International Politics Thread - Disease and Disaster

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

“I am a president of a sovereign state, and we have long ceased to be a colony,” Mr. Duterte told reporters before he left his country for Laos, where he and Mr. Obama will attend the meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

“I do not have any master except the Filipino people, nobody but nobody,” he said in remarks published by The Associated Press. Apparently addressing Mr. Obama, he added: “You must be respectful. Do not just throw questions.” Then, using a curse in Tagalog that can be translated as “son of a bitch,” he added, “I will swear at you in that forum.”

Yikes

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/06/world/asia/philippines-president-rodrigo-duterte-warns-obama-not-to-ask-about-killings.html

[chronovore]

“I am a president of a sovereign state, and we have long ceased to be a colony,” Mr. Duterte told reporters before he left his country for Laos, where he and Mr. Obama will attend the meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

“I do not have any master except the Filipino people, nobody but nobody,” he said in remarks published by The Associated Press. Apparently addressing Mr. Obama, he added: “You must be respectful. Do not just throw questions.” Then, using a curse in Tagalog that can be translated as “son of a bitch,” he added, “I will swear at you in that forum.”

Yikes

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/06/world/asia/philippines-president-rodrigo-duterte-warns-obama-not-to-ask-about-killings.html

http://www.smalldogplace.com/small-dog-syndrome.html

[T-Short]

“I am a president of a sovereign state, and we have long ceased to be a colony,” Mr. Duterte told reporters before he left his country for Laos, where he and Mr. Obama will attend the meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

“I do not have any master except the Filipino people, nobody but nobody,” he said in remarks published by The Associated Press. Apparently addressing Mr. Obama, he added: “You must be respectful. Do not just throw questions.” Then, using a curse in Tagalog that can be translated as “son of a bitch,” he added, “I will swear at you in that forum.”

Yikes

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/06/world/asia/philippines-president-rodrigo-duterte-warns-obama-not-to-ask-about-killings.html

Obama lecturing people on extra-judicial killings

[Samson Manhug]

Seeing a tone shift recently on Russia's intervention in Syria, nearly universally described as a decisive victory just a few months ago:

Second, the regime’s biggest problem seems to be manpower. Hard numbers are nearly impossible to come by, but anecdotal reports and battle footage indicate the number of fighters involved in any battle at one time is low, regardless of its importance. The Aleppo siege was broken by no more than 4,000 fighters, according to my conversations with members of the opposition. Opposition sources report that the assault in Hama province reportedly involves no more than 2,500 insurgents, facing regime forces in the low thousands despite the province’s strategic value. Footage of some of the regime’s defenses, and confirmed reports that regime is redeploying troops from the already imperiled Aleppo front to Hama, indicate the regime lacks troops to hold two critical fronts at once.

http://warontherocks.com/2016/09/what-i-got-wrong-about-assads-military-prospects/

And from a piece from a retired Russian officer writing in a Kremlin-sponsored publication:

The actual fighting against opposition groups is mostly done by Syrian militias, the Lebanese Hezbollah Shia units, Iranian and Iraqi volunteers and Private Military Companies (PMCs).

The main military actions Assad’s army engages in is extorting a tribute from the locals. The Syrian armed forces have not conducted a single successful offensive during the past year.

Apparently Syria’s General Staff has no coherent short-term or mid-term strategic plans. Assad’s generals do not believe their troops can bring the country to order without military aid from foreign states. They do not plan large-scale operations, giving the reasoning of ostensibly high combat capabilities of the illegal armed groups, lack of ammunition and modern equipment, a fear of heavy losses and a negative outcome of the fighting.

The Syrian army’s junior officers, NCOs and privates have little enthusiasm to charge and fight for their motherland. The general morale deterioration is exacerbated by the fact that the history of the modern Syrian army has known no military victories.

Assad’s army bears the brand of constant defeats and humiliations since the first Arab-Israeli wars of 1947-1948.

It is impossible to win the war with such an ally as Assad’s army

https://citeam.org/here-s-why-assad-s-army-can-t-win-the-war-in-syria/

[VomKriege]

There was a couple of articles on War on the Rocks recently about how the "Syria regular army" has basically devolved into a collection of paid mercenaries & militia outfits ruled by local nomanklatura bigwigs and businessmen (Here) that entered in force into Parliament last election to the detriment to the regime loyal party members.

