"A black sheriff?!": The Official Topic of Obama and New Era American Politics

[benjipwns]

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has surged to the largest national lead held by any candidate so far in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds Gingrich on top with 38% of the vote. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is a distant second at 17%. No other candidate reaches double-digits. 

What.

Cain is down to 8%, Perry down to 4%. Santorum has SURGED to 4%. Huntsman at 3% in a couple polls now (This, CNN, FOX, PPP).

"Gingrich +21" looks so weird.

[Howard Alan Treesong]

apparently, Republicans have glommed onto the whole "flavor of the month" nature of their political process and are getting far more efficient about it~

[Phoenix Dark]

The perfect description of Romney. His disastrous Fox interview exposes him in a way I'm not used to seeing. In 2008 he looked and sounded very awkward. He still seems awkward today, but is better on stage, is quick on his feet, etc. Yet he fumbles hard whenever hes forced to go off message.

It's like he feels entitled to the nomination and is genuinely upset republicans still don't like him. Republican politics are usually dominated with a "who's next in line" hierarchy, and in many ways Romney IS that next in line candidate. But...nobody likes him.

[benjipwns]

"Don't run away, I'll shake your hand!" 


 

Bonus Santorum ad from 1994:

[Oblivion]

Well, that settles that. Nothing to see here people, move along.

[AdmiralViscen]

Class warfare if I ever saw it

[Great Rumbler]

Well, that settles that. Nothing to see here people, move along.

[benjipwns]

Full clip:


Why is "male" marked when she's talking? 

[Dickie Dee]

"HNNG HNNG HNNG"

[Howard Alan Treesong]

Women for Cain? Hasn't he had enough already?

[Phoenix Dark]

^
http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=55735777

Gloria Cain Wants Her Husband to Exit Race
Sources close to Herman Cain's presidential campaign tell the Daily Beast that Gloria Cain "wants her husband to leave the race and has no desire to do additional interviews about their marriage or the constant accusations. They describe a woman angry that her life has been turned upside down by her husband's need for attention and power by any means."

However, several people "said they believe Cain will do what's best for him and not his family in deciding whether he'll leave the race."

The Cains are reportedly talking face-to-face today for the first time since a woman publicly said she had a 13 year affair with Cain.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/12/02/gloria_cain_wants_her_husband_to_exit_race.html

Well, that's that.

[Great Rumbler]

I do kinda feel sorry for Herman Cain, to have his wife find out about a lifetime of dirty laundry when it's suddenly aired in public over the course of several weeks. Only a little bit, though, because it's clear he brought this on himself.

[Phoenix Dark]

The only person possibly worth feeling sorry for is his wife. He's apparently cheated on her for years. Although this article suggest she has known about him having girlfriends for some time
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/02/herman-gloria-cains-probl_n_1125626.html

So maybe she was ok with it as long as their dirty laundry wasn't being aired in public.

[Human Snorenado]

To me, this just confirms that Cain was in it for book sales and to increase his profile and standing amongst the wingnutterati.  He probably thought, "I'll sell some books, make some money, drop out and no one will ever know about all this shit.  I mean, it's not like I'm ever gonna get frontrunner level scrutiny, right?  NINE NINE NINE!"

Oops!

[benjipwns]

I can't go that far. I consider it far more plausible a lot of these guys think they're invincible, especially if they start doing well in debates and polls.

I mean shit, look at what John Edwards was doing four years ago. Having children with other women while your wife is dying from cancer is just really bad press, BUT then running on how devoted you are to your wife and how she called on you to run for President because of how it important it is? And involving campaign staffers? How the fuck do you expect this to go?

Look at how Cain has done everything else, answering foreign policy "ASK THE EXPERTS DUH!", the 9-9-9 plan was just basic and then within days he was altering it by the advice of his "adviser" he was sending the media to for answers to create new tax breaks and deductions and blah blah blah. I'm sure a GOP person unleashed the "womyns" on Cain once he got up high the polls because they knew even though most of these were hardly damaging he could never respond. The first sexual harassment things he could have come out and said "these were misunderstandings, we did not want to get caught up with all these terrible sexual harassment witch-hunts so we handled the problem to the satisfaction of all parties." Instead he spent a day denying they happened, then his campaign said they did, and he came around to it eventually saying he knew but not really, then that he did. And they thought they could keep a woman he's been paying off for years to not come out or someone to find out? After the damage done from those earlier accusations?

Then again, maybe Cain WAS in it for that. But then he started pulling ahead. That's entirely plausible. I just can't think they're this foresighted. I think Sarah Palin did intend to gear up for a 2012 run until she started making the money she is and someone explained to her just what a Presidential run would cost. Her family is probably more than set for life now and she still has another decade or so of dickteasing the GOP.

