"A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics

[Dickie Dee]

Dunno, after finding him a disappointment* (if only against his transformative potential) Obama has been rocking it this last month or two, whether it's a finally intelligent moderate middle east policy or clowning TEH DONALD, he seems like he has his mojo back.

I don't know how many times I've seen people say this. If this are going well, it's because of some fluke. Obama does some things right, some things wrong. He's a mediocre president. But it's not helping that a substantial portion of the American people are a bunch of lowly, anxiety-ridden, gun-clinging, bible-clenching, reality-denying freaks.

He's never going to stop being Obama the moderator when there's no moderation to happen (I use that apart from "moderate", whatever that bullshit word now means), but he does seem to be a bit smarter about it lately.

[Mandark]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110519/ap_on_el_ge/us_gingrich_iowa_5

"It's going to take a while for the news media to realize that you're covering something that happens once or twice in a century, a genuine grass-roots campaign of very big ideas," said Gingrich. "I expect it to take a while for it to sink in."

[Great Rumbler]

"This is going to be a campaign that constantly changes, that constantly evolves," said Gingrich.

On Sunday, Gingrich told NBC's "Meet the Press" that Ryan's plan to replace Medicare with a voucher system was a radical change that he opposed. On Tuesday, Gingrich called Ryan to apologize for his comments.

[Oblivion]

Hey, at least there's one Republican that believes in evolution.

In other news, John Hunstman has gone full tea-tard:

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_05/political_whiplash_huntsman_sc029709.php

Here's my question, though. I realize that Huntsman (and other GOP candidates) do things like this cause they need to prove their tea bagger bona fides to Republican primary voters. Yet I still question the wisdom of moving towards the right on issues like medicare. Yes, you have far right wingers voting in the primaries, but I would think a good chunk of those right wingers happen to be old people. Old people that tend to LIKE medicare too.

I just think there's only so many rich and/or young tea baggers you can attract with such policies. You can pretty much rely on old people to go to the voting booths since they have nothing better to do. Why alienate them?

[Dickie Dee]

The Republican base is simply more rabid and more dominant than before FULL STOP, whether that's just fueled by hightened fear in economic uncertain times (let's cut UI benefits to prosperity!), or fear of a black planet/prezz I don't know.

Although I do believe the birther movement is pretty much entirely racial driven and wouldn't be dumb enough to suggest otherwise. Beyond the birther nonsense let's remember that many of probably the same folks just decided to consider Clinton's presidency illegitimate ipso facto, and found the blowjob clause in the constitution to prove it.

They've never been "Center Right." Just constrained, and now that they pretty much feel unconstrained and the shitshow begins.

[Boogie]

and to think, mere months ago, we were all panicking based on the idea that Obama being re-elected was doomed.

laugh with me...

[youtube=560,345]b-IWH3HQUPc[/youtube]

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

I don't think any serious Republican contender will run in 2012, preferring to wait until 2016, gambling on the prospect that the teabagger movement will be dead or near dead at that time.  Any Republican that isn't extreme right or has worked with a Democrat once in their 20-30+ years in politics will get roasted, having to explain away their horrible misdeeds of working with socialists ad infinitum.  All that does is leave clowns like Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich, the bottom feeders that would get 1-2% in the primaries at any other time in less than recent GOP history.

Not that I feel sorry for them.  They chose to let teabaggers run wild and now they effectively run the party.  Now they're going to have to deal with the consequences.

[Boogie]

My only regret is that it doesn't seem like Palin is going to run.  Too bad.  :'(

[Phoenix Dark]

I don't think any serious Republican contender will run in 2012, preferring to wait until 2016, gambling on the prospect that the teabagger movement will be dead or near dead at that time.  Any Republican that isn't extreme right or has worked with a Democrat once in their 20-30+ years in politics will get roasted, having to explain away their horrible misdeeds of working with socialists ad infinitum.  All that does is leave clowns like Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich, the bottom feeders that would get 1-2% in the primaries at any other time in less than recent GOP history.

Not that I feel sorry for them.  They chose to let teabaggers run wild and now they effectively run the party.  Now they're going to have to deal with the consequences.

Fringe candidates have excelled during the earliest parts of republican primaries before, that's nothing new or exclusive to this election.

