US Politics Thread |OT| THE DARKEST TIMELINE

[benjipwns]

[Shadow Mod]

"The documentary is the brainchild of Mr. Murphy, who produced a similar, 30-minute town hall-style infomercial for Meg Whitman’s unsuccessful bid for governor in California in 2010."

Man I'm in the wrong profession. Milking money from donors in a presidential campaign seems like the GOAT hustle. Jeb! is around 5-8% in polls, ranging from fourth to sixth place. What better way to change that than an expensive 15 minute doc ad!

I was talking with my a friend about this, how much money is raised and how you can pretty much half ass it and just keep whatever or use it to fund vacations for your fam while you "campaign." As sad as Jindal's running is you have to wonder how much he's banked  .

[Joe Molotov]

Get ready for JEBMENTIUM!!!!

Voters will soon get 15 unfiltered minutes of the Jeb Bush story.

Right to Rise, the “super PAC” supporting Mr. Bush, has produced a 15-minute documentary featuring him and will release it online on Saturday and will later show it on television.

Mike Murphy, the super PAC’s executive director, briefed Bush donors on the video at a breakfast meeting in Washington on Thursday morning before the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual gathering, at which Mr. Bush spoke. Right to Rise confirmed the group’s plans.

The documentary, which includes interviews with Mr. Bush and his wife, Columba, will talk about Mr. Bush’s record as the governor of Florida, as well as describe his vision for the future, including his plans to defeat the Islamic State and overhaul the federal government.

The plan is to air the spot in 30-minute blocks on the New England Sports Network, which would reach voters in New Hampshire — a crucial state for Mr. Bush, who has seen his poll numbers stagnate in the single digits. Voters in additional early primary states would also be targeted with the video digitally.

The documentary is the brainchild of Mr. Murphy, who produced a similar, 30-minute town hall-style infomercial for Meg Whitman’s unsuccessful bid for governor in California in 2010.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/12/03/bush-super-pac-to-tell-jebs-story-in-15-minute-documentary/

You will be made to care.

[tiesto]

I guess if there was absolutely nothing on TV I might watch a 30 minute infomercial for a presidential candi... wait no, I still wouldn't.

This sounds awful, and I'm the kinda person who religiously watches Chrontendo, a youtube series where a guy with a monotone voice will discuss the most obscure Famicom mahjongg game in excruciating detail.

[Phoenix Dark]

Jeb Bush is convincing donors the polls are wrong

Jeb Bush didn’t fix it. His attempted attacks on rivals have fallen flat. His $30 million in TV ads have failed to move his numbers. And now, with the Iowa caucuses less than two months away, he’s polling at a miserable 3 percent nationally.

But there’s one significant success that is keeping his campaign alive: Jeb Bush has convinced major GOP donors and supporters that the polls are wrong.

“I am like the Israelites following Moses, and I am not the only one,” said Mike Fernandez, the top donor to Bush’s super PAC, after a new CNN poll showed Bush an astounding 33 points behind the poll leader. “Unfortunately, it might not be that many of us.”

While rival campaigns boast that some Bush backers are making side bets on other candidates, hardly any Bush donors have publicly abandoned him — largely out of unwavering loyalty to an incomparable Republican dynasty and to a candidate many put on a pedestal in spite of his political shortcomings.

“Given the poll numbers currently, you would think there would be these massive defections from a campaign like this,” said Slater Bayliss, a Florida-based GOP operative and longtime Bush ally. “And the reason there haven’t been is Jeb Bush; because people believe he’s in it for the long haul and believe he’s a serious candidate — even in a cycle where serious doesn’t seem to be selling. They like him because he’s serious. Eventually, they think serious will sell.”

The campaign is also now talking about South Carolina, which will factor more in Saturday’s presentation than it has in earlier donor presentations in Kennebunkport, Maine, (which focused on New Hampshire) and in Houston (which focused on Iowa). South Carolina, the campaign says, has been good to the Bush family and the candidate’s internal polling numbers there and in New Hampshire show he’s doing better, and he’s converting more undecided voters into campaign volunteers.

The campaign, though, would not share its data.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/jeb-bush-donors-polls-216436#ixzz3tPHjaTwy

sound familiar? 

[Madrun Badrun]

If there is one thing Bush Republicans are good at, its ignoring data.

[Joe Molotov]

Unskew the Jeb!

