International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster

[VomKriege]

Here's an article about the several Turkish coups of the past half century to give some context
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/04/20124472814687973.html

[toku]

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/754062224331800576

[VomKriege]

I guess you could say it's pretty much the same dynamic than in Egypt, Algeria and all over the region with the army defending a more nationalist, "western" inspired notion of modernism, being to an extent the only champion available to progressives of all strides against a very popular undercurrent of religious inspired conservatism. Ataturk did get on with it much earlier and Turkey did fare better at it to the point its addition to the European Union is very much credible in abstract, even if mired with major political obstacles in practice.

[VomKriege]

https://twitter.com/GuillaumeDaudin/status/754064937086058497/photo/1

Erdogan being forced to use FaceTime to appear on TV.   

[Let's Cyber]

"I'm totally still in charge" says guy from his iPhone in undisclosed hotel room

[VomKriege]

https://twitter.com/saramill/status/754059759406444544/photo/1

And according to Reuters :

One European Union source told Reuters that the military action "looks like a relatively well-orchestrated coup by a substantial body of the military, not just a few colonels".

[jakefromstatefarm]

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/12/turkeys-deep-state-has-a-secret-backchannel-to-assad/

Hearing that they're fighting close to parliament now.

[Let's Cyber]

Watching Sky News, the crowds are getting very large

[Rufus]

https://twitter.com/Stratfor/status/754068991887409152

Erdogan seeking asylum in Germany.

What a strange year.

[VomKriege]

Former president Gul also appearing on FaceTime. 
https://twitter.com/abdullahawez/status/754079278401253376/photo/1

The main public TV channel, TRT, has allegedly stopped broadcasting after journalists there took photos of soldiers in the building.

[Sausage]

So who's leading the coup

[Rufus]

A "military faction", near as anybody can tell. Seems everyone has come out in condemnation of them so far.

[Kara]

https://twitter.com/Stratfor/status/754068991887409152

Erdogan seeking asylum in Germany.

What a strange year.

Can Böhmermann make fun of him now?

[Madrun Badrun]

Too bad Erdogan wasn't killed.  Then again, many that live deserve death. And some that die deserve life. I guess I should not be too eager to deal out death in judgement. For even the very wise cannot see all ends.

[VomKriege]

So who's leading the coup

According to Erdogan, his former ally now exiled Fethullah Gülen, which is supposedly a very moderate islamist political thinker with an important following. In reality probably a junta of military leaders. A manifesto of the coup was aired on TV and denounce the creeping instigation of an autocracy, want to reestablish civil liberties and the constitution. The recent terrorist attacks out of the Levant clusterfuck also apparently fueled some of the unrest.

Reading the snippets of international reactions, one doesn't feel a lot of love for Erdogan. Everyone is concerned and hope for a peaceful resolution but nobody has been exactly grandstanding about the sanctity of President Erdogan's mandate. I suspect the EU, Russia and Israel would all feel much more at ease with a Turkish regime less focused on any form of political islamism.

EDIT : Obama and Merkel have come out with clearer statement that democratic rule ought to be respected.

[brob]

coup haven't secured parlament? they just ran up assuming they could drive some tanks up and flex it out? making a mockery of turkey's long and storied history of military coups smh

good a time as any to raid İmralı tho, Öcalan hasn't published a book in forever I'm worried about the boy 

edit: the conspiracies are coming fast n thick already
 

[VomKriege]

Yeah, you would have expected something much more clean and definitive by such specialists as Turks. The army not getting his way for the first time would be quite the symbol, and the sign that Erdogan did achieve to put it on a leash, although I'm too ignorant of Turkish affairs to really have an opinion on how positive this would be.

[Mr Gilhaney]

Köksal Baba 2016

[Great Rumbler]

https://twitter.com/putintintin1/status/754065801100029953/photo/1

When you're using Facetime to let people know that you're still in charge of your country, that's not really a very good sign that you actually are.