I'd say Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman, and Daniels are serious contenders and they're all running. But they all seem to have some major flaw that will hurt them in the primary or in the general...except for Pawlenty. Which is why I think he'll get the nomination; at some point the anti-Romney religious right folks are going to pick their man, and it has to be Pawlenty.

Obama is vulnerable; the economy is improving slowly, but there's no telling how much it will improve by October 2012, or how the public will perceive the economy's progress by then. I think Romney could have been a potent threat if he wasn't such a flip flopping mess. Daniels could be dangerous, and of course Huntsman is a solid candidate - or was until he declared the Ryan budget to be the best thing ever.

[Mandark]

GOP primary voters aren't making the Ryan budget a litmus test.  Newt's problem was his tone.  A Republican candidate simply can't attack an identifiably conservative proposal as "right wing social engineering", even if it's not that popular.  It's exactly the sort of ham-handed triangulation that drives liberal activists crazy when Democrats do it.  He pulled a Lieberman.

The smart play about the Ryan budget is to obfuscate.  Never get pinned down as supporting or opposing it, talk about the deficit generally, turn the question around to attack Democrats every time you're asked about it ("They're trying to shut down any discussion about balancing the budget, and that hurts the country blah blah"), and eventually release a white paper that cuts the deficit by making a lot of vague claims about promoting growth and cutting waste.

I swear, I could run for president as a Republican better than some of these chumps.

[Human Snorenado]

That's because most of them know they're not going to win even if they get the nomination and are just running to stay in the Washington Wingnut Welfare line.

[Phoenix Dark]

But still, most republicans don't support turning Medicare into a voucher plan. There are plenty of tea party folks who do, but in the grand scheme of things they don't determine who wins a general election. And yet these freshman republicans seem far more concerned about being challenged by a farther right winger in the primary than facing a moderate democrat in a general election, with Obama at the top of the ticket.

Republicans and democrats love to champion popular causes they know will never be passed, whether it's ending tax cuts for companies who ship jobs overseas or a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. Sometimes those causes are aimed directly at the base and aren't popular with everyone else, but ultimately won't kill your election chances. Yet here we have republicans openly and proudly calling for Medicare as we know it to be dismantled. I really have no idea what's going on here.

[Human Snorenado]

These people are stupid, basically.

[Phoenix Dark]

But they're usually smart enough to win elections.

[Mandark]

Voting for the Ryan plan was a mistake, as was Gingrich openly trashing it.

Showing support for something that won't get passed or will get vetoed isn't necessarily a waste of time.  It can keep that issue on the agenda and maybe get it passed in the long term.  That bad bankruptcy bill had been proposed for years and years before it got through, and a version of the FMLA was vetoed by Bush 1 before Clinton signed the final bill into law.

But yeah, you typically don't risk substantial backlash over a symbolic gesture.  At least when the GOP shot itself in the foot over Social Security privatization they had majorities and an initial hope at getting it passed.  I think a lot of GOP Reps just badly misjudged the meaning of the midterm victory and forgot themselves.  Dumb politics.  Dumb policy.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

I don't think any serious Republican contender will run in 2012, preferring to wait until 2016, gambling on the prospect that the teabagger movement will be dead or near dead at that time.  Any Republican that isn't extreme right or has worked with a Democrat once in their 20-30+ years in politics will get roasted, having to explain away their horrible misdeeds of working with socialists ad infinitum.  All that does is leave clowns like Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich, the bottom feeders that would get 1-2% in the primaries at any other time in less than recent GOP history.

Not that I feel sorry for them.  They chose to let teabaggers run wild and now they effectively run the party.  Now they're going to have to deal with the consequences.

Fringe candidates have excelled during the earliest parts of republican primaries before, that's nothing new or exclusive to this election.

I'd say Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman, and Daniels are serious contenders and they're all running. But they all seem to have some major flaw that will hurt them in the primary or in the general...except for Pawlenty. Which is why I think he'll get the nomination; at some point the anti-Romney religious right folks are going to pick their man, and it has to be Pawlenty.

Obama is vulnerable; the economy is improving slowly, but there's no telling how much it will improve by October 2012, or how the public will perceive the economy's progress by then. I think Romney could have been a potent threat if he wasn't such a flip flopping mess. Daniels could be dangerous, and of course Huntsman is a solid candidate - or was until he declared the Ryan budget to be the best thing ever.

