Official 2008 Election thread

[FlameOfCallandor]

http://www.iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1598

Huckabee Tops GOP Power Rankings

If the caucuses were held tonight, these are the results we would predict:

First Place

Mike Huckabee -- Upward Momentum -- Huckabee's meteoric rise came late enough in the campaign that many had already written him off, but even his skeptics here appear to be giving him a second look.  His support, cultivated by time and resources spent largely in Western Iowa while the media was busy elsewhere watching other candidates over the past several months, is solid.  And the organizational disadvantage he faced compared to former Gov. Mitt Romney appears to be diminishing.  Huckabee is the new Iowa frontrunner.

Second Place

Mitt Romney -- Counterintuitively, it seems, Huckabee's rise had little to do with Romney's own campaign.  He still makes few mistakes and is as skilled a politician as any presidential candidate from either party.  Most of Iowa's political heavy-hitters continue to stand by him.  But rank-and-file caucus-goers, many of whom remained undecided up until this point, appear to be breaking in Huckabee's favor.  Romney's support among these voters, which was fairly soft to begin with, is slowly shrinking.

Third Place

Ron Paul -- The more we think about it, the more we conclude that none of the remaining candidates on this list have a strong base of support the way Rep. Paul does.  His unlikely coalition of supporters does not include many typical caucus-goers, but they are devoted.  And to top it all off, the campaign appears to be fairly well organized here, with paid calls, visibility (television, radio, billboards), and direct outreach efforts.  Much about the Paul campaign will remain up in the air until caucus night, but a third place finish would certainly raise some eyebrows heading into New Hampshire.

[Gay Boy]

Look how awesome the Dems are doing on one of the most important issues.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071208/pl_nm/iraq_usa_funding_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. House of Representatives Democratic leaders are contemplating legislation that would give President George W. Bush $70 billion in new funds for war but without any timetables for withdrawing troops from Iraq, The Washington Post reported on Saturd

Well, the iraq issue is far less big than it was last year or earlier this year. Americans are not really angry about it as much as they were. Approval ratings for the war have continued to go up for the war over the year, right now only 48% of the country at large think we are not winning, a far higher number than earlier. And it is no longer the top issue. Health Care has out-ranked it lately.

in 2006 Americans were angry about Iraq. In 2007 they are bored of the issue. People don't seem to talk about it and the media has more or lessed dropped it from the news.

[Phoenix Dark]

Look how awesome the Dems are doing on one of the most important issues.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071208/pl_nm/iraq_usa_funding_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. House of Representatives Democratic leaders are contemplating legislation that would give President George W. Bush $70 billion in new funds for war but without any timetables for withdrawing troops from Iraq, The Washington Post reported on Saturd

Well, the iraq issue is far less big than it was last year or earlier this year. Americans are not really angry about it as much as they were. Approval ratings for the war have continued to go up for the war over the year, right now only 48% of the country at large think we are not winning, a far higher number than earlier. And it is no longer the top issue. Health Care has out-ranked it lately.

in 2006 Americans were angry about Iraq. In 2007 they are bored of the issue. People don't seem to talk about it and the media has more or lessed dropped it from the news.

Because it's getting better. Liberal media confirmed  :p

I doubt Huckabee will win Iowa. He may have all the momentum, but it'll be a miracle if he can get the infrastructure needed to take over the caucus in time (less than a month). Romney has the machinery ready to go

[Gay Boy]

Romney has the strongest organization in all the early primary states, which does matter a lot but when Huckabee's lead is so large right now, is it enough?

Yet Romney's organization and sheer massive poll numbers and the fact he is from a nearby state has NH as a lock for him though despite what happens in Iowa. His lead there is gigantic.

[Phoenix Dark]

To play devil's advocate:

If Huckabee wins Iowa, wouldn't it be possible for him to gain so much national attention that he then proceeds to kill Romney's lead in NH?

