Avatar: Willco still hates it

[Flannel Boy]

I have no doubt that it'll have legs.

and tails

[The Fake Shemp]

Transformers had a built-in fanbase and was a sequel to a massively popular film. You don't think that's a difference?

... Also, an independent investigation by the New York Times last month put the production and promotional costs of Avatar closer to $500 million. That's more likely accurate, because Hollywood likes to lie about its budgets.

Seriously, even if we use Fox's official numbers, and the costs associated with Avatar is close to $400 million, who fronts that kind of money for a non-franchise science fiction film? Even if it breaks $500 million worldwide, it's pretty much a wash (considering Fox does not see every penny, and even less so overseas).

[The Fake Shemp]

That is the dumbest logic ever. Romance is always bankable, but Titanic was lightning in a bottle. Science fiction, historically, is a tougher sell. I think Fox will eventually turn a profit, probably on home video and with ancillary revenues, but - man! - think of all the more affordable projects that could have been financed and how much more profit Fox could have seen as a result.

I just don't see how you could front that much money unless you felt you could make two to three times that amount.

[Great Rumbler]

Alright, just got back from seeing on the amazingly spectacular Cinemark XD screen, which is like IMAX but not lame.

The Good
-3D looked great and didn't devolve into useless gimmicks with lots of pointing stuff towards the screen like some movies have done. Adds depth to a lot of scenes.
-CG is amazing and probably the best ever put into a movie. Seriously. It's consistent throughout and meshed really well with the live action stuff.
-Actions scenes are really well done, you can actually see what's going on!!
-Acting is solid, but not spectacular.
-Pandora is really well made and fleshed out. Corny, but at times it really does feel alive.
-Final battle is simply amazing. The movies is worth it almost for that alone.
-First hour is really good.

The Bad
-Middle drags a bit and is spotty with some cool scenes and some awkward/lame ones.
-A bit too much tree-huggery.
-Some of the dialogue is pretty bad.
-No real surprises.
-Humans should have won and turned Pandora into a massive strip mine.

As a gut reaction, I'd probably give it 10/10 based on how amped up I was at the end of the movie. Being honest with myself, I'd probably pull it down to an 8. Overall, it's better than Star Trek, better than Transformers, better than Terminator: Salvation, better than Watchmen, and better than the second half of the District 9.

But Moon still reigns supreme.

Moon

[The Fake Shemp]

Uh, Cameron didn't invent any new technology. He requisitioned Sony to build a line of 3D cameras for Avatar that fit his needs, and Sony was paid for the creation of the cameras. It's not like Cameron or Fox can license out this technology, Sony is free to sell it to whomever they want, though.

And it wasn't like Cameron drew up schematics either. He got Vince Pace to ask Sony to just make some relatively simple tweaks to their designs.

[The Fake Shemp]

What kind of film would you make with 500 million. Wilco?

I figure I could make 10 really great films with that kind of cash. I wonder if his future films would be a lot cheaper to make.

I wouldn't make a single film for that kind of money. The feature I'm developing - the one I pray one day will be produced - has an estimated budget of $6 million. That's it.

I'm from the Corman school of thought; give me $500 million and I will make you a dozen profitable films.

These kinds of budgets are only handed out to established directors that have pulled in a lot of cash for the studios. The end result is that they become lazy. Instead of trying to come up with creative ways to stretch the budget, they pretty much go through production without worry. I'm a big believer of the theory that adversity and problem solving creates the best cinema.

[ToxicAdam]

The only thing more distinguished mentally-challenged than trolling a movie you have never seen, is arguing with people that are trolling a movie they have never seen.

[Great Rumbler]

Sales-talk?

[Phoenix Dark]

We can only hope.

The film cost $380 million. It wasn't like it was going to make that back anyway. I have no idea what Fox was thinking with that budget. When your film is all spectacle, and everyone thinks the story and characters are disposable at best, you're not talking about anything with legs.

Transformers?

[The Fake Shemp]

The only thing more distinguished mentally-challenged than trolling a movie you have never seen, is arguing with people that are trolling a movie they have never seen.

Spoken like a typical fanboy.

... Maurice, Transformers didn't have much in the way of legs. It was very front loaded, but what it did have was summer positioning and a built-in fanbase. The original film's budget is like half of what Avatar's is, as well.

