Considering how badly the other 2 went i am feeling really confident of Nintendo doing well in the holidays, Iwatas job is safe imo.
If things stayed as they are, they'd probably still get butt-raped... other consoles have FIFA, GTA etc. - but providing E3 brings good game announcements and the price is sensible by Christmas, they MAY have a chance. I am as bewildered by Microsoft's launch conduct so far as I have been by Nintendo's. The TV shit is gonna be great to use, but I never expected such a huge emphasis on it at Xbox One's first reveal.
I'm not their biggest fan, so I hate to say this - but provided Sony don't bend over and shove a studded dildo covered in razor wire up their arse, and avoid a $599 situation -- their hype machine could see them do best easily this holiday.