US Politics Thread |OT| THE DARKEST TIMELINE

[Human Snorenado]

Some of the reporting I've read says that some of those "Trump delegates" may be people who will only be predisposed to support him on the first ballot as they're bound to, and afterwards will support someone (Cruz? Ryan? the corpse of Ronald Reagan?) the party backs.

[Joe Molotov]

The Trump and Cruz delegates will have to agree to waive/change the RNC's anti-Ron Paul rule. No one's name can be placed in nomination unless they've won eight states in the primaries.

The RNC will just change the rules again and fuck Cruz and Trump out of the nomination the way they did Ron Paul.  :'(

[benjipwns]

A certain number of the delegates are merely local/state/county/etc. party bigwigs getting a ticket to attend the convention, and in return they just agree to vote for who they're bound to. So it is difficult to know how many of Trump's delegates are those and how many are actual backers. Especially since a lot of the delegates aren't even named yet, they're just in theory allocated.

[Mandark]

Some of the reporting I've read says that some of those "Trump delegates" may be people who will only be predisposed to support him on the first ballot as they're bound to, and afterwards will support someone (Cruz? Ryan? the corpse of Ronald Reagan?) the party backs.

Yeah, the delegate selection process apparently differs from state to state, and the Cruz people reportedly have their shit together way more than the Trump people.  So "bound" delegates are only bound on the first ballot, or first three, or whatever, and after that it matters who those people are.  Could be actual Trump supporters, or Cruz supporters, or GOP establishment people.

You'd need relatively few defectors to throw a convention from Trump to Cruz.  You'd need a TON of party operatives defecting from both camps to get to a third candidate, and you'd need control of the rules committee to boot.

[I'm a Puppy!]

So now Trump needs 57% of the remaining delegates. It might be smarter of him to just cut out and start the 3rd party run. He's not dumb enough to think he's going to have any chance if it goes to the convention.

[benjipwns]

An independent/third-party bid would just prove he's been a Democratic plant all along. 

[Mandark]

So now Trump needs 57% of the remaining delegates. It might be smarter of him to just cut out and start the 3rd party run. He's not dumb enough to think he's going to have any chance if it goes to the convention.

He should be preparing and making contingency plans, but he should absolutely go to the convention.

He'll almost definitely have the most votes and most delegates or any Republican candidate.  If he doesn't get the nomination, he can launch an independent campaign as the rightful winner who was denied by cheaters and losers, rather than the guy who just dropped out rather than fight.

[benjipwns]

I can't imagine why Trump would want to run with a loser independent campaign.

[I'm a Puppy!]

So now Trump needs 57% of the remaining delegates. It might be smarter of him to just cut out and start the 3rd party run. He's not dumb enough to think he's going to have any chance if it goes to the convention.

He should be preparing and making contingency plans, but he should absolutely go to the convention.

He'll almost definitely have the most votes and most delegates or any Republican candidate.  If he doesn't get the nomination, he can launch an independent campaign as the rightful winner who was denied by cheaters and losers, rather than the guy who just dropped out rather than fight.

Actually, I didn't take the drama created into account. This makes sense. You're right.

[Phoenix Dark]

I can't imagine why Trump would want to run with a loser independent campaign.

Pure spite to ensure the illegitimate GOP nominee loses?

[doctavius bonbon]

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/717549266894336000

Dumbshits, god damn.

[brawndolicious]

Trump would totally do an independent run......and even better I'd expect him to rerun in 2020 as an even more established "outsider".

[benjipwns]

Pure spite to ensure the illegitimate GOP nominee loses?

It'd be easier to just endorse them and say more and increasingly insane things than to mount an independent bid.

[Mandark]

Why assume Trump believes he would lose?

[benjipwns]

It may just be me, but his campaign doesn't seem like the type to already be gathering signatures and preparing to actually go to court to get on the ballot after the RNC.

Dropping now though does has the advantage of the Constitution Party's nomination and ballot lines.