I thought he wasn't running

Anyway, I'm just guessing, like we all are.  There are thousands of x factors that will come into play next year that will determine the outcome.  Factors that we have no idea what they will be because shit happens.  Although my pulled out of my ass guess is that it will mostly come down to the economy: the better the economy does, the better Obama's chances will be.

[Human Snorenado]

Pawlenty isn't a serious contender.  He has all the charisma of a wet sock.  Huntsman has to explain the whole working for the enemy thing, and he's the mormon without all the money in the fight.  Good luck with that.

Daniels might be dangerous if he cared enough, but apparently he's a crappy campaigner and doesn't like actually campaigning.  Which leaves us with Romney, which is where the GOP will end up anyway.  Barring another economic disastrophe Obama will beat Mittens.  Unemployment is currently at 8.7% and still dropping; stupid deficit rage will probably dissipate as people realize the alternatives are gutting entitilements or, god forbid, raising taxes on the rich.  Romney will be forced to constantly tack to the right during the primaries and then try to moderate during the general- he'll end up having to explain himself so much it will be hilarious.

Of course, the GOP will almost surely keep the House and will probably win the Senate too due to the number of Dem seats up for election this cycle.  Which will make Obama even more ineffective... he hasn't been, really, but wait until the GOP is smarting from not beating him.  He'll get impeached for being black or something, wait and see.

Honestly, the real fun of this election will be in figuring out who the Teatard alternative to Romney is and watching how long they stay in the race.  I'm hoping for a '92 Buchanan-esque party split all the way up to the convention.  I bet Michelle Bachmann could pull it off.

[Phoenix Dark]

Dems could lose the senate but with Obama on the ticket and this Medicare thing getting bigger I think they'll hold it. House is probably out of reach though

But yeah, can't wait to see how the tea party fucks this up

[Dickie Dee]

GOP primary voters aren't making the Ryan budget a litmus test.  Newt's problem was his tone.

The best part thing though, is now it's a litmus test.

[Mandark]

Nah, smart candidates will shy away from the budget itself and endorse the general principle of deficit reduction through budget cuts, probably with a lot of accounting hoodoo.

Also, I don't think a tea party candidate is going to stick around too long.  Once one candidate becomes the presumptive nominee, they'll stop campaigning against their GOP rivals and aim all their rhetoric at Obama, whom Tea Partiers loathe.

Kerry was boring and centrist at a time when the activist wing of the Democratic party was getting frisky, but as soon as he became the avatar of everyone opposed to Bush, liberals rallied around him and mostly ignored the more lefty candidates.

[Van Cruncheon]

Pawlenty isn't a serious contender.  He has all the charisma of a wet sock.  Huntsman has to explain the whole working for the enemy thing, and he's the mormon without all the money in the fight.  Good luck with that.

Daniels might be dangerous if he cared enough, but apparently he's a crappy campaigner and doesn't like actually campaigning.  Which leaves us with Romney, which is where the GOP will end up anyway.  Barring another economic disastrophe Obama will beat Mittens.  Unemployment is currently at 8.7% and still dropping; stupid deficit rage will probably dissipate as people realize the alternatives are gutting entitilements or, god forbid, raising taxes on the rich.  Romney will be forced to constantly tack to the right during the primaries and then try to moderate during the general- he'll end up having to explain himself so much it will be hilarious.

Of course, the GOP will almost surely keep the House and will probably win the Senate too due to the number of Dem seats up for election this cycle.  Which will make Obama even more ineffective... he hasn't been, really, but wait until the GOP is smarting from not beating him.  He'll get impeached for being black or something, wait and see.

Honestly, the real fun of this election will be in figuring out who the Teatard alternative to Romney is and watching how long they stay in the race.  I'm hoping for a '92 Buchanan-esque party split all the way up to the convention.  I bet Michelle Bachmann could pull it off.

herman cain

[Phoenix Dark]

Oh shit, Daniels isn't running
http://www.indystar.com/article/20110521/NEWS05/110521008/Indiana-Governor-Mitch-Daniels-will-not-run-president?odyssey=mod|breaking|text|IndyStar.com

circus time fellas!

[Mandark]

Right now it's between Romney and Pawlenty.  I used to think Romney was a lock, but didn't realize healthcare-gate would be this big a deal.  Huntsman won't get traction unless he's willing to start strongly criticizing the Obama admin.

There's always the chance that some relatively successful ex-governor sees the weak field and jumps in, but it would have to be pretty soon.

