US Politics Thread |OT| THE DARKEST TIMELINE

[HyperZoneWasAwesome]

Trump wants to dump money into the VA?

Holy shit! Awesome! The Pubs have been blocking serious VA reform for years (Government Healthcare = BAD), and slow-walking whatever modest improvements that are made. That Trump gets to point out (while blaming Obama, but still) that congressional obstructionism is the specific reason that the VA sucks these days is actually kinda laudable. If he can make this an issue that the other candidates have to answer to (why don't we sufficiently fund the VA) then The Donald might actually accomplish some good, however accidentally.

[ToxicAdam]

I just spent a week with my father in law, who watches Fox News religiously (he's right in their demographic sweet spot: 75 yr old white male). So, in passing I would see Trump on there blathering about all sorts of things.

He was on there talking about how poor our infrastructure was/is and how quickly we are getting passed up by other countries. He then went on how he "would fix" that if he became President. It's self-serving, of course, because he has so many ties to the construction business world. But, not once do he mention how we would pay for it nor did the (numerous) Fox talking heads even follow up with a question.

 

[HyperZoneWasAwesome]

Yeah, he's actually making some halfway decent points, stuff that no other Republican would mention (because it doesn't serve the party orthodoxy). He's not offering any solutions, but he is doing an excellent job in pointing out the holes in the GOP's platform (that being, they don't actually want to help people).

I think this is actually the reason for his ascent (well that, and the awfulness) in the polls. Its not that people like him, its that he's so radically different from any other republican. If his message wasn't wrapped up in a big pile of toxic pomposity and xenophobia he could actually have something here.

[Great Rumbler]

Racist, hillbilly Texans [redundant] are shook over the prospect of Muslim cemetery coming to their town:

Muslims say they're looking for a place to bury their dead. Locals say it's a plot to gain a foothold in their small rural Texas town.

A proposal to bring a Muslim cemetery to Farmersville has stoked fears among residents who are vehemently trying to convince community leaders to block the project. The sentiment reflects an anti-Muslim distrust that has been brewing over the last year in parts of Texas, most notably 25 miles away in Garland — the scene of a deadly May shooting outside a cartoon contest lampooning the Prophet Muhammad.

"The concern for us is the radical element of Islam," David J. Meeks, pastor of Bethlehem Baptist Church, told The Dallas Morning News. He said he thinks the cemetery would be the first step toward a broader Muslim expansion in town.

"How can we stop a mosque or madrassa training center from going in there?" he asked, referring to a type of Islamic school.

The issue is flaring up as Farmersville leaders consider a 35-acre development request from the Islamic Association of Collin County, which faces a shortage of space to bury members of its faith. Although the area already has a Buddhist center and Mormon church, residents showed up in force at a recent town meeting to oppose allowing a Muslim cemetery, which would include an open-air pavilion and small retail component that would run along a busy highway through town.

"When somebody dies, they bury them at that time," Farmersville resident Troy Gosnell told KTVT-TV. "You don't know whether they were shot, diseased or anything else. All they do is wrap them in a sheet, throw them in the grave and bury them."

[Joe Molotov]

Steve King's Muslim Sematary

[Brehvolution]

Freedom of some religions.

[Sausage]

There are Muslims in Farmersville?

[CatsCatsCats]

Only dead ones

[Great Rumbler]

Only dead ones

[chronovore]

I just spent a week with my father in law, who watches Fox News religiously (he's right in their demographic sweet spot: 75 yr old white male). So, in passing I would see Trump on there blathering about all sorts of things.

He was on there talking about how poor our infrastructure was/is and how quickly we are getting passed up by other countries. He then went on how he "would fix" that if he became President. It's self-serving, of course, because he has so many ties to the construction business world. But, not once do he mention how we would pay for it nor did the (numerous) Fox talking heads even follow up with a question.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/study-watching-fox-news-makes-you-less-informed-than-watching-no-news-at-all-2012-5

[benjipwns]

ABC News/Wash Post
Clinton 63, Sanders 14, Biden 12, Webb 2, O'Malley 1, Chafee 0
Clinton +49

With Biden out (he hasn’t announced a candidacy), most of his support goes to Clinton, boosting her to 68 percent.