It stands to reason that the Russian intervention would face the same issues and shortcomings than all of Western efforts. Foreign expeditions are what they are.

[Samson Manhug]

My hot take on the Syria deal as inspired by my post here yesterday:

https://insurgentsia.com/2016/09/09/russia-u-s-reach-agreement-as-syrian-forces-falter/

[benjipwns]

Syria Cease-Fire Is Violated After Less Than an Hour
 

[Rufus]

Oh my, a very small peek into the French security apparatus
http://boingboing.net/2016/09/15/french-spy-boss-admits-france.html

[VomKriege]

DGSE is not the answer to NSA. 

Otherwise 

[Rufus]

The Schneier links proves most amusing:

I continue to find it amusing the number of countries that have come forward over the years with some version of the following:

(a) Snowden is a traitor to his country. :-(
(b) Thank God for American traitors! :-)))

[benjipwns]

Democracy wins in Russia:

With 93% of the votes counted, the party has secured 54.2% of ballots and 343 seats in the 450-member parliament, officials say.

Mr Putin said his party had "achieved a very good result", however the turnout was a record low of 47.8%.

The Communist Party and nationalist LDPR both secured just over 13%.

The party A Just Russia gained just over 6% of the votes. All four parties are loyal to Mr Putin and dominated the last parliament, or State Duma.

[Syph]

lol russia

[toku]

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/10/02/may-speech-makes-it-clear-we-re-leaving-the-single-market

Britain will be trying to secure a trade deal, which usually takes about seven years, in a two year timetable. Given that it is a trade deal she will clearly be negotiating, it won’t be decided by majority, but by each member state. In some it may even require a referendum. In places like Belgium, it’ll require the agreement of local government in addition to national government. Basically, even if by some miracle she could negotiate the deal in time, she has no chance of ratifying it.

Instead, May bafflingly gave a date upon which to start negotiations. She announced it, in an offhand way, while speaking on the Andrew Marr programme this morning. She did so so flippantly that one wonders whether she even realised it gave her leverage.

Afterwards, she  asked Europe for preliminary talks. This is how Donald Tusk responded: “Once Art. 50's triggered, EU27 will engage to safeguard its interests.”

It was a clear no, followed by a robust statement of self-interest. It is a preview of the type of treatment she can expect once she goes to Brussels.

When the talks begin, she will discover that Europe does not even need to debate trade with us. The vague wording of Article 50 means it’s up to them. They can make it all about administrative divorce proceedings if they like. They now have all the cards.

The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about

 

Bonus:
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/782633174035787776

[VomKriege]

Colombia is not accepting by referendum the peace deal negociated by FARC according to the earliest exit polls...
Another failed referendum : In Hungary, Prime Minister Orban tried to get a majority approval against the refugee relocations proposed by the EU, but despite 95% of approval for Orban, the vote is void because only 45% of the whole voting population participated (opposition called for a boycott).

[Boogie]

Colombia is not accepting by referendum the peace deal negociated by FARC according to the earliest exit polls...

gawdammit

[Kara]

Colombia is not accepting by referendum the peace deal negociated by FARC according to the earliest exit polls...

Time to get paid.

[Raist]

May's speech at the Tory convention.




"Those people who argue that art. 50 can only be triggered after agreement in both houses of parliament are not standing up for democracy, they're trying to subvert it"

So, you're saying that your legislative system is undemocratic?

[VomKriege]

From what I understand, the Hungarian referendum failed because a large part of the opposition wants to go even farther on restricting refugees quotas.

So... yeah.

[benjipwns]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/05/world/americas/colombia-brexit-referendum-farc-cameron-santos.html

National referendums can also be extremely volatile, driven by factors unrelated to the issue’s merits and outside anyone’s control.

Opinion polls are often misleading because people do not form their opinions until immediately before the vote. Tellingly, they often abandon those views just as quickly.