[Cheebo]

Apparently Cain is going to make it official Saturday he is droping out of the race for the Republican nomination.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/02/9169851-cain-to-make-major-announcement-saturday

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

[benjipwns]

JUST LIKE HISTORY! http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/02/romney_declines_lincoln-douglas_debate_against_gingrich_112265.html

With the Republican presidential primary appearing to have narrowed into a two-man contest, Human Events and Red State moved quickly to lock down a date for a Lincoln-Douglas-style debate between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.

The two organizations went so far this past Monday as to firm up the Annenberg Theater at the Newseum in Washington as the venue on Dec. 19 after another debate originally scheduled that day was canceled. For its part, the Newseum was excited to host the pre-primary forum.

There was just one problem. While Gingrich was ready to take his place on the stage, the Romney campaign politely declined in a series of mostly e-mail exchanges.

As Joe Guerriero, publisher of Human Events and Red State, put it to RCP: “Newt was all over it, and the Romney camp basically said no. It wasn’t a harsh no, but it was a no.”

A Gingrich spokesman confirmed to RCP that the candidate was interested and accepted the invitation, but a Romney spokeswoman didn’t return a request for comment.

Guerriero explained that the impetus for the debate was this: Romney has long been presumed to be the nominee. But with Gingrich surging in the polls, why shouldn’t the Republican base get a chance to see the two top candidates go toe-to-toe?

“No disrespect to any of the other candidates,” Guerriero said, but given the state of the country, the economy, and the race to date, if Romney is to be the nominee, "he needs to go against the best debater with the deepest understanding of policy both domestic and foreign, and that appears to be Newt Gingrich.”
...
He continued, “It looks like Newt’s made a real run at this, and the Romney camp is trying to run out the clock, and we don’t think that’s necessarily a wise strategy.” Instead, he said, the base should be able to see the top candidates answer the tough questions that these conservative publications don’t believe are being asked.

Going forward, Guerriero said, they have asked the candidates if they would agree to such a debate after the first few primary contests. Gingrich, he said, “is itching to do it,” but the Romney campaign “has been more circumspect.”

[Dickie Dee]

Donald Trump is pairing up with Newsmax, the conservative magazine and news Web site, to moderate a presidential debate in Des Moines on Dec. 27.

“Our readers and the grass roots really love Trump,” said Christopher Ruddy, chief executive of Newsmax Media. “They may not agree with
him on everything, but they don’t see him as owned by the Washington establishment, the media establishment.”

Mr. Trump’s role in the debate, which will be broadcast on the cable network Ion Television, is sure to be one of the more memorable moments in a primary season that has already delivered its fair share of circus-like spectacle.

[Great Rumbler]

“Our readers and the grass roots really love Trump,” said Christopher Ruddy, chief executive of Newsmax Media. “They may not agree with
him on everything, but they don’t see him as owned by the Washington establishment, the media establishment.”

No, he's just a filthy-rich businessman born with a silver spoon in his mouth. Very relatable.

[benjipwns]

Wait, you mean you aren't kept afloat by a decade long network TV show that lets you pimp the failing businesses of yourself and your daughter along with any other advertising that agrees?

[Brehvolution]

A rich guy with his own TV show isn't part of the media establishment? 

[Cheebo]

[Phoenix Dark]

The Republican confusion over the payroll tax cut is hilarious.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

God I hope they pass it.  As someone who benefits from both sides I would love this

[close]

Yup, it includes an employer cut as well as the employee cut extension.

The funniest thing is watching republicans go on record that only democratic tax cuts apparently need to be paid for. 

[Phoenix Dark]

http://www.menforcain.com/

[Oblivion]

So....the unemployment rate dropped to 8.6% I hear. Considering that's not been plastered on this page, I'm going to assume it's one of those technical adjustment type situations?

[benjipwns]

Well, do you want the libertarian positions you've been asking for about? Or do you want the sensible posters who live in the real world?

[Oblivion]

Also, too, Bachmann vs. High schooler:

http://gawker.com/5864280/hero-high-school-student-fights-michele-bachmann-over-gay-marriage?autoplay

[Phoenix Dark]

Seasonal hiring+lots of people leaving the work pool (not looking for jobs). There is good news in the report, such as the October numbers being revised up pretty high. But overall there are bad signs like the labor force participation rate dropped from 64.2 to 64 percent, meaning many people are giving up.