Ironically, Jeb would be a slam-dunk if Dubya hadn't ruined the brand.

[Phoenix Dark]

Rick Perry 2012!

But yea, Pawlenty is going to be the Anti-Romney guy unless something weird happens. Gingrich has bombed hard, and nobody seems to like Santorum.

If I had to bet I'd say Pawlenty will start picking up a bunch of endorsements, including Huck's, to help him win the early conservative states. Romney is probably a lock in Nevada, and it seems like he has NH by the balls. If Pawlenty can win SC and Iowa, it'll come down to a two man race that he could win due to the mandate fiasco and social conservative support.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

I don't know, we've been receiving a shit ton of Huckabee robocalls in the past couple of weeks.  Seems odd if he spams our answering machines but does not intend to run.  I think if he runs then he'll win.  The VP candidate will probably be a teabagger woman or minority (Allen West, Michele Bachmann, Kelly Ayotte, etc.).

Ironically, Jeb would be a slam-dunk if Dubya hadn't ruined the brand.

They'll bring back the brand for Jeb's son probably within the next couple of election cycles.  The fact that he's half latino will help out, especially in states like Texas, that will probably have moved from solidly Republican to leaning Republican due to the rising hispanic populations there.

[Mandark]

The fact that he's half latino will help out, especially in states like Texas, that will probably have moved from solidly Republican to leaning Republican due to the rising hispanic populations there.

lolwut?

spoiler (click to show/hide)

But yeah, his wife is Mexican-American and he's got a much better appreciation of the value of latino voters than most in the current GOP.

[close]

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

The fact that he's half latino will help out, especially in states like Texas, that will probably have moved from solidly Republican to leaning Republican due to the rising hispanic populations there.

http://www.handresearch.com/news/us-presidents/president-george-h-w-bush-and-barbara-bush-waving-hands.jpg

lolwut?

spoiler (click to show/hide)

But yeah, his wife is Mexican-American and he's got a much better appreciation of the value of latino voters than most in the current GOP.

[close]

I had a link embedded for Jeb's son in my previous post.



This will be a lot more common of a face for GOP red states in the next 10-15 years.

[Mandark]

Gotcha.

It'll be interesting to see how the GOP deals with changing demographics over the next couple decades.  I don't think it'll be as problematic as black racial politics post-1960's, but it could get awkward.

[Phoenix Dark]

It's hard to imagine republicans getting their act together with the Hispanic vote anytime soon. They've invested so much in making older white people mad over the last 50 years they can't simply pivot from that strategy overnight. They better hurry up though. The 2010 census showed booming Hispanic growth in southern states like Virginia, NC, etc - traditionally red states that are turning blue.

I can't wait to see everyone slamming Romney in the debates, and the various jokes/retorts his people are probably writing and begging him to recite

[youtube=560,345]y6DrH6P9OC0[/youtube]
Dude is way too robotic to handle being jumped on

[TakingBackSunday]

[youtube=560,345]FDwwAaVmnf4[/youtube]

my favorite romney clip

[Mandark]

It's hard to imagine republicans getting their act together with the Hispanic vote anytime soon. They've invested so much in making older white people mad over the last 50 years they can't simply pivot from that strategy overnight. They better hurry up though. The 2010 census showed booming Hispanic growth in southern states like Virginia, NC, etc - traditionally red states that are turning blue.

Yeah, I've been hammering on that point for a while.  The direction of the party circa Nixonland helped it for decades, but it's tied them to a shrinking segment of the population.

One saving grace is that hispanic identity isn't as defining as black identity in the US.  Long term, as more and more of the latino population are US-born, English-speaking, and a bit more affluent, there will probably be a shift towards thinking of them as more white, if still vaguely ethnic.  This happened with the Irish, Italians, Slavs, etc.  But that was maybe helped along by anti-black racism, and I don't see a similarly powerful wedge right now.

[Phoenix Dark]

[youtube=560,345]VIBF2MmfPyc[/youtube]
this guy

[Great Rumbler]

"Submit your ideas online for an executive order."

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Tim Pawlenty has announced that he's running.

I think he won't get anywhere: he's a virtual nobody to most people.  The right wing media is going to have to work their asses off to get people to even know who the fuck the guy is.  At least with people like Bush, McCain, or Giuliani, there wasn't that problem.  He'll probably get steamrolled by the Romney money making machine and slink away quietly after poor Iowa and New Hampshire performances.