[benjipwns]

July 21st: RNC ends
July 23rd: Washington
July 25th: Missouri
August 1st: Arkansas, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia
August 2nd: Massachusetts, Wisconsin (South Dakota has clear sore loser law)
August 10th: Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawai'i, New Hampshire, Ohio, D.C.
August 12th: California
August 15th: Utah
August 17th: Montana
August 18th: Alabama, Tennessee
August 19th: Iowa, Louisiana
August 23rd: Minnesota, New York
August 24th: Idaho
August 26th: Virginia
August 30th: Oregon, Wyoming
September 5th: North Dakota
September 9th: Arizona, Kentucky, Mississippi, Rhode Island

And he'll get challenged in about 95% of these states because they have sore loser laws (45/50 total states), in which despite existing precedents (mostly by the LaRouche people) apparently don't always mean anything if 2012 was any example.

In order to get on the ballot nationwide, it is estimated that an independent presidential candidate in 2016 would need to collect more than 880,000 signatures. California is expected to require independent candidates to collect 178,039 signatures, more than any other state. Tennessee is expected to require 275 signatures, fewer than any other state.

In some states, a prospective independent presidential candidate can more easily access the ballot by forming a new single-state minor party or affiliating with an existing one. If a candidate were to opt for this hybrid method of ballot access, the total number of required signatures would drop significantly. According to ballot access expert Richard Winger, it is easier for a candidate to run with a new single-state party than as an independent candidate in the following states: Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Maryland, Mississippi, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Vermont.

[benjipwns]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donald-trump-campaign-staff-disarray-221557

Since March, the [Trump] campaign has been laying off field staff en masse around the country and has dismantled much of what existed of its organizations in general-election battlegrounds, including Florida and Ohio.

Last month, the campaign laid off the leader of its data team, Matt Braynard, who did not train a successor. It elevated his No. 2, a data engineer with little prior high-level political strategy experience, and also shifted some of his team’s duties to a 2015 college graduate whose last job was an internship with the consumer products company Colgate-Palmolive. Some of the campaign’s data remains inaccessible.

At the moment, though, Trump’s team appears to be something of a patchwork group without much experience—partly because so many staffers are being fired.

Only four of 11 Iowa staffers continued on after Trump lost that state’s caucuses in February. More recently, most of Trump’s South Carolina, Florida and Ohio teams have not had their contracts renewed, according to a person familiar with the campaign, who said the lack of organization in Florida was putting Trump at a disadvantage in the delegate selection process.

Multiple staffers and advisors left the campaign last month in protest of the way its management was treating its staff, a source familiar with the departures told POLITICO.

“I believe that Donald Trump has the backbone to fix this country, but if changes are not made soon at the top I am fairly convinced that he will lose,” said one of the people who left the campaign. The person said morale among the campaign staff is sinking, attributing that to the layoffs, as well as Lewandowski’s profanity-laced outburst on campaign calls.

“I don’t think Mr. Trump knows what’s happening on his campaign,” the person said, adding “everyone is in astonishment of what’s going on. It’s almost like they’re sabotaging themselves.”

(Lewandowski said that “never once” has anyone on the campaign complained to him about his cursing or management style.)

There is also mounting evidence that the Trump campaign’s lack of organization is hurting him in the critical fight for delegates that is playing out at the state level. After winning Louisiana, Trump was surprised to learn that he failed to secure as many delegates there as Cruz and has threatened to sue.

And last weekend in Colorado, Trump was shut out as Ted Cruz secured all six of the delegates elected at two congressional district assemblies that were held a week ahead of the state GOP convention, where the delegation’s remaining 27 delegates will be elected Saturday.

At the assembly in Denver, Trump seemed to have as many or more supporters show up than Cruz. But they didn’t have a plan. The Cruz campaign, meanwhile, encouraged its supporters to unite behind a slate of delegates, enabling the Texas senator to win all three delegate slots from the district (the same situation played out later Saturday afternoon at the other assembly in Aurora).

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/sanders-reshapes-obamas-2016-plans-221560

Aides had expected the primary race to be wrapping up by this point, according to White House sources, and for Obama to be gearing up for a series of big unity rallies to urge Sanders supporters to get excited about Hillary Clinton.