[VomKriege]

The situation is very "fluid", as it is proper to say when you are a serious member of the establishment, aka it's turning into a SNAFU. The real extent of the coup is unknown. Police in Istanbul is reporting shooting at passing jets, which suggests air control is not as tight as the officials said. Parliament has suffered at least two explosions. Istanbul airport at least one, a few minutes after Erdogan is supposed to have come back via plane. TV and radio channels are being invested by soldiers and seems to change hands every hour or so, CNN Live Feed is still on despite all employess being held by soldiers off screen. It seems unfortunately pretty certain that several civilians were killed by gunfire in Istanbul.

EDIT : Opposition parties have stated they disavowed the coup and stood with the AKP for a return to legality.

[VomKriege]

Holy shit some dude in a tshirt, obviously drenched in sweat, appeared on the set of CNN Turk, fumbled with a portable mic and is now obviously trying to do a broadcast or a phone call while there's lots of shouting in the distance.

More people seen now in the background, walking.  Dude is still texting and trying to make phone calls...

[brob]

https://twitter.com/wrightr/status/754123700140511233

the best kind of political turmoil is the one where every outcome is terrible

[Atramental]

Köksal Baba 2016

 

Stay safe, Baba. 

[TVC15]

Any word on body count yet?

[Madrun Badrun]

https://twitter.com/putintintin1/status/754065801100029953/photo/1

When you're using Facetime to let people know that you're still in charge of your country, that's not really a very good sign that you actually are.

That video of tanks running over citizians

[TVC15]

https://twitter.com/putintintin1/status/754065801100029953/photo/1

When you're using Facetime to let people know that you're still in charge of your country, that's not really a very good sign that you actually are.

That video of tanks running over citizians

I don't know if we're talking about the same video, but I saw one promising that and it was really disappointing. You couldn't really see anything at all. It was tamer than even that so-called "NSFL" video of that cop in Dallas getting shot.

[Great Rumbler]

https://twitter.com/wrightr/status/754123700140511233

the best kind of political turmoil is the one where every outcome is terrible

I had the same thought earlier. A failed coup isn't just going to end with everything going to back to the way it was pre-coup, it's going to end with Erdogan getting payback and then tightening the leash even more.

[fizzel]

Kemalism is fucked.

We're gonna have another Islamic shithole on Europe's doorstep.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

The military is supposed to be a secular check on political power and with the failure of this coup, that's no longer going to be the case moving forward.

[Rufus]

Onwards, backwards.

[Rufus]

The purges have started. First: involved military. Second: more than 2500 judges.

[Cerveza mas fina]

hard to believe that shithole is a nato member

[VomKriege]

hard to believe that shithole is a nato member

 
We both know Turkish membership has nothing to do with its current situation or whatever naive delusions we all would like to share about due political process and decency. The original founders of NATO had several countries keeping hold of vast colonial holdings through force including an actual dictatorship. Turkey is a key location for European defence and they are a partner willing to play ball on a lot of critical plans. As most Europeans, I am likewise worried that one of the most functional progressive & secularist project in that region is going down the drain, but Turkey is still very far from being hostile.

And while I'm ambivalent on the whole thing, the coup fizzling that fast is rather a proof of Turkish's resiliency.

[VomKriege]

In the BBC feed :

As Turkish Airlines restarts flights from Istanbul's Ataturk Airport, South African holidaymaker Nic Hodgson has been describing scenes of great frustration at the airport today.

Absolute disgraceful service from Turkish Airlines. Now 2.30pm Saturday and not one announcement about what is happening (...) The largest airline in the world that they market as the best airline in the world and this is the scene at a lounge desk, where we managed to find one staff member. There have been no announcements and nothing posted on any airline electronic board so thousands of passengers in the terminal are completely without information about when and if their flights may resume.

Nic says the Cape Town office of the airline told him that as the coup attempt began all Turkish Airlines staff were sent home.

We did not see one staff member at all throughout the night and until well after 10am this morning. The commercial side of the airport is back up and running smoothly and in the Lounge, where we escaped to during the stampede last night and while jet aircraft flew overhead, there is not one staff member serving any drink or food and there is nothing to eat after more than 12 hours.

 

[Cerveza mas fina]

motherfucking people complaining about drinks in the middle of a coup

these are the people that voted brexit no doubt

making a case for euthanasia

[Madrun Badrun]

Kinda disappointed the coup failed.  Turkey just keeps going down hill.

