Yea, the economy will be the determining factor in November. Say what you will about Chris Matthews but I loved how he grilled that gop strategist on the point, lampooning the idea that people are simply rejecting democrats because they're spending so much money. Tomorrow could be the start of good things, with the possibility of positive job growth for December's numbers. Republicans will greet that news with calls to suspend stimulus spending, but I think it will give the senate more momentum to get the jobs bill passed...without republican support.
Unfortunately, unemployment will still be high in November, and regular people will still be hurting. Dems have to convince them that things are getting better, and remind them that the GOP hasn't done shit for them in years. By that time, Obama will have
-passed health care (with many good provisions going into effect early)
-passed an energy bill
-passed immigration reform
Last two should get liberals excited to some extent, even with compromises. And the first one will at least show independents that the republicans are truly full of shit.