[Human Snorenado]

[TakingBackSunday]

I'd vote for Bernie

[Madrun Badrun]

Me too

[Kara]

I probably wouldn't, but it doesn't matter because of the Electoral College.

[benjipwns]

voting 

[Mandark]

voting 

[Kara]

I'll never be a Taggart but California's electoral system still let me vote on whether or not to build a train system.

[benjipwns]

Well, vote on whether or not to spend billions deciding whether or not to decide if they should build a train in the middle of nowhere or to a crappy spot to drop someone off with no further transportation in LA. Oh, and we already spent it anyway, we need more.

California's Dream Train 

[Madrun Badrun]

spend billions deciding whether or not to decide if they should build a train in the middle of nowhere

I'd bet you guys would go for it if politicians had a plan to get it done in 5 years.

[benjipwns]

In America we use 14 year "plans":

With an anticipated construction and planning cost of $68.4 billion (in year-of-expenditure dollars) for Phase 1, the project is the most expensive public works project in United States history.[7] Its cost and scope have been major points of contention, and the project has had to contend with a number of lawsuits seeking to stop it. Although these cases have thus far delayed the project by a few years, none of them have been successful, and construction on the project is now underway. Phase 1 is not due for completion until 2029, however not all necessary funding for its completion has been identified.

IIRC, the only reason they actually started construction is they had to by some date to get the federal grants. And that's after a number of extensions.

[Kara]

Well, vote on whether or not to spend billions deciding whether or not to decide if they should build a train in the middle of nowhere or to a crappy spot to drop someone off with no further transportation in LA. Oh, and we already spent it anyway, we need more.

California's Dream Train 

It's a good thing market failures don't exist, this sounds like it could be embarrassing if they did.

[benjipwns]

The market solved the "problem" with giant slingshots that fling large metal birds with people inside them into the air in the general direction of a destination.

[Mandark]

No market outcomes can be failures since they reflect, by definition, the preferences of those involved.

the ouroboros of revealed preference

Also pretty sure anything that looks like the private sector fucking up is really the result of Carter-era legislation that, for mysterious reasons, only takes effect decades later and also simultaneously in Spain.

[Phoenix Dark]

You laugh but we wouldn't have this problem if not for the trains section of the Community Reinvestment Act
 

[benjipwns]

If only The Great Deregulator had gone further. But Teddy got anxious and ran for President instead of doing more democratization with JC.

[benjipwns]

Now, Dad, did he really tell you you could shoot up his car?

With my nail gun.

  Peacemaker.

[Joe Molotov]

voting 

Assuming you'll still be allowed to vote in 2016: Obama's America :'(

[Barry Egan]

The second sequence is if Trump runs third party in the general election.   

I would put money down on him doing it, too.  Why in the world would he pass up all those additional months of attention and publicity?  Running for president is the richest vein of narcissistic supply he's ever tapped.   

[Joe Molotov]

Who are these 4% of Hillary voters that are like "Romney choked like a dog, but Trump can get things done!"?

[Kara]

Absent a credible threat Clinton voters could decide to not vote. I know I hold my nose and vote only when I have to.

[Mandark]

Opinion polls this far out are almost meaningless.  They show name recognition and not much else.

By the time the primaries are over, Trump won't have won any states, he'll have been rhetorical target for politicians of both sides, he'll be polling much lower and the novelty will have worn off.  At that point he'll sit out the general election and tell anybody who will listen that he would have won as an independent.

[Barry Egan]

This poll (the GOP primary portion of it at least) does matter for at least one thing  - it's likely to be one of those used to determine who enters the first GOP debate.   