Regarding hispanics, the problem for the GOP is that they're the fastest growing group in the US and threatens to make solid red states into potential swing states.  As fun as it would be to imagine them shrinking away due to demographics, they're a major party and will sooner make attempts to bring more hispanics into the fold.  For what it's worth, I thought Bush did an ok job trying to warm them up to the idea of going Republican.  The teatards shattered that though and they have to start from scratch.  In 10-15 years, the GOP will have a moment of truth: shrink to nothingness or try to bring in some brown people.  They'll probably try the latter route.  George P. Bush is half latino and the last name is recognizable name to the red states.  Knowing the US and their amnesiac tendencies, the Bush brand will be usable again at that time.

I'm guessing here but I'm just sayin'.

[TakingBackSunday]

http://excitingthingsabouttimpawlenty.com/

[Phoenix Dark]

Good article on Pawlenty's money problem
http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/88802/tim-pawlenty-republicans-2012-campaign-problem-money?page=0,0

If the establishment is going to give him a shot, they better start soon before he gets swamped by Romney's cash.

I'm not buying the George P Bush kool aid just yet. He's currently in the military () and hasn't entered politics yet. Gonna wait and see how he pans out. I doubt his name will become significantly less toxic either. Pretty sure we can honestly saw W was one of the worst president's in modern history

[Mandark]

Pawlenty's giving me this Lamar Alexander vibe, without all the plaid.

[Oblivion]

Holy shit...

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/05/23/pawlenty_campaign_already_dead.html


Fucking OUCH. T-Paw can't catch a break.

[Oblivion]

Also, too. The senate's supposed to vote on the Ryan plan this week and I absolutely love how Republicans have boxed themselves in with this predicament.

1) Vote for the bill - See endless ads accusing Reps of killing medicare, thus pretty much fucking up any opportunities to gain seats in 2012.
2) Don't vote for the bill - Suffer the wrath of Boss Limbaugh and his tea bagger ilk.

This is quite glorious.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Good article on Pawlenty's money problem
http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/88802/tim-pawlenty-republicans-2012-campaign-problem-money?page=0,0

If the establishment is going to give him a shot, they better start soon before he gets swamped by Romney's cash.

I'm not buying the George P Bush kool aid just yet. He's currently in the military () and hasn't entered politics yet. Gonna wait and see how he pans out. I doubt his name will become significantly less toxic either. Pretty sure we can honestly saw W was one of the worst president's in modern history

Huckabee will win Iowa much like he did in 2008, barring some huge disaster on his part.  Same goes for Romney in New Hampshire.  Pawlenty isn't going to stand a chance.  Romney has the establishment, Huckabee has the religious, and I'm sure there'll be yet-to-be-announced teabaggers that will snap up the teabagger constituency and funding.  Pawlenty is shit out of luck.

Regarding Bush, I'm just purely guessing here.  Nevertheless the GOP is going to have to do more to focus on hispanics in the near future if they want to remain relevant and they'll want a latino that serves the general GOP cause (ie, business).  I'm just cynically and pessimistically assuming that the GOP will play identity politics first before addressing issues that hispanics want addressed.  Kind of like their recent overcompensating attitude towards women in the past three years.

[Mandark]

Huckabee will win Iowa much like he did in 2008, barring some huge disaster on his part.

A disaster like not running?

[Phoenix Dark]

Yup, Huckabee isn't running. It seems like he's good friends with Pawlenty though, so perhaps he'll endorse him before the Iowa caucus. Also he seems to genuinely dislike Romney.

Unless someone like Rick Perry jumps in the race, Pawlenty should get the religious right vote which will be essential in Iowa and SC. I just can't see them going for Bachman, who may appeal to them the most but simply isn't electable; evangelicals eventually soured on Palin once they realized she was a non-starter, the same should apply to Bachman.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Huckabee will win Iowa much like he did in 2008, barring some huge disaster on his part.

A disaster like not running?

I assumed he was running because he's been robocalling the shit out of us for the past couple of weeks

[Brehvolution]

There is some funny shit going on in NY-26. The GOP clown party continues to eat it's own and have buyer's remorse with the tea purdy:

Nevertheless, the latest poll shows Democrat Kathy Hochul with a slight lead over Republican Jane Corwin in the race to succeed Republican Chris Lee. Lee resigned in February after shirtless photos surfaced that he'd sent to a woman on Craigslist.

