One thing regarding this time vs. 2008 in turnout is that Edwards was still in the race and pulling in 15-20% as a third option until Super Tuesday. (Well, really until after SC when his poll numbers tanked and he bolted rather than get thrashed.) Beat Hillary in Iowa too. National polls coming out of Iowa were Hillary 33%, Obama 30%, Edwards 20%.
There's not two candidates like Obama and Edwards (both of whom had decent money/campaign teams) challenging Hillary, nor teaming up on her in debates, there's a 70+ year old self-proclaimed Socialist who had until recently been running a threadbare campaign that was behind by like 40 points nationally.
Since I got the polls open, GOP race:
Rasmussen month before Iowa: Mike Huckabee 23%, Rudy Giuliani 20%, Mitt Romney 14%, Fred Thompson 10%, John McCain 8%, Ron Paul 6%
Rasmussen day before Iowa: John McCain 17%, Mike Huckabee 16%, Mitt Romney 16%, Rudy Giuliani 15%, Fred Thompson 12%, Ron Paul 7%
Rasmussen week after Iowa: Mike Huckabee 20%, John McCain 19%, Rudy Giuliani 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, Fred Thompson 11%, Ron Paul 3%
Rasmussen going into NH: John McCain 23%, Mike Huckabee 20%, Mitt Romney 13%, Fred Thompson 12%, Rudy Giuliani 11%, Ron Paul 3%
ABC going into NH: John McCain 28%, Mike Huckabee 20%, Mitt Romney 19%, Rudy Giuliani 15%, Fred Thompson 8%, Ron Paul 3%, Duncan Hunter 2%,
ABC after SC: John McCain 48%, Mitt Romney 24%, Mike Huckabee 16%, Ron Paul 7%, Rudy Giuliani 1%, Fred Thompson 1%
Rasmussen's last poll: John McCain 53%, Mike Huckabee 30%, Ron Paul 9%
Gallup's second to last: John McCain 61%, Mike Huckabee 23%, Ron Paul 4%, Alan Keyes 4%
Gallup's last GOP poll: John McCain 63%, Mike Huckabee 21%, Ron Paul 6%, Alan Keyes 2%
Even more fun:
Zogby December 2005:
GOP: John McCain 19%, Rudy Giuliani 17%, Condoleezza Rice 12%, Jeb Bush 4%, Newt Gingrich 4%, George Allen 3%, Bill Frist 3%, Mitt Romney 2%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Fred Thompson 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Sam Brownback 1%, Chuck Hagel 1%, George Pataki 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Haley Barbour 0%, Mark Sanford 0%
DEM: Hillary Clinton 26%, John Edwards 12%, Joe Lieberman 10%, John Kerry 9%, Barack Obama 7%, Joe Biden 3%, Wesley Clark 3%, Bill Richardson 3%, Evan Bayh 1%, Tim Kaine 1%, Mark Warner 1%
Gallup November 2006:
GOP: Rudy Giuliani 28%, John McCain 26%, Condoleezza Rice 13%, Newt Gingrich 7%, Mitt Romney 5%, Bill Frist 4%, George Allen 2%, George Pataki 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Chuck Hagel 1%, Sam Brownback 1%, Duncan Hunter 0%
DEM: Hillary Clinton 31%, Barack Obama 19%, John Edwards 10%, Al Gore 9%, John Kerry 7%, Joe Biden 4%, Wesley Clark 3%, Evan Bayh 2%, Bill Richardson 2%, Tom Daschle 1%, Christopher Dodd 1%, Russ Feingold 1%, Tom Vilsack 1%
IT'S A SCIENCE
