NINTENDO is going to be the last one laughing. I'm no analyst and I'm purely speculating. However, I think that Nintendo really has a long term plan, at least in the next three years, that's going to surprise everyone.
1. Wii household penetration is 96 million.
Look at that number for a second. Never mind that moms and grandmas only bought one game, and that the hardcore have tossed the system in their closets. That 96 million is an audience that Nintendo actually STILL has, and growing when you consider how cheap the wii has become, and will continue to get. When you add in stuff like the canadian 100.00 wii w/o wifi (surely, they're going to expand that), and one acknowledges that the price will drop even more, you have a situation where, theoretically, anybody who wants a fitness and casual party machine can have one. Nintendo already has the capability to do what Microsoft is TRYING to do next generation with their rumored two-sku casual/hardcore system. The box is already in people's homes. All Ninty needs to do is supply a stream of creative casual software for that base, and they will NEVER need another system again. And, if they do...
2. The Wii U. It doesn't need much to succeed.
Of the 96 million people that own a wii, 4 million are actual hardcore gamers. This number can be surmised by the amount of Zeldas and Mario Galaxies sold. Specifically Zelda. That number says that there are 4 million dedicated playing gamers on the Wii Console. Those are the hardcore gamers that stuck with Nintendo.
Now, factor in people like me. I left Nintendo at Gamecube. I've always loved Nintendo, but refused to stay with them in the SD era with their steadfast stance on the wii mote control scheme. That's where I drew the line. Essentially, the Wii U is the HD Wii with a control that I can actually use, with the addition of the controls of the wii - now improved - with Motion Plus. So what does that mean exactly? I get to play all of the good stuff - should I choose to go backwards - with all of the teething out of the way with any growing platform. So my reward in 2012? A Nintendo system with the parity of current gen consoles, and the added bonus of fantastic Nintendo experiences that I ignored for the last 6 years.
If you go under the assumption that Nintendo is not interested in being a hardcore gamer's PRIMARY console, this opens up some very interesting avenues. Should Nintendo get even TEN percent of SONY and XBOX owners to pick up the Wii U as a SECONDARY console, you start to see something very interesting....
a. 4 Million gamers are currently WITH Nintendo as evidenced by Zelda sales.
b. 5-10 million (10% of 50 million) over 4 years pick up Wii U as a secondary system. (50 mill MS owners, 50 mill PS3 owners, 10% = 5-10 mill).
Potentially, over the next 4 years, Wii begins to have a very quiet foothold. Not including the casuals that might upgrade within the next 4 years - which we could conservatively estimate at 1 million), Wii U probable install base by 2015-2016 is an additional 10 million households. Again, this is JUST for the hardcore. Never mind the atomic bomb sitting in 96 million people's closets already, which can be capitalized on at any time as an entertainment APPLIANCE.
I suspect that Pachter may be very wrong here. 10 million hardcore people (conservatively) is a VERY attractive audience to 3rd parties. Why? Consider...
3. Easy Ports.
Looking at the Wii Launch on the surface, and the gut reaction to the hardware breakdowns is that Wii U was a disaster. The CPU - on paper - bottlenecks performance. The system isn't going to be worth anything once the next gen consoles come out. Etc, etc.
Now, let's look at what ACTUALLY happened. As wonky as Arkham City looked, or as glitchy as (insert game) was, the reality is that Nintendo didn't give anybody final Dev kits until the very last second. Basically, these launch games are actually minor miracles. Or, to be certain, DIRECT ports without a shitload of time for optimization on the WiiU.
Let's REALLY consider that for a second. Given time and resources, I think most developers could get nearly anything to run as good as anything on the current gen hardware competitors. I said in another post that it was unlikely, but that's before I did some research. Put plainly, ANYTHING on the current gen systems can very likely run WELL on the WiiU with enough time and tweaking. The games that we see at launch are actually a testament to the power of the system and it's ease of development. Those games run like this and are this 'solid' without being given real TLC time. Imagine what happens when a developer is given that time?
So now the regular line of thinking on GAF is, so what? The Next Gen is right around he corner! That, and my argument goes...
4. Are we REALLY that ready for next gen?
You guys watch the same shows that I do. Bonus Round. GTTV. You read Kotaku. You laugh at the 'analyst' stories. However, one thing is VERY obvious: These games aren't cheap to make. Period. So I'm looking at Star Wars 1313 and Watch Dogs going, MAN, these games LOOK amazing, right? We're talking YEAR ONE PS4 and X720 games looking that good. Easy.