[Phoenix Dark]

Avatar's built in fan base is bigger though. Remember, director of

TERMINATOR

ALIENS

TERMINATOR 2

uhh

TITANIC


WITNESS HIS NEWEST EPIC


AVATAR

[The Fake Shemp]

I would say that directors do have built-in fanbases to some degree, but public memory is short. Furthermore, a stellar track record of popular films doesn't mean you can necessarily polish a turd. Spielberg has even had his duds. And he's fucking Spielberg.

Cameron has not directed a film in ten years. Remember, there are some teenagers braving the snow this weekend to see Avatar that don't remember when Titanic came out.

[Himu]

Avatar's built in fan base is bigger though. Remember, director of

TERMINATOR

ALIENS

TERMINATOR 2

uhh

TITANIC


WITNESS HIS NEWEST EPIC


AVATAR

True Lies owned.

[Donono]

My favorite part about the movie is

spoiler (click to show/hide)

the villain that kinda reminds me of Cpt. Ahab.

"Damn injuns done scratched mah face up sumthin' fierce and naw I gits to sawr it everay morn and I'm gun give em' what fer!  Blow up HOMETREE!" *sips coffee*

[close]

[Himu]

I don't see what Maurice or Willco are gaining from trolling this? Troll super mega fanboy movies. Until people are saying OMFG BEST SCI FI LOVE STORY FURRY MOVIE EVER?!?!?! there's very little reason to troll.

Trolling is at its best when you troll things that make people cry when you shit talk it.

Like Mario 64.

[The Fake Shemp]

Green Shinobi called it "the biggest movie of all-time" and jizzed all over the Internet. I don't know what you're talking about.

It also has gotten a free pass from critics, culminating in award nominations for BEST PICTURE, which is ludicrous.

[Phoenix Dark]

We're not trolling  

I'm not saying the CGI is horrible, or making ridiculous claims. I'm merely stating that the art direction is poor and generic, the story is nothing remotely fresh, there are no big stars in the film...and it has a price tag of some $400 million.

I may be proven wrong with my predictions about the box office, but that doesn't change the fact that this looks meh. People who have seen it are saying it looked amazing, and maybe that sells tickets during the second week. Dunno

[Diunx]

Avatar is so awesome. I'm gonna download that russian rip that is floating around in the web since I don't want to pay those ridiculus 3d prices.

Icons- 0
Cameron - 6

[The Fake Shemp]

Next week Sherlock Holmes comes out, and although I think Avatar will still be number one, it will cut into its box office haul.

[Diunx]

lol theres a fuckin new moon pirated dvd in here, I keep telling people that my little brother is a flaming taco but no one believes me.

[Howard Alan Treesong]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/09/business/media/09avatar.html?_r=2&src=twr&pagewanted=all

Taking no chances, Fox is backing up Mr. Cameron’s movie with what an executive recently called the studio’s “secret weapon.”

That would be “Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel,” set to open just a week after studio marketers get “Avatar” into theaters. It is the relatively safe sequel to a chipper family comedy that cost about $60 million and took in $217 million at the domestic box office when it was released two years ago.

Avatar's box office leaves Fox feeling blue; execs go "full furry" one week later with the Chipettes.

[The Fake Shemp]

Fox's entire slate of films to be comprised of talking animals next year.

[Howard Alan Treesong]

Full furry five thy profit lies
Of his future are fursuits made;
Those are dollars that were his eyes

[Diunx]

I think avatar is the only good film that fox has release this decade( searchlight doesn't count)

[The Fake Shemp]

That's not necessarily high praise. Fox has been regarded as the worst place to work creatively in the industry for quite sometime.

[Diunx]

But cameron and lucas can pretty much do whatever they fucking want with fox's money.

[The Fake Shemp]

Fox didn't really finance the Star Wars prequels, Lucas did. Fox just distributed them. They were in essence, independent films. So Fox really had no say on what Lucas could or could not do.

Fox isn't even the only investor on Avatar, but they are the majority partner. Cameron was pretty much given a blank check, but the studio owes him big time, so that's probably the only time that'll happen.

For most, it is a pretty crummy studio to work for when developing features.

[Diunx]

I wish they would give the x-men franchise back to marvel, there is so much fucking potential with those mutants and fox keep getting shitting writers to work on them, is depresing to us x-fans.