[benjipwns]

Karl Rove has added about zero value to the Republican Party since 2004, and I'm sure he still gets paid a shitload.

[benjipwns]

hehehehehehehehe

[Joe Molotov]

I switched to Fox News that night after it was clear that Romney had lost, great TV.

[TakingBackSunday]

Soo...I'm getting a little scared that Trump is going to be my president.

[Great Rumbler]

Soo...I'm getting a little scared that Trump is going to be my president.

There is 0% chance that he wins in the general.

[brawndolicious]

There's no chance he'll win the general, but he'll influence the discussion of what the next president's policies should focus on. Shifting the discussion to the right and all. Plus it's super embarrassing that we would let a guy like that be the second closest contender for commander-in-chief.

[Tasty]

Soo...I'm getting a little scared that Trump is going to be my president.

There is 0% chance that he wins in the general.

I'd say there's a non-zero chance. Maybe like 5% depending on some crazy shit going down that increases xenophobia even more over the months until the election.

I'm still happy with my prediction, though:

Hillary Clinton is the next President of the United States.

[Madrun Badrun]

President Trump, let those words haunt you in your dreams. 

[Atramental]

If (and that's a big IF) Trump becomes president I would be so done with this hot mess of a country.

[Human Snorenado]

Benji, come get your boys

[Samson Manhug]

Soo...I'm getting a little scared that Trump is going to be my president.

There is 0% chance that he wins in the general.

[benjipwns]

Guy does a great Rand Paul voice impression.

Jabba the Trump's plan to build a Dyson Sphere around Naboo and make the Gungans pay for it

[Phoenix Dark]

I suppose there's a chance Trump wins if Hillary is arrested for e-treason in October 2016 but under normal circumstances he's not gonna win.

Imagine the down ballot wipeout that would happen with Trump at the top of the ticket. I simply don't believe he can win the nom.

[benjipwns]

A little while ago I went rug shopping. Four rugs were laid out on the floor and among them was one with a pink motif that was dazzlingly beautiful. It was complex and sophisticated. If you had asked me at that moment which rug I wanted, I would have said the pink one.

This conviction lasted about five minutes. But then my mentality flipped and I started asking some questions. Would the furniture go with this rug? Would this rug clash with the wall hangings? Would I get tired of its electric vibrancy?

Suddenly a subtler and more prosaic blue rug grabbed center stage. The rugs had not changed, but suddenly I wanted the blue rug. The pink rug had done an excellent job of being eye-popping on its own. The blue rug was doing an excellent job of being a rug I could enjoy living with.

For many Republicans, Donald Trump is their pink rug. He does the job that they want done at this moment. He reflects their disgust with the political establishment. He gives them the pleasurable sensation that somebody can come to Washington, kick some tail and shake things up.

But decision-making is a journey, not an early December snapshot. It goes in stages.

[Phoenix Dark]

Jeb really ties the room together.

[Joe Molotov]

Jeb fixes the cable?

[tiesto]

Soo...I'm getting a little scared that Trump is going to be my president.

I'm much more scared of Rubio or Cruz becoming pres since that situation is at least slightly grounded in reality... What I think will happen is once Iowa/NH hit, all the hasbeens will drop out and then the majority of the party will rally under a single establishment candidate. Trump's numbers don't really seem to be going anywhere, he has his fanbase but it's not growing or shrinking. Someone who chooses Bush in the polls isn't gonna go for Trump when Bush inevitably drops out, they'll go for someone like Rubio. (the fivethirtyeight argument)

[Samson Manhug]

We're already hearing the "moving to Canada" trope but I think as a progressive it would be more fun to live in Trump's America than Hillary's or even Obama's for the simple reason that it's easier to be completely 100% against everything that is going on at the White House then kind of/sort of for it/wishing it was more progressive/kind of disappointed/wondering if this is the best it will ever get.

In that respect the Right has had it really easy the last 7 years.

[Barry Egan]

here's a 15 minute Jeb! bio in case you're out of ambien...

[brob]

https://vine.co/v/iWPBPK2UpgX  poor jeb!, he really doesn't seem prepared win any audience.

[benjipwns]

here's a 15 minute Jeb! bio in case you're out of ambien...

For more or to share with your friends, visit TheJebStory.com

There is good news ahead for America. We just need a steady hand to lead us there. Someone who is used to making bold, courageous decisions. Someone who works toward fixing the problem before it becomes a crisis. This is The Jeb Story.