Professor Marsh of Trinity College Dublin said he had found, in some cases, that “most people can’t remember any arguments for — this is about a week later — they can’t remember any arguments against, and they’re not really quite sure why they voted yes or no.”

He added, “That doesn’t inspire me, really, with referendums.”

The ambient noise of politics can also distort popular will: Whether one party is up or down in the polls, whether intraparty infighting over the vote spills into public, and how the news media portrays related issues all play a role.

Votes are also subject to random factors, including the weather. In Colombia, turnout for the referendum may have been depressed by a hurricane that hit the day before, forcing evacuations in some areas.

oh okay

[Great Rumbler]

Sometimes people vote and then something bad happens.

[VomKriege]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/05/world/americas/colombia-brexit-referendum-farc-cameron-santos.html

That's a weird article

Voters must make their decisions with relatively little information, forcing them to rely on political messaging — which puts power in the hands of political elites rather than those of voters.

And defering to a professional class of career policians don't ?

“This is a tool that’s risky, but politicians keep using it because they think that they’ll win,” said Alexandra Cirone, a fellow at the London School of Economics. But often they do not win, and instead of resolving political problems, the referendums create new ones.

That reads as a very entry level discussion about why referendums can be bad. It's not wrong either really, though it is (willingly or not) fairly patronizing to citizens (I'm sure Colombian voters don't have a real opinion on their own that will last beyond the week about a decades-long civil war with dozens of thousands victims that upturned the whole country), but most of the observations in the article can be applied to almost any election.

“The idea that somehow any decision reached anytime by majority rule is necessarily ‘democratic’ is a perversion of the term,” Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard, wrote after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.

If only we had slaves to perfectly emulate the democracy of our Greek forefathers !

[Joe Molotov]

"Every nation has the government it deserves."
~Taylor Swift

[Great Rumbler]

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's vitriol against the United States took another caustic turn Tuesday, when he threatened to "break up" with the US and said President Barack Obama can "go to hell."

 

[Samson Manhug]

Direct democracy is great until you’re on the wrong side of it. Then it’s time to start disenfranchising people. It is known.

[Madrun Badrun]

Direct democracy is never great.  The masses need to be ruled.  I miss imperialism.  Those were the days. 

[toku]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/07/lse-brexit-non-uk-experts-foreign-academics

Leading foreign academics acting as expert advisers to the UK government have been told they will not be asked to contribute to any government analysis and reports on Brexit because they are not British nationals.

“It is utterly baffling that the government is turning down expert, independent advice on Brexit simply because someone is from another country,” said Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrats’ EU spokesman. “This is yet more evidence of the Conservatives’ alarming embrace of petty chauvinism over rational policymaking.” (...)

The Foreign Office was said to be concerned about the risk of sensitive material being exposed as article 50 negotiations over Britain’s exit from the EU, and subsequent talks on its future trade and other relations with the bloc, got under way.

But Steve Peers, a professor of EU law at the University of Essex who has advised the government, said it should be “perfectly possible to get useful input from some of the best-qualified people in the country” without anything sensitive being revealed. “I don’t really get the security or sensitivity argument,” he said. “Whatever the reasons, this will come across as hostile, narrow and xenophobic.” He tweeted: UK govt previously sought work& advice from best experts. Just told I & many colleagues no longer qualify as not UKcitizens #Brexit @LSEnews

[Rufus]

Of course a true Brit wouldn't ever think to pass something on.

Can't even doubt the given reason, since I have no idea what else they could hope to accomplish with this.

[VomKriege]

Estonia claims Russia is moving nuclear capable Iskander M missiles in their Kaliningrad enclave base.

[Raist]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37586587

British expats living in the EU are suing European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker over his order to prevent informal Brexit discussions.

 

morganfreemangoodluck.gif

[toku]

Estonia claims Russia is moving nuclear capable Iskander M missiles in their Kaliningrad enclave base.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/07/russia-moving-nuclear-capable-missiles-into-kaliningrad-says-estonia

[Raist]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/09/businesses-will-not-be-named-and-shamed-for-employing-foreign-wo/

She said: "This is not data that will be published. There will be absolutely no naming and shaming. This is about informing policy so that we understand which areas and part of the country there are skills shortages evidenced by the fact that employers are not taking local workers as much as they might do. It then enables really to tailor policy in those areas so we can respond to that."

