I really hope that Obama doesn't win the electoral college but not the popular vote, because that would basically be the worst possible outcome.
Bill Maher was cheering for this last night, and GAF is full of posters who want the same thing. People are going to get mad no matter what if Obama wins, but it'll be worse if if loves the PV but wins because of the EV. I don't want to see that, period.
It could happen if the south votes at the rate Gallup suggests, but if not then Obama should win the PV by at least 1%. And if the polls are accurate, he'll win the EV by a good margin.
The thing that really annoys/concerns me is the right's focus on national polling, and how the media is playing along. Given Gallup's sample methodology (whiter, older voters and a heavy weighing of southern voters) it's very likely that Obama will be losing in the final Gallup poll next month. If he wins the election due to taking states that actually matter (Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin) there are going to be a lot of republicans who will claim the election was stolen, and I feel like the media has already set the ground work for them. Even in 08 you didn't see many people outright argue Obama stole the election due to fraud/ACORN; Fox, elected officials, etc were outraged over ACORN, but I don't remember many people definitively stating Obama didn't actually win. It'll be very interesting to see what mainstream elected republicans say if Obama wins despite national polls showing him down. I'm sure there will always be tea party types to claim fraud, but I'm talking about the Cantors, Boehners, McCains, etc
Erick Erickson is 100% convinced Romney will win, and all he talks about is national polls. I really get the impression a lot of these people know Romney is probably fucked, and are really just setting the stage for the next big (lucrative) outrage story.