[FlameOfCallandor]

I doubt Huckabee will win Iowa. He may have all the momentum, but it'll be a miracle if he can get the infrastructure needed to take over the caucus in time (less than a month). Romney has the machinery ready to go

What machinery?

[Gay Boy]

I doubt Huckabee will win Iowa. He may have all the momentum, but it'll be a miracle if he can get the infrastructure needed to take over the caucus in time (less than a month). Romney has the machinery ready to go

What machinery?

Iowa politics is all about machinery.  Romney has the best machinary in Iowa for the GOP while Hillary and Edwards have the best machinary for dems.

[FlameOfCallandor]

Iowa politics is all about machinery.  Romney has the best machinary in Iowa for the GOP while Hillary and Edwards have the best machinary for dems.

Define Machinery

[Gay Boy]

"A political machine is an unofficial system of a political organization based on patronage, the spoils system, "behind-the-scenes" control, and longstanding political ties within the structure of a representative democracy."

It's all about wooing control over various elected officials and precinct captains in Iowa so come caucus day those in charge of the precinct are in your pocket. Because in iowa caucus you are allowed to pressure people in the rooms to vote for your candidate and openly attempt to "steal" away votes from candidates. Its awesome.

Everyone stands in a corner of a room for a candidate and then they yell at eachother trying to make them join the other sides.

[FlameOfCallandor]

"A political machine is an unofficial system of a political organization based on patronage, the spoils system, "behind-the-scenes" control, and longstanding political ties within the structure of a representative democracy."

It's all about wooing control over various elected officials and precinct captains in Iowa so come caucus day those in charge of the precinct are in your pocket. Because in iowa caucus you are allowed to pressure people in the rooms to vote for your candidate and openly attempt to "steal" away votes from candidates. Its awesome.

Everyone stands in a corner of a room for a candidate and then they yell at eachother trying to make them join the other sides.

And how is Romney doing this?

[brawndolicious]

"A political machine is an unofficial system of a political organization based on patronage, the spoils system, "behind-the-scenes" control, and longstanding political ties within the structure of a representative democracy."

It's all about wooing control over various elected officials and precinct captains in Iowa so come caucus day those in charge of the precinct are in your pocket. Because in iowa caucus you are allowed to pressure people in the rooms to vote for your candidate and openly attempt to "steal" away votes from candidates. Its awesome.

Everyone stands in a corner of a room for a candidate and then they yell at eachother trying to make them join the other sides.

...this country is fucked.

[Mandark]

Questioning whether or not politician-x is a hypocrite is useful when judging exactly how much of their agenda that person can actually pass

I don't think so.

Remember, we're talking about whether someone lives their private life in accordance with their publicly stated politics.

There are multiple qualities that affect how successful an officeholder is in pushing their program.  This doesn't seem to be one of them.

[Gay Boy]

"A political machine is an unofficial system of a political organization based on patronage, the spoils system, "behind-the-scenes" control, and longstanding political ties within the structure of a representative democracy."

It's all about wooing control over various elected officials and precinct captains in Iowa so come caucus day those in charge of the precinct are in your pocket. Because in iowa caucus you are allowed to pressure people in the rooms to vote for your candidate and openly attempt to "steal" away votes from candidates. Its awesome.

Everyone stands in a corner of a room for a candidate and then they yell at eachother trying to make them join the other sides.

...this country is fucked.

uh its been that way in Iowa since...forever? Thats how Kerry won last time, Dean had the supporters, the excitment, the money. But Kerry had the machine and organization.

[Gay Boy]

New Polling from MSNBC in 3 earlier primary states:

In Iowa:

    * Among Democrats, Clinton 27%, Obama 25% and Edwards 21%. .
    * Among Republicans, Huckabee 32%, Romney 20% and Thompson 11%.

In New Hampshire:

    * Among Democrats, Clinton 30%, Obama 27% and Edwards 10%.
    * Among Republicans, Romney 25%, Giuliani 17%, McCain 16% and Huckabee 11%.