Coming from a government that is happily doing its best to further tank an already shitty education system, I have trouble believing this.

[VomKriege]

Britain is really going deep in that rabbit hole, isn't she ? Didn't expect those sort of questions being given any sort of credence (apart from the obvious administrative issues linked to the exit) and moreover adressed that way.
We're probably following suit in a few years on the other side of the Channel though. Fier comme un coq et les pieds dans la merde.

While Farrage is doing his jubilee tour opening for Trump as the International Jewry Globalist NWO Dragon Slayer in the US, UKIP is doing great :

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukip-lawmakers-face-probe-after-altercation-1475837512

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37561065

[Cerveza mas fina]

Let all the brits stay I say, but they have to pass language tests of the countries they reside in and renounce their British nationality.

Living in Spain but don't speak Spanish on high school level? Adios!

[VomKriege]

I also hope we can hope moderate Britishmen to report and denounce loudly in the media the actions of their more radical elements, for instance when hooligans fuck shit up in an European city.

[Cerveza mas fina]

Well today I found out there are only 3.3 million muslims in the usa, versus 19 million in the european union.

[Great Rumbler]

Well today I found out there are only 3.3 million muslims in the usa, versus 19 million in the european union.

[Madrun Badrun]

3.2 million black men in bowties

 

[Raist]

Let all the brits stay I say, but they have to pass language tests of the countries they reside in and renounce their British nationality.

Living in Spain but don't speak Spanish on high school level? Adios!

Well that'd be 99% of them back to England then.

[jakefromstatefarm]

France (6 million) and Germany (5 million) make up more than half that total. The UK* and native Bosniaks add 1.5 million each. Wikipedia has shit demographic information for Spain but I feel pretty safe spotting Iberia for an additional couple hundred thousand of that total. so that's roughly 4.5 million for the entire rest of the eu

*

[Cerveza mas fina]

So whats your point?

10% of the population here in Copenhagen is muslim

[benjipwns]

The Lithuanian Greens became the second largest party in their parliament after the first round (PR vote) after having no PR seats. (Greens had one constituency seat.) The lead party and in-government Social Democrats fell to third. The former second party Labour (which is more sorta mushy centrist than the name implies) also got decimated and left with no seats after this round. Looks like maybe people abandoned Labour and in part the Social Democrats for the Greens.

The second round (the other half of their seats are constituencies) is on the 23rd. Based on the 2012 election the differences between the first round and second round in terms of the order were not too major, though looking back the second-round seems to favor the largest "right" and "left" parties with a boost but otherwise distributes seats close to the first round. I imagine knowing what half the parliament looks like going in leads to more strategic second round voting for making up a coalition.

The PR% from 2012 -> 2016 (70 total seats):
Homeland Union (main conservative/christian democrat party): 15.1% -> 21.7% (+7 seats)
Peasant and Greens Union: 3.9% ->  21.6% (+19 seats)
Social Democrats: 18.4% -> 14.4% (-2 seats)
Labour Party: 19.8% -> 4.7% (-17 seats)

[VomKriege]

So whats your point?

10% of the population here in Copenhagen is muslim

I think the point is that speaking of the EU (or Europe) in that context is not the most useful. Former colonial powers, economic powerhouses and/or countries with a Med coast probably accounts for most of muslim population (home citizens + immigrations) and, I would guess, immigrants in general. And to your latest remark, the same is also probably true within countries with capitals and major cities being the most diverse.

For France, the recent poll by IFOP estimate that there's a little under 4m muslims in France, including 3m French citizens.

[Rufus]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/07/theresa-may-is-following-enoch-powell--by-actually-listening-to/

Evoking Enoch Powell
The shoe fits, but it's strange to see it put so plainly.

[jakefromstatefarm]

So whats your point?

that using the eu as your yardstick elides the distribution of the population you're looking at. You could come up with a similar number from just including western Europe 

[VomKriege]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/07/theresa-may-is-following-enoch-powell--by-actually-listening-to/

Envoking Enoch Powell
The shoe fits, but it's strange to see it put so plainly.