[benjipwns]

[Madrun Badrun]

Right to rise sounds like a Viagra slogan. 

[Joe Molotov]

Right to Rise is the name of my Persona 4 cover band.

[seagrams hotsauce]

'Right to Rise' sounds like a Skrewdriver album title

[Mandark]

We're already hearing the "moving to Canada" trope but I think as a progressive it would be more fun to live in Trump's America than Hillary's or even Obama's for the simple reason that it's easier to be completely 100% against everything that is going on at the White House then kind of/sort of for it/wishing it was more progressive/kind of disappointed/wondering if this is the best it will ever get.

In that respect the Right has had it really easy the last 7 years.

I'm a liberal who lived in the US during the Bush admin.  YMMV, but it wasn't that fun.

Not gonna talk that emigrant stuff, but a hypothetical Trump win would be hard to take, if only for the knowledge that so many people supported him.  Hell, I think he's going to crash and burn in the primaries, and it's still depressing how many people are backing him because of/in spite of his endless string of racist bullshit.

[Madrun Badrun]

If Trump won the nomination but got completely beaten in the election, wouldn't that cause some major shifts in the republic party? 

[benjipwns]

Trump is a liberal RINO.

[Trent Dole]

If Trump won the nomination but got completely beaten in the election, wouldn't that cause some major shifts in the republic party?

No, no it would not.This has happened repeatedly. It would cause some talk of refocusing and rebranding for a short while and then they' be on to complaining about whoever is in charge if it's not one of them and railing against 'RINO' people who just aren't fascistic enough for the party's hardcore far right segment.

Trump is a liberal RINO.

His past lefty contributions do make his running a bit questionable. I know somebody who thinks he's a trojan horse/double agent sort of figure secretly out to make the Dems win.

[Mandark]

If Trump won the nomination but got completely beaten in the election, wouldn't that cause some major shifts in the republic party?

Changing this question from "Trump" to "any candidate with extreme positions/rhetoric," the answer is maybe but probably not.

Parties will shift to deal with changing demographics or popular attitudes about stuff, but most politicians in a party care primarily about their winning in their own districts, so there can be a conflict between local an national incentives.  The DLC was formed to move the Democratic Party to the center by Dem politicians who felt like the party's image was hurting their chances.  I don't see a feeling like that in the GOP yet.

After Romney lost, parts of the GOP leadership suggested dropping or softening opposition to gay rights and to immigration, since those were hurting them with growing parts of the electorate.  The immigration thing brought a big backlash (Rubio tried to put together a bipartisan reform bill and now has to campaign against it).  They didn't really do anything to change on gay marriage, but the issue was settled by the Supreme Court and they mostly seem happy to not talk about it.

Basically, the most obvious ways of attracting new voters involve alienating big chunks of the people who already vote for them.  Not so much a problem of the GOP as a reflection of where the country is right now socially.

[brawndolicious]

Even if he fizzles out in the primary, Trump has had an enormous impact on this race, after 2016 I think his name will become a pejorative for politicians that try to grab the xenophobic, low hanging fruit.

I've probably said this in 2008 and 2012, but the party is going to be split based on agendas. You could say it's already happened with a dozen contenders in the Republican primary and the top polling candidates have usually been those with zero political experience (in the last couple months at least).

I'm wondering if Hillary would want to bet on waiting until after the 2020 census and the new district maps are drawn before aggressively pushing controversial legislation. It would be during her second term anyways.

[benjipwns]

[Madrun Badrun]

Now try to pronounce it any other way

[Phoenix Dark]

Right to rise sounds like a Viagra slogan.

Or a Civil War DLC pack.

[Phoenix Dark]

Barring a Trump wipeout I don't see democrats taking the house until after the 2020 census/redistricting. Which means it's hard to see Hillary getting any of her liberal agenda passed. Imagine what the perception of Obama would be if dems did not control the house and senate for the first two years; he got some major legislation through (you can argue over whether it was good or meh legislation).

Republicans have no reason to stop being crazy short term. They have the house, senate, and multiple governor positions. All they need is the WH to really go crazy agenda wise. If they can ride the crazy to the WH next year or in 2020 the reward will be huge. Of course long term they're hurting themselves. It's like keeping a basketball team together for one more championship run and trading draft picks.