I know that if Trump were to run as a third party it would be after his honeymoon with the base had ended and he wouldn't receive nearly as much of the vote as the poll indicates, but even if he threatened to shave 1% off of the Republican's totals it could present a real obstacle for them.  And I think it's difficult to predict whether he'd actually go that route because his entire campaign defies rational deliberation (he has already said he would consider running third party if it came to that, though that's neither here nor there).  It's a possibility that has at least non-zero odds of happening. 

[Phoenix Dark]

Most interesting thing about Trump's numbers is that the first two days of the polling survey had him in the 20s, but the third day (after the McCain comments) had him in single digits.

[Mandark]

Barry, that's pretty much it.  Any honest adviser or pollster would tell him he'd get crushed in the general, but I'm sure there would be plenty willing to boost his ego if they got a job or a commission off of it.  Might come down to whether his ego benefits more from the attention during the campaign, or from not actually losing.

"Oh yeah, I thought about running as an independent.  Commissioned some polls from Frank Luntz and Mark Penn, best pollsters out there, expensive but they do great work.  Really top guys.  So both of them tell me 'Donald, you beat Hillary and Jeb head to head, you're the only one people know from outside politics, you should run!'  But you know, Jeb probably wouldn't drop out, since the party already sank so much money into that campaign, so even if he's taking five, ten percent of my vote, that might be enough to cost me the election and I didn't want to be the guy who put Hillary in office, yanno?  Plus if I win we're talking a yuuuuuuge paycut for eight years!"

I'd be comfortable betting at least $20 that Trump wins at least one state.

I'd put up 20 bucks against you not posting in the NBA thread.

[benjipwns]

[benjipwns]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/donald-trump-gives-out-lindsey-grahams-cell-phone-number-120414.html

If Lindsey Graham has to change cellphone numbers, he has Donald Trump to thank.

On Tuesday, Trump ramped up his attacks on the South Carolina senator — who made headlines Monday for calling the Donald a “jackass” — and even gave out Graham’s private phone number.

Trump began his rambling diatribe by calling Graham a “lightweight” and an “idiot.”

“He doesn’t seem like a very bright guy. He actually probably seems to me not as bright as Rick Perry. I think Rick Perry probably is smarter than Lindsey Graham,” Trump added, riffing on prior insults he had lobbed at the former Texas governor.

Then Trump transitioned to an embarrassing anecdote, which the billionaire real estate developer said was from a few years ago, in which Graham called Trump “begging” him for a good reference with Trump’s pals on the Fox News morning program “Fox & Friends.”

Trump said that he promised Graham he would put out a good word, and the South Carolina Republican then gave him his phone number to follow up.

Trump then read out what he said was Graham’s phone number, telling his supporters to “try it.”

“I wonder what caused that,” Graham told a POLITICO reporter who dialed the number, about the influx of calls.

[Joe Molotov]

Fucks Given = Over -9000

[benjipwns]

[benjipwns]

Trump running as an independent, after losing the Republican primaries, means he'll have to spend relatively gobs of his own money (compared to winning the GOP nomination) in a three month span to get on the ballot in every state except Michigan AND hit the CPD's moving target criteria or he's not in the debates. The media will cut him off with the rest of the non-Hillary/Walker candidates if he's not. And FOX certainly would.

If he really wants to run the in the general with his own money he's better off not getting on any GOP primary ballots, dropping out before Iowa after using those debates for free, and buying the Constitution Party's nomination.

[Phoenix Dark]

The only way I see him running third party is if the RNC fucks him over so much he decides to destroy their general election chances out of pure spite. For instance barring Trump from later primary debates, leaks, the eventual nominee being particularly tough on Trump during the early debates, etc. Why else would he waste money and not be able to share a debate stage with the two candidates. Everything he does is about TV coverage...if he gets none...