In South Carolina:

    * Among Democrats, Clinton 30%, Obama 27% and Edwards 10%.
    * Among Republcans, Huckabee 20%, Giuliani 17%, Romney 15%, Thompson 14% and McCain 10%.

Obama is within the margin of error in all 3 states, Huckabee leads in 2 out of the 3 now.

[FlameOfCallandor]

http://lds4ronpaul.blogspot.com/2007/12/mormons-knocking-doors-for-ron-paul.html

Who better to go door to door canvassing than somebody who has already done it full time for 2 years as a missionary for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints?

In a surprising turn of events many (Mormons) Latter-day Saints are not out cheering for Mitt Romney with whom they share faith.

[Gay Boy]

http://lds4ronpaul.blogspot.com/2007/12/mormons-knocking-doors-for-ron-paul.html

Who better to go door to door canvassing than somebody who has already done it full time for 2 years as a missionary for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints?

In a surprising turn of events many (Mormons) Latter-day Saints are not out cheering for Mitt Romney with whom they share faith.

Romney has the mormon vote locked. Nearly all of his money comes either himself or Utah. I saw a poll for Mormons where he had an astonishing like 92% of mormon vote support in the GOP primary. It was in uh october I believe.

[FlameOfCallandor]

All those Pro-life, Pro-gay marriage mormons...

[Gay Boy]

All those Pro-life, Pro-gay marriage mormons...

Romney isn't pro gay marriage lol.

[FlameOfCallandor]

All those Pro-life, Pro-gay marriage mormons...

Romney isn't pro gay marriage lol.

You havnt seen those Memos where he was sucking the gay vote dick in Massachusetts?

[Gay Boy]

All those Pro-life, Pro-gay marriage mormons...

Romney isn't pro gay marriage lol.

You havnt seen those Memos where he was sucking the gay vote dick in Massachusetts?

Yeah, he was pro-choice pro-gay marriage...etc then.

But he switched all his views to appeal to the republican voter. Flip-flopper and so forth.

[FlameOfCallandor]

All those Pro-life, Pro-gay marriage mormons...

[Phoenix Dark]

Damn Hillary sure has fallen hard. But I'm even more shocked that Obama hasn't done much to pounce on her recently outside of bringing Oprah out.

[Gay Boy]

"I hope we answer the alarm clock and take this nation back for Christ."
- Mike Huckabee

[Van Cruncheon]

"I hope we answer the alarm clock and take this nation back for Christ."
- Mike Huckabee

:'( it's a sad day when i want to see ron paul take the republican nomination just because of quotes like this

[Gay Boy]

Here is something more fun:

Al Hunt reports "things are tense in Hillaryland these days" as Sen. Hillary Clinton's "once-commanding advantage" over Sen. Barack Obama "is evaporating."

Furthermore, there "are also political strains with her greatest asset and surrogate, Bill Clinton. The former president was quoted last month as saying he had really opposed the invasion of Iraq from the beginning; he later claimed he was misquoted. Top Clinton campaign officials were privately furious at the former president, saying he had revived the complaint that the Clintons lack credibility, unfairly tarnishing his wife in the process."

"For his part, the former president, one close associate says, has been bouncing off the walls at the campaign's ineptitude in the past few weeks. (It is not known if the Clintons shared any of these sentiments with each other)."

Hunt says Clinton may be "weighing a shakeup, such as bringing in former White House Chief of Staff John Podesta to direct the overall campaign. The question is whether it's too late and too awkward before those first contests, which are to be held in 3 1/2 weeks."

I can just imagine Bill getting pissed off and yelling at Hillary's campaign for letting Obama get so close this month.