 

The poll shows Tea Party candidate Jack Davis a distant third.

Davis' candidacy has further complicated matters for Republicans in a district that has many Tea Party supporters. Local GOP leaders tried to make hay of an eyebrow-raising encounter between Davis and a videographer Davis appeared to shove after the videographer taunted him for refusing to appear in a debate with Hochul and Corwin. The GOP tried to use the video to paint Davis as a bully.

 

But it backfired when the videographer turned out to be Corwin's chief of staff.

huffpo

[Mupepe]

Tim Pawlenty has announced that he's running.

I think he won't get anywhere: he's a virtual nobody to most people.  The right wing media is going to have to work their asses off to get people to even know who the fuck the guy is.  At least with people like Bush, McCain, or Giuliani, there wasn't that problem.  He'll probably get steamrolled by the Romney money making machine and slink away quietly after poor Iowa and New Hampshire performances.

Regarding hispanics, the problem for the GOP is that they're the fastest growing group in the US and threatens to make solid red states into potential swing states.  As fun as it would be to imagine them shrinking away due to demographics, they're a major party and will sooner make attempts to bring more hispanics into the fold.  For what it's worth, I thought Bush did an ok job trying to warm them up to the idea of going Republican.  The teatards shattered that though and they have to start from scratch.  In 10-15 years, the GOP will have a moment of truth: shrink to nothingness or try to bring in some brown people.  They'll probably try the latter route.  George P. Bush is half latino and the last name is recognizable name to the red states.  Knowing the US and their amnesiac tendencies, the Bush brand will be usable again at that time.

I'm guessing here but I'm just sayin'.

Anecdotal evidence incoming...

Out of all the hispanics I know here in Texas, I'd say about 80 percent are hardcore teatard/republican.  They might not agree with the immigration bills, but they're sucking on that deficit/lazy entitlements teat of the party.  Not to mention the Family Values© shit that comes with being highly religious and is hypocritically spouted by the right wing movement.  I'd put money on any election that isn't centered around immigration reforms, they'll vote Republican most likely.

[Phoenix Dark]

Texas is a conservative state outside of a handful of areas, that's not surprising. But I do think republicans could capture the Hispanic vote eventually if they shitcan the racist shit. Just not anytime soon.

[Mupepe]

Yeah, obviously Texas is a bit more conservative than average but I always think most people who say that Texas won't be so red in 10 years are kinda naive.  Texas has been and will probably continue to placate the hispanic vote.  People always talk about an Arizona type immigration bill hitting Texas but I don't think Rick Perry or any of the other major GOP players in Texas are stupid enough to touch that with a ten foot pole.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Tim Pawlenty has announced that he's running.

I think he won't get anywhere: he's a virtual nobody to most people.  The right wing media is going to have to work their asses off to get people to even know who the fuck the guy is.  At least with people like Bush, McCain, or Giuliani, there wasn't that problem.  He'll probably get steamrolled by the Romney money making machine and slink away quietly after poor Iowa and New Hampshire performances.

Regarding hispanics, the problem for the GOP is that they're the fastest growing group in the US and threatens to make solid red states into potential swing states.  As fun as it would be to imagine them shrinking away due to demographics, they're a major party and will sooner make attempts to bring more hispanics into the fold.  For what it's worth, I thought Bush did an ok job trying to warm them up to the idea of going Republican.  The teatards shattered that though and they have to start from scratch.  In 10-15 years, the GOP will have a moment of truth: shrink to nothingness or try to bring in some brown people.  They'll probably try the latter route.  George P. Bush is half latino and the last name is recognizable name to the red states.  Knowing the US and their amnesiac tendencies, the Bush brand will be usable again at that time.

I'm guessing here but I'm just sayin'.

Anecdotal evidence incoming...

Out of all the hispanics I know here in Texas, I'd say about 80 percent are hardcore teatard/republican.  They might not agree with the immigration bills, but they're sucking on that deficit/lazy entitlements teat of the party.  Not to mention the Family Values© shit that comes with being highly religious and is hypocritically spouted by the right wing movement.  I'd put money on any election that isn't centered around immigration reforms, they'll vote Republican most likely.

It's going to take some time for the GOP to successfully merge the hispanic vote with the "dey took our jerbs" set from the non-border red states.  They won't have much of a choice after a while if they want to remain a major political force.