Under normal circumstances I expect him to drop out of the race after March's Super Tuesday contests. I'm assuming he'll do poorly in the first four contests (Iowa/NH/SC/NV) but stay in the race out of arrogance/not wanting to be one of the first guys out.

[Mandark]

I love that they're using the Jim Crow technique of setting "universal" criteria clearly designed to exclude a specific target, only instead of a race of people it's one embarrassing rich white dude.

[benjipwns]

You're telling me a dude who went bankrupt 4 times flashing his cash around won't run on his own money to placate his ego? Come on! He totally will even if it's a failure.

But it's completely different. His businesses were his financial lifeblood prior to respawning as a brand due to his success at going bankrupt.

An independent campaign is going to cost him tons out of pocket to put anything on the air as his poll numbers collapse, he has to fight to get on the ballot, the media cuts him off, he never gets any shot at the debates, etc.

The reason he wanted the Reform nomination in 2000 is that they had ballot status in 20+ states, were eligible for $12.5 million in public funding AND Trump would be able to pay himself back for loans. An independent bid doesn't have that option.

Perot spent $60+ million out of the $190 million total spent on the 1992 campaign. Including $40 million in October. In 1996 Perot spent almost none of his own money, $29 million was the federal funding, and unlike 1992 he took in donations. The campaign only spent slightly more than half that because he paid himself back from it. That was out of $240 million total spent.

Historical side note, Trump ran in the 2000 Independent California Primary though he had dropped out a month before you couldn't really get your name scratched from it (John Anderson had his name put in against his will):

Johm McCain 38.03%
Al Gore 21.84%
George W. Bush 21.29%
Bill Bradley 7.67%
Ralph Nader 4.29%
Alan Keyes 2.77%
Donald Trump 0.70%
Harry Browne 0.58%
George "Boots" Weber 0.44%
Steve Forbes 0.29%

With just registered Independents he did roughly about the same:

Al Gore Jr. 234,267
John S. McCain 216,172
George W. Bush 160,308
Bill Bradley 77,646
Ralph Nader 27,833
Alan L. Keyes 20,564
Harry Browne 3,432
Donald J. Trump 3,240

[Barraco Barner]

Barrack Hussein Obama leading from behind yet again

[brawndolicious]

I'm gonna stand by what I said before, unless he has a life wrecking scandal, he will not drop out before April. The man has absolutely no shame about anything he's said or done in public.

Beyond that, I won't even try to pretend like I'm an armchair Nate Silver as most of you are doing. Like you could ever predict he would insult POWs and Mexicans and not suffer much in the polls due to it.

[benjipwns]

Why would insulting Mexicans not boost your numbers in a GOP primary?

[Oblivion]

@jonathanweisman: Reporter: @SenatorReid, @realDonaldTrump read out loud @LindseyGrahamSC's cell number. Is he fit to run for president?

Reid: Who, Lindsey?

:

[benjipwns]

Meanwhile, in one time 2004 Democratic Presidential near-Frontrunner/Savior news:

If these people are radicalized and don’t support the United States, and they’re disloyal to the United States, as a matter of principal that’s fine, that’s their right. It’s our right and our obligation to segregate them from the normal community for the duration of the conflict.

Meanwhile, on Salon: http://www.salon.com/2015/07/20/why_libertarians_should_love_bernie_sanders/

[benjipwns]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/07/21/the-case-for-president-john-kasich.html

The reason Kasich is to be taken seriously in his bid for the White House, in addition to his enormous success in the Buckeye State, is that he has always overcome obstacles when people told him what he couldn’t. When he was just 18 and a freshman at Ohio State, Kasich pestered the secretary to then-OSU President Novice Fawcett for a meeting. When she relented and added him to the schedule, Kasich discovered that Fawcett was about to leave for a meeting with President Nixon.

Kasich was turned down in his request to join Fawcett’s meeting with the president, but he didn’t walk away empty-handed—Fawcett agreed to deliver a letter from the young freshman asking for his own meeting with the president.