Instead, Sanders is expected to win Wisconsin on Tuesday, and has the money and support to keep going as long as he wants and no Democratic Party loyalty or elder statesman to urge him to step back. That’s forcing the White House to recalibrate its political plans, delaying the opportunity for Obama to hit the campaign trail and capitalize on public approval levels unseen since his re-election campaign.

“At the appropriate time, the president will play a role,” said one person familiar with the thinking. “Obviously we couldn’t predict exactly when that would be. We still can’t predict that right now.”

White House aides are eager for the president to get out and show off what he can do on the trail. But Obama, who wasn’t eager to turn over attention to the next Democratic nominee and settle in to a lame duck glide path, isn’t exactly complaining about the delay.

“It’s lengthening the period of time when he can be president,” the person familiar with the Obama thinking explained. “There is an unplanned benefit.”

[Mandark]

Okay, but will Trump see that as an insurmountable obstacle, and what's he going to hear from his chosen advisers?

[benjipwns]

He may balk at actually having to spend his own money.

[Dennis]

It is fascinating to see how many Democrats despise Hillary Clinton and vote for Sanders even though he can't win.

[Mupepe]

It is fascinating to see how many Democrats despise Hillary Clinton and vote for Sanders even though he can't win.

Why is that fascinating in a primary?  It's not as if they're writing him in for the GE. 

[benjipwns]

Why is that fascinating in a primary?  It's not as if they're writing him in for the GE.

Right on, they're voting Trump.

  Make America Great Again.

[benjipwns]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/06/us/politics/democratic-primary-results.html

the pic in this article of hillary holding that baby

DON'T LET HER EAT ME

secret service guy doesn't seem too pleased about it either:

[Steve Contra]

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/717549266894336000

Dumbshits, god damn.

POLITICAL REVOLUTIONARIES.

[Am_I_Anonymous]

Why assume Trump believes he would lose?

It's pretty well known now he never expected to be in it this long.

[Human Snorenado]

Just at the mere hint that Paul Ryan might be angling to step in as a candidate at the convention, Breitbart this week has run stories interviewing someone whose kid was killed by an illegal immigrant to paint Ryan as soft on immigration, another that painted him as soft on trade, and most bizarre of all, alleged that "as a result of unbridled Muslim migration into the United States, more than 2,100 U.S. girls in Wisconsin — the state represented by Ryan — are at-risk of suffering the anti-Western practice Female Genital Mutilation, according to the Population Reference Bureau (PRB)."

And it's only April, and Ryan has repeatedly denied wanting the nomination.

The fuckery that is coming, brehs.

[I'm a Puppy!]

When Paul Ryan isn't conservative enough for you

[Joe Molotov]

The fuckery when it turns out to be Mitt Romney 3.0 riding to the rescue.

[ToxicAdam]

Herman Cain is still available and taking phone calls. Especially if she is an old lady friend.

[james]

A certain number of the delegates are merely local/state/county/etc. party bigwigs getting a ticket to attend the convention, and in return they just agree to vote for who they're bound to. So it is difficult to know how many of Trump's delegates are those and how many are actual backers. Especially since a lot of the delegates aren't even named yet, they're just in theory allocated.

You know what would be cool?

One person, one vote.

IT'S NOT THAT FUCKING HARD WHY DOES AMERICA HATE DEMOCRACY

[Steve Contra]

It's a party primary.  Why don't people get that?

Also if it was popular vote Bernie would have dropped out of the primary a while ago.  Win Wyoming and claim it's equal to Florida brehs.

[Tasty]

It's a party primary.  Why don't people get that?

Also if it was popular vote Bernie would have dropped out of the primary a while ago.  Win Wyoming and claim it's equal to Florida brehs.

BUT MUH MICHIGAN

[Steve Contra]

I think what people are missing right now is that all the states Bernie has won could comfortably fit into the biggest three that Hillary has won with room for a couple more cold, white states.