It's such a big drop that it's hard for republicans to make a stink, which is why overall media reactions are low imo. There are ways to look at the data negatively as I pointed out, but republicans don't seem interested in making those types of arguments. It's way easier to dominate the news cycle when UE is stagnant or rising (ie "blame it on Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, and government expansion!") than when a person can open up yahoo and see "UE falls to 8.6, down from 9%"

[AdmiralViscen]

Well clearly I'm about to lose the bet if he drops out. I just ask if he drops out before the primaries that I not take my ban until after secret santa has completed.

The bet should be nullified, no one could have predicted all this

[Oblivion]

(Image removed from quote.)

"HNNG HNNG HNNG"

That shot with the women is AWESOME.

[drew]

(Image removed from quote.)

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[close]

it had to be done.

[Great Rumbler]

No, it didn't.

[Human Snorenado]

Sorry to disappoint, but mods/admins here don't enforce ban bets anyway, so I would just stop thinking about it.

[Cheebo]

Well clearly I'm about to lose the bet if he drops out. I just ask if he drops out before the primaries that I not take my ban until after secret santa has completed.

The bet should be nullified, no one could have predicted all this

Spencer shouldn't have predicted he'd win a primary. Come on, you really thought he would?  It was clear even long before the scandal he would burn out like Bachman and Perry. He didn't have a functioning campaign staff. Who was it that made the bet with you anyway? PD?

Well he dropped out and is meeting with Newt Gingrich next week. Haha Newt wants his endorsement. I remember PD and I made a ban bet with a bunch of people at GAF where we predicted Hillary would win both Ohio & Texas on GAF and it never got enforced.

[Mupepe]

Seasonal hiring+lots of people leaving the work pool (not looking for jobs). There is good news in the report, such as the October numbers being revised up pretty high. But overall there are bad signs like the labor force participation rate dropped from 64.2 to 64 percent, meaning many people are giving up.

It's such a big drop that it's hard for republicans to make a stink, which is why overall media reactions are low imo. There are ways to look at the data negatively as I pointed out, but republicans don't seem interested in making those types of arguments. It's way easier to dominate the news cycle when UE is stagnant or rising (ie "blame it on Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, and government expansion!") than when a person can open up yahoo and see "UE falls to 8.6, down from 9%"

Seasonal hiring shouldn't effect it much if at all. The reports are adjusted to compensate for that.

Also, another sign of good news was the amount of people who are underemployed dropped significantly as well. There are enough good points in the report to combat the bad points which is why the Republicans won't make a stink. Also, there's no easy way to to make a headline or audio clip that explains the report sufficiently for the average news reader to digest and understand the counterpoints without making the reader actually think. The spin would be too complicated for fox news

[Mandark]

"If you're explaining, you're losing."  Sad, but pretty accurate.

Nobody's getting banned.  No admins signed on to the wager, and The Bore's got an informal policy of reacting to ban bets with a roll of the eyes and a jerking motion of the fist.

[Cheebo]

I think Herman Cain is the first presidential candidate in American history to name drop Pokemon in a concession/dropping-out speech:

“I believe these words came from the Pokemon movie,” Cain said. “Life can be a challenge. Life can seem impossible. It’s never easy when there’s so much on the line. But you and I can make a difference. There’s a mission just for you and me.”

He continued: “Just look inside and you will find just what you can do.”

In

[Phoenix Dark]

Yea Spencer, you won't be banned. Ban bets are more about annihilating each other and keeping things moving

[Great Rumbler]

Ban bets are boring. Both you guys should be banned for actually going ahead with it.

[Phoenix Dark]

Pretty sure I've never lost a ban bet here

[BlueTsunami]

Avatar bets are better. I mean, forcing a ban on someone and giving them more free time to do shit is actually a blessing.

[Van Cruncheon]

ban bets are stupid. avatar/tag bets are awesome.

[Joe Molotov]

Yeah, just look at the avatar and tag Cruncheon got for losing a bet.

[Oblivion]

There's something REALLY depressing about this:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/rumors-of-extramarital-affair-end-campaign-of-pres,26801/

[Stoney Mason]

Another high tech lynching.

[benjipwns]

POLITICO Breaking News
-------------------------------------------------
With just over a month to go, a new Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa caucus voters released Saturday shows Newt Gingrich surging to first place, at 25 percent. Ron Paul is in second place, with 18 percent, while Mitt Romney has fallen to third place, at 16 percent. Michele Bachmann had 8 percent, as did Herman Cain, who suspended his campaign Saturday. Rick Perry and Rick Santorum were tied at 6 percent.

what is happening

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

I'm from Iowa and I'm going to be voting for Gingrich in the GOP caucus.  It's going to be awesome!

