technology may have changed, but the way we buy it (for the most part) has not.

You really haven't brought anything to the table in regards to any of the points I mentioned other than... HAY TEH FUTURE - IT'LL CHANGE STUFF WE DON'T EVEN KNOW, MAN!

Wow, dude, you don't have to get nasty about it...I'm not sure what you want me to reply to.  Your point regarding broadband?  Well taken, but look at how far download speed has come in the past ten years...HAY TEH FUTURE...because I have no other reply for that, hehe.

"None of the manufacturers are ever going to let you resale a download"...well, we're just speculating on that part, and I agree that it's unlikely to happen (though I mentioned a possible way).  The manufacturers don't really care, though!  The used games market is a slice of the pie that doesn't belong to them, and I don't doubt that it's something they'd love to replace via virtual console or emulation, as a way to resell older games on newer consoles to gamers.

The part about shitting lasers and pissing shekels? Now, that's just silly.

The twenty year figure was just thrown out there for the sake of it - would you prefer to change it to 30 years?  Go ahead.  Doesn't alter the fact that sooner or later there is going to be a fundamental change in how these companies do business.  And I don't know why you're acting like such a jerk towards me in this thread when I've tried to be respectful and open to debate.

[Fragamemnon]

Valve sort of figured out most of the technical issues behind digital delivery and sale of large content. If you haven't used Steam lately, it's worth looking at and poking around in julst to see the tech and design decisions they made.

The download/bandwidth limitation is not really a problem-for preorders and what not, you just preload the game and then unlock the content already on the drive when the game is released. Existing games aren't too much thornier-remember, today's game sizes are a full result of creative assets, which can be easily segmeneted and loaded in sequential order so that the gamer might not ever know after a semi-large initial download. I know that Exent and Microsoft already have similar tech like this in the field.

I'd say that the consoles will probably embrace it in five-six years or so in the hardcore-targeted consoles, which lines up pretty well with the "generation" gap of next gen. It will probably come in a hybrid model, where games are sold at retail and through digital delievery.

There's more advantages to digital distribution than just bypassing the brick and mortar overhead or ensuring that a game sale doesn't get resold. There are things that you can easily do with digital delivery that you can't do with brick and mortar stores easily-bundling games and downloadable content to new offerings, creating multi-game purchases with discounts, and do all sorts of promotional limited-time offers and what not would require tons of logistics to work out directly in retail.