[Phoenix Dark]

It's partly his fault. Clinton may be a good guy and everything, but we all know he'll say anything to win an election. The gay marriage "advice" he gave Kerry in 2004 tells you everything you need to know about him.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in Clinton's campaign quarters right now. I bet she's pissed. Obama has destroyed her leads and she hasn't had much of a chance to gain positive coverage. Hell the hostage situation was the best thing that happened to her campaign this month

[Gay Boy]

It's partly his fault. Clinton may be a good guy and everything, but we all know he'll say anything to win an election. The gay marriage "advice" he gave Kerry in 2004 tells you everything you need to know about him.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in Clinton's campaign quarters right now. I bet she's pissed. Obama has destroyed her leads and she hasn't had much of a chance to gain positive coverage. Hell the hostage situation was the best thing that happened to her campaign this month

She is still a few % ahead and has far better organization, if she can hold on to that for just 3 more weeks the nomination is hers.

Obama needs to do something, big.

[Phoenix Dark]

Oprah is big, but will she help in Iowa lol?

[FlameOfCallandor]

Clinton wont be the nomination.

[FlameOfCallandor]

http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Huckabee_stands_by_AIDS_statement_1209.html
Huckabee stands by AIDS statement

GOP presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee said Sunday that he stands by the statement he made 15 years ago that AIDS patients should have been isolated.

"I didn't say that we should quarantine," Huckabee said in an interview with Fox News, "I simply made the point, and I still believe this today, that in the late '80s and early '90's, when we didn't know as much as we do now about AIDS, we were acting more out of political correctness than ... normal health protocols."

[brawndolicious]

you cut out the part where he said he didn't mean something as extreme as quarantine.

[FlameOfCallandor]

you cut out the part where he said he didn't mean something as extreme as quarantine.

Oh, in that case.
  Huckabee

[brawndolicious]

you need to like, get therapy.  do you understand what the word "discourse" means?

[FlameOfCallandor]

you need to like, get therapy.  do you understand what the word "discourse" means?

You got owned. 

[brawndolicious]

..not really.  you really should post huckabee's full story for a thing like that.  it's of course all bullshit to pander to the religious base that he'll forget about once he gets elected/doesn't get elected but it's important to show what the exact terms of his bullshit are.

[FlameOfCallandor]

..not really.  you really should post huckabee's full story for a thing like that.  it's of course all bullshit to pander to the religious base that he'll forget about once he gets elected/doesn't get elected but it's important to show what the exact terms of his bullshit are.

I did read it. Then I posted the link and headline for anyone else that wants to read read it.

[FlameOfCallandor]

Huckabee's a real piece of shit.

Vote Mike Huckabee: Democrat for President!

[youtube=425,350]z0ZSBj8TFjQ[/youtube]

[Gay Boy]

nbc released the second half of their numbers. the national numbers. Huckabee's rise national continues:

Despite us seeing him as shitty republicans more and more seem to be seeing Huckabee as the party's savior....

Nationally
Dems:
Hillary - 40
Obama - 30
Edwards - 14

Reps:
Rudy - 24
Huckabee - 22
Romney - 16
McCain - 13
Thompson - 10

[Human Snorenado]

Edwards  :'(

[Phoenix Dark]

wtf dude, Edwards still has a chance.

Huckabee's comment makes more sense when you realize he made it in 1992.

[Gay Boy]

Thompson's failing campaign has officially pulled out of NH. His campaign attempted to go after the religious conservative Christian moral voter. It is generally accepted his small base there will go to Huckabee since he is using the thompson angle, but with success. It's really been a good week for Huckabee. Insane.

[Phoenix Dark]

Thompson is such a failure. So much hype yet he didn't seem to want it bad enough. Whether it's fair or not, he's been portrayed as a lazy bastard and hasn't done anything to combat it.

[FlameOfCallandor]

Neither Hillary or Rudy will be the nomination.

[Gay Boy]

Neither Hillary or Rudy will be the nomination.

Hillary still has the most support amongst Democrats, despite the small lead. If she can hold that for another 3 weeks its hers.

Rudy is dead. The GOP is a race between Romney and Huckabee.

[Phoenix Dark]

Neither Hillary or Rudy will be the nomination.

And neither will Ron Paul

Rudy was never a lock, the media gave him the title. The nom will either be Romney or Huckabee. And I'm willing to bet they'll run together.

