The game will win GAF goty anyway.
All MGSs do, every sony fanboy will vote for it. Then they cry for the rest of the next year about how MGS didn't won awards in the media.
I think Fallout 3 and LittleBigPlanet will really mix things up. Don't forget that 2 years ago, Oblivion was GOTY from almost everywhere and Fallout 3 is following in its footsteps. Other than those two, I don't think anything else coming out this year will top MGS4. The only thing that could really cause a real change would be if RE5 came out this year, but it won't and 2009 will be RE5 awards everywhere.
I do expect GTA4 to get (undeserved) awards from various websites this year, but oh well.
I was talking about GAF. And no, LBP is just a fad right now, Fallout 3 will get love from 360 and Pc owners i suppose, but 360 and PC and Wii fans will divide votes a lot.
Ps3 fanboys will have one target, MGS4.
As far as real awards, the ones devs give to each other etc, you know, the awards that count, because you really don't need to get an award by the fans, the award fans give to devs is $, so the game that sells the most is the big award winner, anyway, as far as real awards i can see it going between Fallout 3/LBP/GTAIV/Gears of War 2. That's my prediction right now.
I don't see MGS4 winning anything other than technical awards. Which makes sense.