[Cheebo]

Newtmentum

He has just to survive and not self-implode for two more weeks then everyone shuts down for the holidays and then its Iowa.

Come on Newt, don't blow this.

[Human Snorenado]

If Romney loses NH he's done.

[AdmiralViscen]

Cnns latest poll has him down, but leading in NH and losing in fl, oh, and sc. If newt wins 3 of the 4 and is even close in NH I think Romney will have a problem.

[Barry Egan]

I'm conflicted because on the one hand a Newt candidacy means four more years of Obama, which is better than 4 years of Romney, and on the other hand oh my god our country has becomes its own satire. 

[Cheebo]

Are republicans even aware that they'd be throwing away the election if they nominate Newt? Do any of them actually think he can win?

[benjipwns]

Sentiments I have seen is that they think Newt would crush Obama in the debates and make him look like a child.

A number of these same people were saying similar things about Cain a month ago. (Only that he would expose Obama as an Elitist Washington Insider rather than a child.)

Of course they also think anyone will beat Obama and no matter who it is wins at least like Reagan in 1980, and a good candidate wins like Reagan in 1984.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Are republicans even aware that they'd be throwing away the election if they nominate Newt? Do any of them actually think he can win?

Most think that any "true conservative" will thump Obama at the polls.  RINO socialists like Romney and Huntsmann will lose to Obama.

http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/29/more-now-disagree-with-tea-party-%E2%80%93-even-in-tea-party-districts/?src=prc-headline

Here's a link that shows dropping teatard support.  While I don't see people being enthusiastic to go to the polls for Obama, he should be able to hold his own against Newt with a waning tea party movement.

[benjipwns]

From what I've read they think even Romney will win, but that's why it's more important to defeat Romney since any GOP candidate will be winning.

One of the GOPers I know has been talking about how it will be a landslide for almost a year. (And this is the plurality view on a lot of sites.) I've asked him how that can be when despite Obama being down 7-10 points in approval (via RCP for example) he's crushing everyone but basically Romney and Paul by double figures head-to-head. (Until Gingrich this week.) He's convinced that once there's one candidate those numbers go up 5-10 points instantly and Obama fades to low 40s.

To the credit of the GOP, they seem to realize Romney is their Kerry and they are going to try all the damn options first.

NBC Polls:

Gingrich 26, Romney 18, Paul 17, Cain 9, Bachmann 5, Perry 9, Santorum 5, Huntsman 2

Romney 39, Gingrich 23, Paul 16, Huntsman 9, Cain 2, Perry 3, Bachmann 3, Santorum 1

Looks like it might be turning into Gingrich-Romney-Paul with fourth place being dependent on the state. Santorum in Iowa and Huntsman(!?!) in NH?

Who would have thought it'd be Romney battling to survive against Gingrich and Paul of all people. Is somebody checking on Tim Pawlenty? Hell, Thaddeus McCotter should have stayed in, if he had managed to get into some debates he would probably be at 15% now, guy is hilarious. Rudy, Huckabee, John Bolton have to be wishing they took the chance. Daniels probably wishes he had an explanation for that whole wife thing.

Huntsman apparently won't be in either of the next two debates. One by choice. Plus no Cain. FOX could at least let Roemer and Johnson in. (There was talk they'd let Johnson in again, which they probably would have had they known Cain would be gone for two weeks by then.) And kick Perry out. It'd help him more than if he was there.

Gingrich is the only person who is showing up to the Trump debate (Dec 27th) so far, Bachmann and Santorum are likely, but Paul and Huntsman have both said no. I bet Romney shows up if he keeps falling back.

Trump responded, "Few people take Ron Paul seriously and many of his views and presentation make him a clown-like candidate, I am glad he and Jon Huntsman, who has inconsequential poll numbers or a chance of winning, will not be attending the debate and wasting the time of the viewers who are trying very hard to make a very important decision."

[Phoenix Dark]

IF Gingrich can not fuck up at the December 10th debate he's basically at the first finish line. No one will be paying attention during the holidays, and Trump's circus debate is on the 27th meaning no one will be watching that either. Things will pick back up on January 2nd, and the race will most likely look as it did immediately after the December 10th debate. By that time Iowa will be days away.

I could see Romney coming in third in Iowa, much like Hillary did in 08.  He'll win NH, but Newt should take SC considering he'll be the southern son in the race. And considering Newt's support amongst the elderly, he could take Florida too. If that happens we'll have a true race on our hands. I still think it's hard to bet against Romney, but Gingrich might be able to pull this off if he doesn't ruin his own campaign.