On the dem side it's a 3 way tie basically. If Edwards picks up Iowa he might be able to pull a coup; either he'll win Iowa or Hillary will. Obama can take NH but we'll see. Hillary, despite all the negative news, still has huge advantages in terms of the complexity of her campaign

[Gay Boy]

Hillary, despite all the negative news, still has huge advantages in terms of the complexity of her campaign

USA Today had a favorable/unfavorable poll amongst Democrats. Hillary had higher favorables in the Dem party at large than Obama. She had 60, he had 54.

[Phoenix Dark]

Hillary, despite all the negative news, still has huge advantages in terms of the complexity of her campaign

USA Today had a favorable/unfavorable poll amongst Democrats. Hillary had higher favorables in the Dem party at large than Obama. She had 60, he had 54.

If Obama/Edwards were smart they'd start harping on the fact that Hillary's negative are so high. She's one of the most disliked political figures in modern history, even more so than Bush; at least Bush won one and a half elections. Hillary would get beat by Romney, Rudy, or Huckabee imo.

[Gay Boy]

She polls better against the republicans in all general election matchups than Obama still.

[FlameOfCallandor]

And neither will Ron Paul

Are we talking about Ron Paul now?

The republicans will not win the presidency unless they nominate Ron Paul. It's pretty simple.

[Human Snorenado]

And neither will Ron Paul

Are we talking about Ron Paul now?

The republicans will not win the presidency unless they nominate Ron Paul. It's pretty simple.

 :kylielaff :kylielaff :kylielaff

[Gay Boy]

Romney could potentially pull a general election win, his organization is pretty fucking good.

[FlameOfCallandor]

 :kylielaff :kylielaff :kylielaff

Somehow, that's the smartest thing you have ever said...

[FlameOfCallandor]

Romney could potentially pull a general election win, his organization is pretty fucking good.

you keep saying he has organization. prove it.

[brawndolicious]

The republicans will not win the presidency unless they nominate Ron Paul. It's pretty simple.

The republicans will not win the presidency unless they nominate Ron Paul. It's pretty simple.

The republicans will not win the presidency unless they nominate Ron Paul. It's pretty simple.

The republicans will not win the presidency unless they nominate Ron Paul. It's pretty simple.

I was spraying whipped cream into my mouth when I read that.

[Gay Boy]

Romney could potentially pull a general election win, his organization is pretty fucking good.

you keep saying he has organization. prove it.

you are an idiot if you need that explained. It's what his whole campaign has hinged on.

New Iowa Poll:
Mike Huckabee 39%

Mitt Romney 23%

Rudy Giuliani 8%

Fred Thompson 8%

John McCain 6%

Ron Paul 5%

Tom Tancredo 3%

Duncan Hunter 1%

[FlameOfCallandor]

New Iowa Poll:
Mike Huckabee 39%

Mitt Romney 23%

Rudy Giuliani 8%

Fred Thompson 8%

John McCain 6%

Ron Paul 5%

Tom Tancredo 3%

Duncan Hunter 1%

Those are poll numbers, not an organization.

[FlameOfCallandor]

I was spraying whipped cream into my mouth when I read that.

We really dont need to know what your boyfriend was doing to you.

[Gay Boy]

New Iowa Poll:
Mike Huckabee 39%

Mitt Romney 23%

Rudy Giuliani 8%

Fred Thompson 8%

John McCain 6%

Ron Paul 5%

Tom Tancredo 3%

Duncan Hunter 1%

Those are poll numbers, not an organization.

I wasn't talking about organization there. You can't just SHOW organization with a little blog or wikipedia link like yours. It's intangible.

[FlameOfCallandor]

I wasn't talking about organization there. You can't just SHOW organization with a little blog or wikipedia link like yours. It's intangible.

Because you are talking out of your ass.

[Gay Boy]

I wasn't talking about organization there. You can't just SHOW organization with a little blog or wikipedia link like yours. It's intangible.

Because you are talking out of your ass.

Yeah me. Not every single political news media who always credits romney's organization as his biggest strenght.