[Human Snorenado]

Jokes's on you- the census happens in 2020, redistricting doesn't go into effect until 2022 elections, which are- stop me if you've heard this- a midterm election, which means no fairweather democrats will show up. Won't get better until 2024, which would require (hypothetically) Dems to hold the White House for 5 STRAIGHT ELECTIONS.

[Samson Manhug]

Just saw the president's speech from earlier. His audience was so clearly the uneducated rabble rousers of the right, it's like he was trying to corral them in with the second half. It's sad we even have to remind people that Muslim-Americans are our friends, neighbors, sports heroes, and service members—not that I think he changed one mind.

I'm going to miss this guy. Perhaps not the most effective president ever, but damn what a genuinely smart and caring guy. He'll probably be relegated to the Carter-tier of presidents of history, but Carter had the most thoughtful foreign policy of any president in my opinion so that's not such a bad place.

[Sman]

nm

[Phoenix Dark]

How will Obama be regulated to the Carter tier given Obamacare and the improvement of the economy alone? Not to mention social changes which he may or may not deserve credit for, yet will from historians. He's got quite a handful of concrete accomplishments which can't be said of many post LBJ presidents.

Personally I don't think he was some great president but it seems to me that history is lined up to appreciate his terms, given where things are going socially and demographics wise.

[Phoenix Dark]

www.jebbush.com

[Steve Contra]

So many Ls

[Phoenix Dark]

I forgot which Borian said it first, but I agree folks will miss Obama pretty quickly. We either get a Bush redux (if a republican wins) or Hillary being bogged down by endless investigations, no major legislation/agenda items, and more hawkish foreign policy (if a dem wins). Imagine what the perception of Obama might be without 2009/2010's accomplishments. That could be Hillary's entire term(s).

BTW married Bore, you better start prepping your wives to become conservative talking heads. Don't make the mistake I made. I could have been a black conservative author/tv analyst/etc. I could have been somebody. But in one more year there will be no more need for black conservatives, and like the Wii they'll be put in the closet forever. Concerned conservative white women will be the new fad bros. I can see it now...Mrs. Contra on Fox asking why any woman needs contraception...or Mrs. The Business arguing single mothers should be worried more about getting married than Medicaid expansion.

[Mandark]

He's got quite a handful of concrete accomplishments which can't be said of many post LBJ presidents.

Can't be said of many pre-LBJ presidents either.

Obama's winding up as one of the best presidents of all time for the same reason Jay Culter's one of the best Bears QB's of all time.

[Steve Contra]

He's got quite a handful of concrete accomplishments which can't be said of many post LBJ presidents.

Can't be said of many pre-LBJ presidents either.

Obama's winding up as one of the best presidents of all time for the same reason Jay Culter's one of the best Bears QB's of all time.

Does the Larry Bird rule apply if you're comparing a non-athlete to an athlete? 

[Phoenix Dark]

That's brilliant, Mandark. I'll have to localize it in order to use it here, so Matt Stafford instead of Cutler. 

comparing Obama to Cutler in Michigan would either get me daps or a beating.

[Shadow Mod]

I forgot which Borian said it first, but I agree folks will miss Obama pretty quickly. We either get a Bush redux (if a republican wins) or Hillary being bogged down by endless investigations, no major legislation/agenda items, and more hawkish foreign policy (if a dem wins). Imagine what the perception of Obama might be without 2009/2010's accomplishments. That could be Hillary's entire term(s).

BTW married Bore, you better start prepping your wives to become conservative talking heads. Don't make the mistake I made. I could have been a black conservative author/tv analyst/etc. I could have been somebody. But in one more year there will be no more need for black conservatives, and like the Wii they'll be put in the closet forever. Concerned conservative white women will be the new fad bros. I can see it now...Mrs. Contra on Fox asking why any woman needs contraception...or Mrs. The Business arguing single mothers should be worried more about getting married than Medicaid expansion.

Phyllis Schlafly is still alive and well.

[benjipwns]

 

[studyguy]

I feel like that topic title is really lagging behind the times. How can we have a Jeb! title when Jeb doesn't even exist?

[Madrun Badrun]

[Madrun Badrun]

Also what does it mean for an American president to know the American people intimately? 

[Joe Molotov]

Also what does it mean for an American president to know the American people intimately? 

Not be from Kenya.

[benjipwns]

Also what does it mean for an American president to know the American people intimately?

[Rufus]

By some accounts Obama has fucked the nation. That's pretty intimate if you ask me.