But I think that everyone reading GAF knows that once our inner graphics lust subsides, that core game has to shine through. At this rate, the next generation is looking like a LOT more Call of Duty, Halo, and insert big AAA franchise. I'm saying, "that's totally cool! There's totally a place for that!" However, when you listen to the devs talk, you'll hear a lot about 'freemium models' and IAPs, DLC, and better Xbox Live infrastructure. Sure, some of them do talk about better animations and voice acting, but mostly, over the past year, we've heard a LOT about making micro-transactions and cloud gaming better in the next generation. Frankly, even if the graphics are 5x more powerful on the next consoles, it won't be enough to KEEP gamers. It certainly won't be enough to win over a ton of new ones?
We've reached the law of diminishing returns when it comes to graphics. It was very easy to justify going from SD to HD, even to casuals. The experience of playing, say, Madden is that much more improved - dramatically visually - from PS2 to PS3. The jump in the next gen? Probably not so much. At least not at the cost that the consumer is willing to pay.
I'm reading Pachter's quote above, and he's right. From a business perspective, COD *should* be monetizing the multiplayer. That's kind of my point. If you're looking at the next generation from a completely business perspective - and with the cost of gaming and the financial investment that it takes to create a new game these days - these monetary factors take the utmost importance. This is why all you're hearing about next gen is improvements on backend stuff. Will there be a jump in graphics? Of course. Will it matter ultimately? Not with these studios dying or being absorbed left and right. That's not what I personally want the gaming future to be, ie, a series of micro-transactions...
Which brings me to the graphics engines.
5. That Unreal 4 Engine.
Go big or go home, right? What's so sweet about it is that, like the UNITY engine, the engine is made to be easy to use. Of the upcoming engines, this is supposedly the easiest to use, and is scaleable by platform. I'm no dev, so I'm only going by what the press says.
The idea, according to Epic, was to bring some of the development costs down. Ideally, a creator, even a 3D artist theoretically, can make a competent game fairly quickly utilizing UE4. At least that's the sales pitch.
Unless these various next-gen engines are incredibly easy to use, these development costs are going to continue to be through the roof. And to what end? As we look at the games that have impressed us at this point in the cycle, ART has stood out more than engine performance. Do we want graphically powerful games? Sure. But would, say SKYRIM be THAT much better with better tech, or could the game go on for two more years with well rounded DLC that builds on the existing world they've created? Walking Dead and Journey, two of this year's VGA GOTY games aren't technological powerhouses, but story or art driven experiences that have unique visual styles. Even Dishonored, which isn't pushing the most advanced engine in the world stands out for it's gameplay and artistic choices.
In fact, I'll go out on a limb as saying that we've not seen NEARLY the end of what this generation can do with regards to new gaming experiences. Rockstar and Bethesda has gone on record as saying that they're TOTALLY FINE with this generation. With the current installed user base, I have a hard time believing that any amount of PR, marketing, or graphic bump will convince anyone to shell out the, what? 400.00 for ANY new next gen console? At least not in the numbers of success we've seen in THIS generation.
Not without some sort of technological experience enhancing evolution. Something like...
6. Oculus Rift.
There's a reason that half the industry lost their shit when they experienced the OR. It's a way to experience games in a way that has been dreamed about for years. Since many of us where children. Screw 3D gaming and screw Holograms. OR allows you to experience new AND OLD games in an entirely new way if it actually works.
OR is the type of thing that would grab the casuals AND the hardcore, which is why I think we've seen it in the development docs of the Microsoft leaks, and why VR has been hinted at with the next Playstation. Problem is, Kinect, while interesting, doesn't QUITE work, and MOVE never caught on. Then, a funny thing happened while i was playing my WiiU...
7. Nintendo Might be closer to VR than anybody else.
Once you listen to Carmak talk about latency and speed, then you see the Wii U gamepad, you realize that Nintendo has actually licked it. They've got the foundation for it right there in their Wii U. Essentially, isn't the Oculus Rift just TWO gamepads screens stuck to a head mounted unit? the motion control with the gamepad is damn near 1:1, and incredibly impressive. What would happen if Ninty sold some type of game enhancing add-on - and for the sake of argument, we'll call it a Virtual Boy 2 - and changed the way we experience EXISTING games? Now, things like Skyrim, Doom, hell, ANY existing game becomes a lot more interesting, and, NOW POSSIBLE on the WiiU.
However, even with that possibility, i still don't think that's Nintendo's real secret weapon.
8. The E-store and comfortable social gaming.
Nintendo is incredibly smart. I own an iPad 3, Xbox 360, PS3, and a laptop. I went from a hardcore iPAD nut to realizing very quickly that most of the things that I love to do on my iPad, I can now do on my Wii U Gamepad. Even Web browsing. It can't be said enough how comfortable web-browsing is with the Gamepad. More, when I'm playing NSMBU, I actually play it - prefer it, actually - on the gamepad. Sure, I wish that it had that crisp iPAD resolution, but the Gamepad is more comfortable, has analog sticks that work beautifully, and has actually made me question when/if more indie devs from steam and iOS will begin to make games for Nintendo with the ability to set their own price.
