The thing about Obamacare is that it's no longer an abstract spectre. It exists, and tons of people are signing up. The federal and state exchanges are doing well, and if MA's Romneycare situation is a guide we can expect an onslaught of last minute signups right before December 23rd.
No matter what happens in 2014, the president will remain a democrat meaning the law isn't going anywhere. But that brings us to the point about the law existing. By the time the 2016 primaries start, in late 2015/early 2016, there will be at least 5-6mil people signed up for private insurance through Obamacare, and perhaps even more signed up in the Medicaid expansion. How are republicans going to campaign on taking millions of people's health care away? We already saw the freakout over a few million people losing their (shitty) insurance plans, how will any candidate successfully run on eliminating millions of people's less shitty insurance plans? I just don't see that as being a feasible electoral goal. Especially considering it's unlikely any of the candidates will have their own health care plans.
Let's not forget that in 2008 multiple democrat candidates have extensive healthcare plans. IIRC John Edwards had the best universal healthcare plan, Hillary had one, and Obama had a slightly less ambitious one (with no mandate). Their plans had been analyzed by the CBO, they weren't simple bullet points on two pieces of paper. And more than a few of the ideas from those plans went into the ACA. Given the right's disinterest in actually governing, I can't imagine any of them having a detailed healthcare plan ready in 2016.
Ultimately, republicans will have to settle for sabotaging the law in the short term, and making it better (or worse) in the long term. I can see a republican running on adding tort reform to Obamacare, or allowing people to purchase insurance across state lines. Basically the typical ideas that don't work.