Not every aspect of her conference speech was so admirable, though. If she is seriously thinking of pursuing a sub-Keynesian approach to the economy, with state intervention in the private sector, she should think again before the markets force her to do so. In the post-Brexit world she is commendably determined to bring about, interfering with a free-market approach in business and imposing regulation will be the easiest way to shoot our new economic and trading arrangements in the foot. There are certainly abuses of remuneration in some companies, but it is the shareholders’ job, and not the state’s, to sort that out.

Reclaim your sovereignty to not use it in the economy ! 

[Cerveza mas fina]

So whats your point?

that using the eu as your yardstick elides the distribution of the population you're looking at. You could come up with a similar number from just including western Europe

so? still 4 times as many muslims per capita in the eu then in the us

I dont see the point of looking at internal distribution when comparing eu to the us

[Samson Manhug]

Did you expect it to be comparable? There are no Muslim countries in this the Western hemisphere.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

(Though interestingly there are some in the Caribbean)

[close]

[VomKriege]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/12/former-boyfriend-of-murdered-british-woman-killed-by-philippines-police

Nothing new but that Filipino business is legit crazy.

[toku]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37627308

During the EU referendum, Vote Leave claimed leaving the EU could save the UK £350m a week in contributions.
But an unnamed cabinet minister has told Newsnight that the UK may end up "paying quite a lot" of that money to secure access to the single market.
The government said it would not give a "running commentary" on negotiations.
The UK's contributions to the EU became one of the most contentious issues in the EU referendum campaign after Vote Leave pledged to repatriate £350m a week - its estimate of the UK's gross weekly contributions to the EU.
This is reduced by subsidies paid to the UK and by the UK budget rebate.

[Madrun Badrun]

[chronovore]

I can't even laugh at this as an American, because that's the same emotion-riddled, non-thinking response most Trump supporters carry, except they want more segregation, less government handouts with an exception for Walmart employees who need them, and a reversal on suffrage.

[Raist]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/14/no-extra-money-for-nhs-theresa-may-tells-health-chief

Theresa May has told the head of the NHS that it will get no extra money despite rapidly escalating problems that led to warnings this week that hospitals are close to breaking point.

The prime minister dashed any hopes of a cash boost in next month’s autumn statement when she met Simon Stevens, the chief executive of NHS England, senior NHS sources have told the Guardian. Instead she told him last month that the NHS should urgently focus on making efficiencies to fill the £22bn hole in its finances and not publicly seek more than the “£10bn extra” that ministers insist they have already pledged to provide during this parliament.

She told him the NHS could learn from the painful cuts to the Home Office and Ministry of Defence budgets that she and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, had overseen when they were in charge of those departments, according to senior figures in the NHS who were given an account of the discussion.

 

Because obviously, it's just as reasonable to cut spending on public health as on defense.

[Rufus]

Are there actually useful cuts to be made, or are they just paving the way for a private option?

[toku]

Are there actually useful cuts to be made, or are they just paving the way for a private option?

I think it's the latter.

[Raist]

Are there actually useful cuts to be made, or are they just paving the way for a private option?

There really aren't. The NHS is a fucking mess, cuts won't fix a thing, they'd just make it worse.
Ironically, british people think it's like the best system ever, but it just isn't.

Changes need to be made, and part of that means increasing funding, even if it's via new taxes, even small ones. That's what France did 20 years ago, and the public health debt has been slashed in half and keeps going down. And we're still talking €100bln+, so the NHS deficit isn't all that terrible.

[Cerveza mas fina]

Wasnt the NHS supposed to get hundreds of millions extra every week?

promises promises

[Raist]

Wasnt the NHS supposed to get hundreds of millions extra every week?

promises promises

http://www.whatdoesborisowe.co.uk/

[Great Rumbler]

Of course they were never going to divert that money, or any money, to healthcare. Come on.

[Cerveza mas fina]

Well duh, I just love to bring it up 

[Raist]

It's cool though, they renewed Trident. They're going to need it when the EU finally makes its army and tries to conquer Britannia.