[The Fake Shemp]

To be fair to Bryan Singer, Fox pretty much gutted his treatments due to budgetary concerns and constantly meddled in the production. There were something like a billion writers working on X-Men, and direct studio interference with the sequels, so I can't really fault the writers. The best writers in the world won't make a difference if the studio refuses pony up the money necessary to realize some of the flashier elements of the source material, or if studio chairman Tom Rothman insists on dicking around with the talent.

[recursivelyenumerable]

I find this reference to "weird comics" intriguing.  Can you guys hook me up with some?

[Diunx]

Do you want some Alan Moore porn comics? or some Steve Ditko political bullshit?

[chronovore]

Full furry five thy profit lies
Of his future are fursuits made;
Those are dollars that were his eyes

I thought That's really well written, and then scoped the avatar. Welcome back, you glutton.

[Bacchus7]

[BlueTsunami]

Oh man, Dexter's facial expression exemplifies "I'm buying tickets to a furry movie" perfectly

[chronovore]

But that's harsh because the furry hater GOEZ TO JAIL!

spoiler (click to show/hide)

and dies.

[close]

[Beezy]

Emma 

cutest boy in that pic

[Solo]

We can only hope.

The film cost $380 million. It wasn't like it was going to make that back anyway. I have no idea what Fox was thinking with that budget. When your film is all spectacle, and everyone thinks the story and characters are disposable at best, you're not talking about anything with legs.

Domestically? No, it wont make $380M. Worldwide? It will sail past that with ease. There is no way this doesnt make at least $700M worldwide.

I also think you're really underselling the legs. I havent spoken to a person who HAS ACTUALLY SEEN IT that doesnt plan to see it again. Never underestimate the power of spectacle to get asses in the seats more than once.

[Eel O'Brian]

I find this reference to "weird comics" intriguing.  Can you guys hook me up with some?

google "fabulous furry freak brothers"

also http://www.johnnyr.com/

[Diunx]

This snow shit reminds me of the blackouts during the premiere of James Cameron's Aquaman on Entourage

[ManaByte]

Saw it last night. About halfway through the movie about two or three people in the rows behind me were snoring pretty loud.

[ManaByte]

Who needs Ambien when you have Avatar?

[Barry Egan]

it's pretty gay of you to put Terminator and Avatar together in the number 2 spot like that.  You know you'd never hang an avatar poster on your wall because the whole movie just looks so froofy.  I guess what I'm saying is, I don't think you've really thought about how peoples perception of you will change for liking Avatar this much.  What would a women say?  What would the guys at the bar think?

[Mandark]

Oh please let this turn into Manabyte vs. Green Shinobi for three pages.

[Barry Egan]

hmm.  Both good points.  I concede.

[ManaByte]

The theater I went to was handing out posters (the face one, not the final poster). Didn't grab one though.

[Phoenix Dark]

fffffffffuck

[fistfulofmetal]

damn

[The Fake Shemp]

How am I annihiliated? I said I expected it to turn a profit in theaters.

If you can't see why making $700 million (maybe less) off of a production that folks put closer to $500 million in costs isn't that great, versus something like a $300 million film that grosses $800 million - you're probably Green Shinobi!

[Barry Egan]

How am I annihiliated? I said I expected it to turn a profit in theaters.

If you can't see why making $700 million (maybe less) off of a production that folks put closer to $500 million in costs isn't that great, versus something like a $300 million film that grosses $800 million - you're probably Green Shinobi!

Still, what you're talking about is a franchise that's already struck up deals with Mcdonalds, Toy manufacturers etc., will probably be spun off in to a television series...really there's a ton of bank to be made outside of ticket sales. 

[Himu]

Avatar

[Diunx]

Fucking great news, movie is doing awesome here, the lines start like an hour before the movie begins for the 3d version which is something pretty rare here, the last movie I remember waiting in line for was fucking pokemon

[The Fake Shemp]

Still, what you're talking about is a franchise that's already struck up deals with Mcdonalds, Toy manufacturers etc., will probably be spun off in to a television series...really there's a ton of bank to be made outside of ticket sales.