[benjipwns]

Just to note for reference:
Iowa is Jan 3rd.
NH is Jan 10th.
SC is Jan 21st.
Florida is Jan 31st.

And it's hard to see anyone but Gingrich, Romney and Paul plus one other "surprise" candidate surviving past Florida. (Say a Santorum or Bachmann who does well in Iowa, or if Huntsman can get up there in NH.)

I hope Gingrich bombs in both debates on the 10th and 15th in some horrible way or there's some unseen scandal because I want to see that two week scramble to find another candidate before Iowa.

[Oblivion]

Let us take a minute to acknowledge the fact that there are "very serious people" in the media who think that Newt Gingrich could actual IMPROVE his electoral chances by getting the endorsement of Herman Cain.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

And then take a minute to realize that such an endorsement in our current political environment may actual WORK.  :'(

[close]

[Phoenix Dark]

Just to note for reference:
Iowa is Jan 3rd.
NH is Jan 10th.
SC is Jan 21st.
Florida is Jan 31st.

And it's hard to see anyone but Gingrich, Romney and Paul plus one other "surprise" candidate surviving past Florida. (Say a Santorum or Bachmann who does well in Iowa, or if Huntsman can get up there in NH.)

I hope Gingrich bombs in both debates on the 10th and 15th in some horrible way or there's some unseen scandal because I want to see that two week scramble to find another candidate before Iowa.

There's no time though. If Gingrich bombs on the 10th or 15th, Paul or Romney win Iowa. Bachman had her boom/bust already, it's hard to see her getting another chance. Santorum could get a chance, but if he loses Iowa it's hard to see him staying in the race; he has no money.

Perry has enough money to last until Florida at the least, hoping for Gingrich to stumble; unfortunately for him, his social security comments will be brought up again, and I think he'll lose Florida pretty soundly. He could drop out after that and endorse Gingrich.

It's worth noting that Gingrich has a lot of potential endorsements on the table. He wrote the forward to Perry's book and is good friends with him. A Perry endorsement in Feburary would be great, with Super Tuesday (and Texas) a month away in March. Likewise the Alaska caucus is on Super Tuesday, and there are rumors she is leaning towards endorsing him. Then there's Santorum, a good friend of his who could help reassure social values voters that Gingrich is a changed man.

In short, Gingrich could unite much of the party against Romney. Social conservatives, the tea party activists, and perhaps even neoconservatives; we know McCain can't stand Romney, perhaps he'll jump on board on the Newtmentum train too. I'd imagine the Club For Growth/establishment types will stick with Romney

[benjipwns]

There's no time though. If Gingrich bombs on the 10th or 15th, Paul or Romney win Iowa.

This I think sends the GOP in two directions. If Paul wins Iowa, and Romney wins NH (which is almost assured currently) Gingrich then implodes. If Romney wins Iowa and NH, Gingrich is also doomed. He needs Iowa I think, if something derails him before Iowa there's the possibility.

If Newt loses, Romney wins. Paul is never going to win the nomination unless everyone else decides to share a plane and it crashes in Canada somewhere.

Santorums chance IS Iowa, if he wins there or say Paul wins and Santorum gets third that helps Santorum and hurts Newt. We'll see if he has a chance in the next couple weeks, if he starts surging like Huckabee and Edwards randomly did, I have to imagine that means something good in Iowa.

Perry is done. I can't think of anyone who entered a race and shot to a massive lead, then lost it in all the course of two weeks to become bottom tier and held on to win. Who is going to bother throwing more money at that disaster?

Endorsements, in my opinion, aren't that important in a setup like this (in Hillary v. Obama, yes), people will side with Newt because he's the anti-Romney but if Santorum or Paul do well enough they could derail that enough to give Romney the win. 

I still irrationally consider Santorum the dark horse if Republicans decide Romney won't cut enough taxes, Newt won't round up enough gays (reverse the last two depending on the week) and Paul won't kill enough foreigners. And I may only say that so I can yell "I TOLD YOU SO! I TOLD ALL OF YOU!" in a few weeks if it happens.

Newt obviously has the inside track if nothing changes this week probably. (And I've seen the change in the "I'm not a Republican but I'd vote for..." from Perry to Cain to Newt. They're adamant about no-Romney though.)

It's just weird. Weird. Weird. Weird.

It's 2012, not 1996.

And lots of humiliating Obama in the debates talk. I don't get where this comes from.

I'm pretty sure I could "dominate" the three Presidential debates with any of these candidates including Obama because I don't give a shit about winning votes. But apparently they still score these elections on that archaic system.