I had an old roommate who had a lot of latino/latina relatives who were huge Republicans.  I never talked to them post-tea party as to whether they were still Republicans so that could have changed.  I don't really subscribe to the masturbatory theory that the GOP will dwindle away to nothing because they refused to reach out to the ever growing hispanic vote.  There will be a time, after enough bitter old white people have died, to where they can make the leap and go from there.  If I was the GOP, I'd be working my ass off to secure the hispanic vote, which would guarantee decades of dominance after putting in some effort.  Their choice.

[Phoenix Dark]

It won't take republicans long to figure out how to exploit Hispanics over illegal immigration ("illegals make us look bad"). They're already a fiercely religious group too, so there's that. So while I certainly believe their racist/divisive fear tactics are going to backfire hard, they're going to find a way to carve the demographic pie a bit more in their favor, slightly. Obama got nearly 70% of the Hispanic vote, against a republican with a moderate record on illegal immigration (outside of the whole "vote against your own bill to pander to old white people" thing). I don't think those types of high numbers will last, especially considering democrats dragging their feet on Hispanic issues until it's election time

[Phoenix Dark]

double post: Dems just picked up the NY-26 seat. Number one issue according to exit polls: Medicare. Dems could still fuck things up, and I half expect them to, but this race should be the blueprint of how things are run next year. The Ryan budget is toxic.

[Oblivion]

Dems'll probably fuck this up, but we all should thank Paul "the serious intellectual' Ryan for giving them some more ammo.

[Brehvolution]

More like Paul 'The republican killer' Ryan. 2012 is gonna be a blood bath. Any chance of Dem's getting the super majority back?

[Mupepe]

More like Paul 'The republican killer' Ryan. 2012 is gonna be a blood bath. Any chance of Dem's getting the super majority back?

Not likely.  Too many Dem seats up for grabs this election. 

And yeah, the hispanics I know that liked Obama are already turning on him for his inaction on illegal immigration.  They've been the victim of bait and switch for the last 3 elections and I'm not sure it'll work in 2012 for Obama.  He really should have made at least an effort besides the DREAM act. 

[HyperZoneWasAwesome]

I'd say not doing enough is still leagues better then the outright hostility coming from the other side.  A latino republican might as well also be gay, black, poor, and a female to better cater to all the niches that the GOP gives no fucks for.

[Himu]

Yep. What my man Mupepe said right on the mark. Obama underestimated the Hispanic vote and it will come back and bite him in the ass if he doesn't do something right now. Even then it may be too late. Hispanics tend to vote conservative because they tend to be socially conservative, religious upbringing and all. Obama should have realized that the key to victory is the hispanic vote and should have set off to getting that shit down on lock.

[Mupepe]

At least Bush pushed the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007 though.  Obama pushed the DREAM act in a lame duck session tied to DADT which also pissed off a lot of hispanics (even though it would have and eventually did fail on its own).  Most hispanics will probably vote for whoever promises to ease immigration, amnesty or some legal path to citizenship.  And if Republicans wise up, it could very well be them.  I'm not saying it's in their best interest or the most intelligent decision on their part (and I do agree not doing anything is better than supporting a party that outright publicly hates you) but I think it will happen.  It's an issue that hits way too close to home for a lot of hispanics to play around with.  Talk to any hispanic family and I guarantee they have a relative or friend that is here illegally.  Priority #1 in most cases is finding a candidate that will truly support a way for them to safely and legally stay in the US.

Edit: High five himumumu

[Himu]

Dude, every hispanic I know has at least one relative or friend or WAS illegal. Shit, Luis didn't get his citizenship until high school.

[Oblivion]

Dude, every hispanic I know has at least one relative or friend or WAS illegal. Shit, Luis didn't get his citizenship until high school.

Reported to INS.

[Oblivion]

So seeing as how potent the medicare argument was for the NY-26 election, what's the first thing Dems do? Cut medicare of course!

At his weekly Capitol briefing with reporters Tuesday, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) confirmed what aides in both parties have been telling reporters: Cuts to Medicare will be on the table in deficit and debt limit negotiations, led by Vice President Joe Biden.

http://dailykos.com/story/2011/05/25/978910/-Hoyer:-Medicare-cuts-are-on-the-debt-limit-negotiating-table?via=blog_1

[Oblivion]

So the Senate took the vote today. Failed 57-40:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55721.html