In part, Kasich wrote on December 2, 1970: “I would immediately pass up a Rose Bowl trip to see you. My parents would permit me to fly down and see you anytime and I know my grades wouldn’t suffer…I know how busy you are and this is probably a ridiculous request but to me it would be a dream come true.”

Surprising nearly everyone except Kasich, Nixon agreed to a sit-down with the young student. The two would meet nearly three weeks later and Kasich spent nearly 20 minutes with the president. And, being Kasich, he wound up doing most of the talking.

Kasich’s empathy and compassion for others, particularly children in distress, is little known. We had a young woman named Christine Stephan who worked in Kasich’s office as in intern in the mid-1990s. Stephan was full of energy and life even though she had been diagnosed with cystic fibrosis and given little time to live. Kasich closely monitored her condition even after she had returned to Columbus following her internship to await a new set of lungs at Children’s Hospital.

Christine was a big fan of then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich. As she lay dying in her hospital bed, Stephan asked if Kasich could fulfill one of her final requests: a signed photograph of the new Speaker to place in her hospital room. Kasich’s eyes welled with tears when I told him of her wish—and I was blessed to deliver the treasured photo to her just days before her death in July 1997. The unbridled joy Christine took in receiving a photo from her political hero lit up the room with energy and light even as she lay dying.

John Kasich is ready to be president.

[Barraco Barner]

http://www.theonion.com/blogpost/admit-it-you-people-want-see-how-far-goes-dont-you-50895

[helios]

 

http://www.theonion.com/blogpost/admit-it-you-people-want-see-how-far-goes-dont-you-50895

The thing is, I’ve got all of you eating out of my hand and I haven’t even released a single campaign commercial yet. Don’t look me in the eye and tell me you don’t want to stick around and see what that looks like, because you and I both know these ads are going to be absolutely incredible. I’ll be standing there projecting my best presidential air, saying “I’m Donald Trump, and I approve this message,” and you won’t be able to take your eyes off it.

[benjipwns]

http://www.salon.com/2015/07/21/jesse_venturas_perfect_ann_coulter_putdown_what_has_she_ever_done_to_deserve_any_credibility_whatsoever/

Jesse Ventura: “Fifty percent of murders in Texas have been linked to illegal aliens…” you stated this on “The Greg Gutfeld Show,” in reference to Donald Trump’s comments on immigration from Mexico. But our friends at [Politifact] say your claim is false and call it a mighty exaggeration — you were talking about a statistic Ann Coulter referenced in her book. Who would give Ann Coulter a, what has she ever done to deserve any credibility whatsoever?

Gavin: What? Ann Coulter is one of my favorite, the most talented researchers in America today, she writes the most concise, astute, and compelling books I’ve ever read, and anyone’s ever read, her books are fantastic, they’re factually accurate, and I, I’ve tweeted the page that references that fifty percent, she was talking about a Rick Perry quote–

[Kara]

Read Vice y'all.

[CajoleJuice]

Read Vice y'all.

a buddy of mine writes for their sports now so 

[benjipwns]

Gavin's been gone from Vice for a long time, he shits on all sorts of stuff they do that he used to do constantly. And that he wrote a book praising.

Guy has gone through a weird as fuck transformation after having kids or maybe it's just because I've seen it happen in real time.

Or maybe he's just reached peak-troll in record time.

[Kara]

I'm too young for you to elderly abuse, son.

[benjipwns]

He's also Canadian so it's funny when he goes off on rants about the need to ban all immigration into the United States.

[Joe Molotov]

He's also Canadian so it's funny when he goes off on rants about the need to ban all immigration into the United States.

Maybe this is Canadian humor (humour?) that we don't understand?

[benjipwns]

So you're saying I have to wait until he gets a gig on SNL to get why people like him?

[benjipwns]

 

And the Jesse Ventura segment: http://www.ora.tv/offthegrid/gavin-fix-0_3epe9ipq1c6j

dat shirt