[Rufus]

Yeah, this will only lend more legitimacy to Erdogan. I'd hoped to at least find out more about his son's alleged oil business with ISIS.

The fact that they started with Erdogan out of the capital kind of already spelled doom for this. How is he not your first objective? Brob posted somethig earlier which sounds more and more plausible to me by the day. The government knew this was doomed, so they let it happen to serve as justification for whatever other plans Erdogan had in the drawer.

[Cerveza mas fina]

coup failed cause while erdogan might be an idiot he was chosen and has support

[VomKriege]

So far the investigation into the man who drove the truck in Nice haven't turned anything in the way of establishing a newfound religious fervor (except that he may have had stopped drinking very recently, but that's gleaned from one neighbour anecdote). Plenty of stuff on anger management issues however, including some episodes of domestic violence towards his now ex-wife; potential depression.

Maybe they'll find something on the computers, but really the whole terrorism assumption seems to hang on almost excusively on the fact he was a muslim (and barely even that observant, according to the people of his native town in Tunisia). There's a lot of grasping at straws about the "context" and how ISIS has preconised somewhat similar method of actions for would be terrorists with no access to guns & explosives. It is incredibly tenuous and I think politicians and medias are doing a disservice pushing that kind of shit around.

[naff]

The fact that they started with Erdogan out of the capital kind of already spelled doom for this. How is he not your first objective? Brob posted somethig earlier which sounds more and more plausible to me by the day. The government knew this was doomed, so they let it happen to serve as justification for whatever other plans Erdogan had in the drawer.

The idea the government knew about an attempt and allowed it to occur is less outrageous than the idea that Erdogan initiated the coup himself, and there are a lot of questions about how badly executed the coup was.

Equally difficult to prove is the Erdogan regimes claim that this was orchestrated by Fethullah Gulen, and that he is responsible for the parallel power structures within the Turkish military and government. He had supporters sure, but Erdogan has been on a run removing anyone associated with Gulen from power for the last 3 years...

[VomKriege]

About that, there was a lot of people shouthing "Reichstag Fire !" but to my knowledge the Nazi implication in this is a theory with no consensus from historians and very little evidence to substantiate it. Almost an urban legend.

The fear of having been found out and therefore lauching early and poorly prepared is a common occurence in failed uprisings.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

[naff]

About that, there was a lot of people shouthing "Reichstag Fire !" but to my knowledge the Nazi implication in this is a theory with no consensus from historians and very little evidence to substantiate it. Almost an urban legend.

The fear of having been found out and therefore lauching early and poorly prepared is a common occurence in failed uprisings.

Who were shouting reichstag fire? Also, Erdogan does kinda remind me of a modern day Franco. 

In the end it doesn't matter if this was their Reichstag Fire moment or not, unless something came out to sway public opinion. Conspiracy theorists are so annoying, yeah your theory is plausible, so what? I guess if your soapbox is big enough you could use your theories without proof to influence opinion... Anyway,  the effect is the same, and now he gets to start excising "the gang" en masse.

[Rufus]

The GAF thread was full of references to Hitler last time I looked. It's not just there though. Not surprising, given Erdogan's autocratic ambitions.

[brob]

http://www.kurdishquestion.com/article/3289-kurdish-movement-releases-statement-on-turkey-coup-attempt

also seen tweets about clashes between AKP and Kurds/Alevis in Gazi, but idk, scant reporting. And several bozkurt pics, but AKP supporters have been openly fascist for a while so I guess there isn't much to be scandalized by there...

[VomKriege]

Who were shouting reichstag fire? Also, Erdogan does kinda remind me of a modern day Franco. 

Lots of people in the GAF thread and elsewhere. Not directed at anyone here. Wanted to bring this up, because that's one exemple where the myth overtook reality and that's being brandished as the textbook example on expert political puppet mastering.

(Image removed from quote.)

The "operational reserve" (don't ask me, there's some byzantine definitions of different reserves) will be used to relieve a part of the French soldiers now being commited to the "Sentinelle"  operation aka the deployment of soldier foot patrols on French territory (most notably in railway stations, public & private schools...). The thing is of dubious use beyond reassuring citizens and giving a hand to police to close perimeters... It's also eating a lot of military capacity : France is already committed in many theaters overseas and Sentinelle is straining the ability to beef up or relieve properly current operations.