While iOS/mobile devs are trying desperately to keep their games noticed and monetized with bottom barrel prices and iAP trickery, some of those games will actually work better on the gamepad fetching higher prices. $10.00 for just about ANY indie game seems like a fair starting price, wouldn't you say? Nintendo seems to think so. It's like they're setting a minimum for quality again, and they've secretly given the portability of the iPAD with a home console. You can't actually appreciate it until you've tried using the gamepad to play the games. It's a thing of beauty, and Nintendo knows that this is something that the competitors can't do. Perhaps Sony with some kind of VITA/PS3 combination, but it will take effort and will be an afterthought. With the WiiU, this attack was planned.
9. First Party Ace.
The real reason (I suspect) that Nintendo didn't put out the Wii HD sooner is because they couldn't. They physically COULDN'T. They don't have large dev teams. They don't have the resources. They do what they do EXTREMELY well, which is make excellent games. This is their Ace in the hole. Didn't we just read a report this week about how despite MS Xbox success, it isn't enough to hold MS? Or, that Sony is struggling because of the weight of their OTHER divisions outside of gaming? The competition has always had more money to throw at their pet projects than Nintendo. Now, we're starting to see as we go into the next gen that despite Xbox and Playstation's varying levels of success, ultimately, they were simply side projects of larger corporations.
Gaming is ALL Nintendo does. They don't over-extend. They watch, wait, and execute. This is so obvious with the WiiU. I have no clue what RETRO is working on, but I promise that the their hinted engine will really WOW people with regards to what the system can do. Iwata has said as much. The slow trickle of first gen mega-hits will be impressive, I think, but will require an incredible patience from the fans. This is why that ease of porting from 3rd parties is so important. However, the real gem comes from the indie devs and Miyamoto's secret first party master class at Nintendo.
The announcement was a quiet one, but while Nintendo Japan restructured into a single location pulling vets from Square and a number of other Japanese powerhouses to make first party games, Miyamoto pretty much becomes headmaster of developing talent.
Expect Miyamoto-san and the brightest from Nintendo to release a stream of small Game-pad friendly e-store titles, of a speed and quality the likes of which Nintendo has never done before. Essentially the e-store will be the Apple Store, but with more quality. Tons of indie games, tons of First party nintendo smaller games, and if we're lucky, some HD re-releases of GC and Wii classics.
Nintendo knows that they cannot put out 5 HUGE games a year. Their announcement of working with studios to create the larger games was like a light in the dark. Japan has talked about real east-west development, and Nintendo is actually making that happen.
The gamepad and e-store is Ninty's biggest weapon that nobody saw coming.
While Sony and MS plan out their goliath machines for 2013 or 2014, the wiiU might be exactly what enough people might want as a secondary console such that with the above outlined strategy, it potentially becomes people's ONLY console within 2-3 years.
That's my guess.
They don't
own this audience. As past trends have demonstrated, the video game consumer is incredibly fickle. Case in point, NES (61M) -> SNES (51M) -> N64 (32M)
Systems cannot sell on
brand alone.
This is wishful thinking at best. The WiiU 'needs' a lot to be successful! Also, with regards to the dedicated 'Nintendo' fanbase we can assume that is approximately 18M-23m based on the sales of the gamecube and their flaigship franchises. Beyond this audience, you encounter the new type of consumer that Nintendo attracted with their 'new-gen' type experiences they offered.
The WiiU is going to considerably 'specced' out by the PS4 and Xbox 720 much like its predecessor the Wii. If anything, the third party support may be considerably less impressive than the Wii depending on the market penetration over the next 18 months.
I wouldn't say easy 'ports' and considering the potential disparity between the successors of the Xbox and PlayStation. You may see another generation of poor third party support due to Nintendos hardware choice.
The WiiU is $350, the same can apply to the WiiU. Does anyone really want to spend on a WiiU when the PS3/X360 offers the experiences that they already want? And in some respect, it offers a superior experience due to the superior online infratructure that these consoles offer. I would go even further to say, that if the WiiU fails, it will primarily driven by Nintendos mishandling of online gaming.
VR Gaming from Nintendo? I'll comment if they move in that direction but based on what they're offering now, its worrying and the signs of a company that is finding it difficult to compete in an increasingly more connected environment.
1st Party = they will retain a good fanbase and remain fairly profitable.
The WiiU pad: The appeal of this falls considerably as the race to the bottom with 7" tablets continue.