Ancillary profits are not really a big deal to executives or the industry. It's like the "bu bu bu on home video it will be huge!" bit. It doesn't matter. Studios don't greenlight films for ancillary profits and back catalog revenue. The only exception is when the various media and properties are all managed in-house, like when Disney or Warner Bros. leverages its properties over a variety of mediums.

I never said Fox won't pull a profit, and I think it will. I think grossing more than Transformers is pretty laughable, though. You can quote me on that. It's already launched in every major market except China.

... but it'd have to gross somewhere between $600 million to $700 million to break even with production and promotional costs. Again, I don't really see how that's a great investment (most studios won't). But, yeah, most studios invest in films to do a little more than break even in theaters and make money with residuals, Green Shinobi.

[AdmiralViscen]

You are the one who brought up home video and tie ins

That is the dumbest logic ever. Romance is always bankable, but Titanic was lightning in a bottle. Science fiction, historically, is a tougher sell. I think Fox will eventually turn a profit, probably on home video and with ancillary revenues, but - man! - think of all the more affordable projects that could have been financed and how much more profit Fox could have seen as a result.

I just don't see how you could front that much money unless you felt you could make two to three times that amount.

But now you knew it'd turn a profit in the!ters

[The Fake Shemp]

Because I think that's where it will make a profit. I still don't think it's a shoe-in to turn a profit in theaters! It'd have to gross over $700 million worldwide to do so. And to be fair, I did say probably. I'm kind of unsure where the market will go with this.

... but let's not kid ourselves and think that Fox executives are ecstatic to be making money from home video and ancillary, they're not. The landscape is littered with films that have healthy residual revenue and tie-in merchandise that are pretty much considered failures by those that greenlit them.

Godzilla comes to mind.

[Great Rumbler]

I said I expected it to turn a profit in theaters.

I still don't think it'll make a profit in theaters!

 

[The Fake Shemp]

Let me reiterate my position, because I'm obviously putting my foot in my mouth. I do not feel it's likely to turn a profit in theaters, but I do feel it will turn a profit for Fox. I am just not that confident that it'll do more than $600 million, which I consider the break even point for Avatar.

[Diunx]

Got this from Rob Liefeld twitter: http://www.mcdonalds.ie/MMMMenu/Avatarize-Yourself.aspx?mid=32349772.3

[Great Rumbler]

You know, I do like to bring up the "Just think how many movies like Moon or District 9 could have been made for the price of one TF2!!", but the truth is that a major studio is NOT going to spend that money making a bunch of movies like Moon or District 9. That money was always going to go to make some bloated, big budget epic. Always.

At least with Avatar, we got some of the most amazing CG and 3D effects ever put onto film couple with a scope and scale that are among the largest ever put onto film. And if Fox goes bust, then the money was clearly well spent.

[The Fake Shemp]

I don't think Fox will go bust. And I was incorrect in even assuming Fox is the majority investor (although Fox is on the line for $230 million in production costs and $150 in promotional costs); two other production companies make up 60% of costs related to Avatar.

A little more digging uncovers that Cameron will also be able to recoup some of the production costs by licensing some of the software created for Avatar out to other filmmakers (so, Shinobi, you score a point).

[Editor's Note: That said, this junk that he created 3D cameras and invented new technology in his garage is pretty much marketing garbage.]

There is money to be made, but it doesn't seem like that much considering the ridiculous amount invested into the production. I just don't get that. I'm not saying Fox should greenlight a bunch of small, indie movies, but it would have been more economical to spend a third of the amount on a property with a built-in fanbase. And I'm not talking about from an entertainment perspective, I'm just talking shop here.

Also, I'm not a fan of mega-budget films in general. Raimi got sloppier the more money he was allowed to burn, and it took a relatively low-budget film to get him out of his slump. Peter Jackson turned in a mediocre, bloated film after Lord of the Rings (which stretched its budget to a ridiculous extent) garnered him a blank check from Universal.

Imagine if Cameron had to compromise, and find out what matters to the story and what is just spectacle garbage.

I would honestly expect nothing less from Cameron than a competent production and cutting-edge technology. Its financial success doesn't even bother me, simply because it will legitimatize 3D films as a mainstream option for filmmakers. The critical and fan worship is gag-inducing, though.

In before Patel and/or Cohen say it sucks.

[Diunx]

Why is it gag inducing? whats so bad about critics and regular moviegoers loving this? you should just watch the fucking movie already.