[Kara]

Levée en masse is back.

In pog form.

[VomKriege]

A general was on the radio the other day and pretty much said -in the neutral way public servants express themselves- that "Sentinelle" was bullshit. Soldiers are bound by very strict rules about what they can do within it really, stricter than law enforcement agents (understandably), and it obeys to a Sisyphean logic of trying to have a man behind every citizen. He argued that soldiers should be kept for their actual jobs and would better serve at potentially crushing hostile political entities abroad (notably in our Sahel and Levant operations) than idling around trying to prevent what cannot be prevented.

Current military policy plan is to make an effort on increasing reserves and how long you can be called on duty but there's a few difficulties with that : budget, keeping troops motivated and a bit of a fear that being a reservist would hurt your employability (since you will miss a few work days a year).

[Great Rumbler]

The "operational reserve" (don't ask me, there's some byzantine definitions of different reserves) will be used to relieve a part of the French soldiers now being commited to the "Sentinelle"  operation aka the deployment of soldier foot patrols on French territory (most notably in railway stations, public & private schools...). The thing is of dubious use beyond reassuring citizens and giving a hand to police to close perimeters...

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

[Kara]

I suppose this is more of an American problem, but with the proliferation of military grade hardware among the sundry law enforcement organizations out there is there even a meaningful distinction between police and military anymore? Beyond, perhaps, police officers failing harder / faster at defeating resistance movements in the third world despite having operational budgets in the billions if they were thrust into such a position.

Then there's the proliferation of private military companies on top of that.

[VomKriege]

There's still a major difference in purpose, mindset, training, hardware and the legal framing. Soldiers doing police work within a COIN doctrine is not quite the same and the perception isn't seamless : Those duties are only temporary and everyone knows it in whatever theater. The line being blurred, and it is right now, is bad news to everyone and firstly citizens of stable states with some rule of law.

Speaking of which, the drive for french reserve called upon now are specifically police and gendarmerie reserves.

[VomKriege]

The Nice truck killer may had developed a "very recent interest" for religion (googled up chants calling for Jihad, Orlando killings, and started a beard to show his faith if witness are to be believed), according to the prosecutor in charge. Still feel the looming (and could it not be ?) terrorism narrative was put forward way too strong and soon. Regardless, CCTV footage (Nice is covered with it, policy from city hall) show him scouting the Promenade des Anglais the two days before, clearly a level of planned intent.

Meanwhile the opposition (which has the city of Nice plus the MP and the region down there) is antagonizing the government on every turn of this and the prime minister had a booing welcome at the commemoration in the coastal city from the inhabitants.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Some crazy fuck injured 18 people with an axe in Germany: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/germany-train-axe-attack-live-8445573

[chronovore]

Some crazy fuck injured 18 people with an axe in Germany: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/germany-train-axe-attack-live-8445573

If only there had been a Good Guy with an Axe nearby, this problem could have been averted.

:vikings

[VomKriege]

Since May, 400 deaths attributed to police and milicias following the new policies of the populist filipino president regarding drug trafficking.

[brawndolicious]

A long time ago in Iran a prosecutor instituted an automatic death penalty for anybody holding more than a certain amount of heroin. It was successful in jacking up the price of drugs but they stopped when some politicians kid was the eventual victim.

You know that's going to happen here. But the president of the Phillipines is so crazy I'm worried there could be a coup or some sort of violent protests.

[Rufus]

Turkey's post-coup attempt purges are nuts. All of them alleged supporters of Gülen, who they're continuing to pin this on
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36838347

6k military
9k police
3k judges
15k educational staff
1.5k university deans
21k teachers at private institutions

24 radio and TV channels lost their broadcast licences as well.

And the cherry on top:

The country's Religious Affairs Directorate has banned religious funerals for supporters of the attempted coup, the Anadolu news agency reported.

[VomKriege]

They obviously had the lists ready in some intelligence folder. They must feel incredibly confident, because that's a lot of people from the public gentry to disinfranchise.

[brob]