[CatsCatsCats]

Alaska is pretty big, learn your geography

[Mandark]

In 20 years, how crazy is this going to look to someone who didn't live through it?

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Trump won't get the Republican nomination.  It doesn't matter if he gets a majority of the delegates, they will find a way to stop him from being the nominee.  Might be through some goofy interpretation of an old rule that doesn't make any sense to anyone, they will find any means necessary to screw him over.  In the end, it largely comes down to "their party, their rules and they can do whatever they want."

At this point, I think that the GOP would rather be the Permanent Opposition Party than anything else.  It's a lot easier than being responsible for something.

[Joe Molotov]

In 20 years, how crazy is this going to look to someone who didn't live through it?

1) a plutocrat derailing the preferred party of plutocrats for the fuckery

2) a self-described socialist who believes in reviving manufacturing jobs in america

3) a centre-left imperialist cuckquean under investigation by the FBI being the best option

4) people pretending to give a shit about ted cruz


(Image removed from quote.)


i hope we'll get a movie.

Nah, it'll be one of the stories we tell around the campfire when the Younglings ask about the Before Times. 

[Madrun Badrun]

i hope we'll get a movie.

and if we are lucky, it wont be a oliver stone one

[I'm a Puppy!]

 

[Tasty]

3) a centre-left imperialist cuckquean under investigation by the FBI being the best option

[doctavius bonbon]

should have cracked his bald egghead against the cash register, t b h

[Tasty]

https://twitter.com/nancycordes/status/717824134655377408

Bernie, wat are you doin man

[Tasty]

http://qz.com/586884/bernie-sanders-says-he-can-break-up-the-banks-in-a-year-is-that-even-possible/

It seems highly unlikely that the existing Federal Reserve board will decide to use their power to break up the banks simply because a newly-elected president Sanders instructs them to do so. Even if he were able to secure their assent, he would need also need to appoint a passel of new regulators to okay their action, with the assent of a Senate that will likely be outright hostile to Sanders’ plans. If he is serious about using the Fed to break up the banks, he will need to first go through a knock-down, drag-out fight to appoint a Fed board willing to back his plan.

[I'm a Puppy!]

But we do need to break up the big banks.

[Phoenix Dark]

My favorite Bernie ducktale is still his insistence that he can make Paul Ryan raise taxes by having college kids protest outside his office building until he caves.

Sanders' plans are Walter Sobchak tier.

[Trent Dole]

https://twitter.com/nancycordes/status/717824134655377408

Bernie, wat are you doin man

Speaking the truth?
Thing about his whole 'banks out of control rarrgh' bit is that, well, he voted FOR the stuff that Hillary's husband signed that led to the banking collapse in the first place! Hilldog can't really hammer him about voting for something that her husband signed off on so he ends up getting a bit of a pass for it but learning of that definitely curbed my enthusiasm for the dude a bit. Still the least shitty option imo though.

[Tasty]

But we do need to break up the big banks.

It's nice to want things.

Personally, I probably wouldn't put the big banks in a top 10 list of this country's problems, and that's partly where my motivation to side with Hillary over Bernie comes from.

[Mandark]

But we do need to break up the big banks.

Do we, though?

I'd really like to read the best case for why a financial system with smaller institutions would be immune (or at least much less susceptible) to crisis.

[Rufus]

But we do need to break up the big banks.

Do we, though?

I'd really like to read the best case for why a financial system with smaller institutions would be immune (or at least much less susceptible) to crisis.

Presumably working backwards from "too big to fail". But it's not like a bunch of smaller banks can't fail all at once, which ends up having the same consequences, no?

[Samson Manhug]

Hillary might be Andrex’s queen, but Bernie is my Khaleesi.

[Mandark]

I woulda gone Ned Stark for Bernie.  Northerner who commands fierce loyalty from his followers, but whose rigid moral code and inability to cope with realpolitik gets him killed.

You could talk me into either Rubio or Jeb as Renly.

Martin O'Malley is any minor character left out of the TV version.

At this point Christie is Reek, no?

[james]

I need predict-it advice.

I bought Bernie-No and Hillary-Yes like 3 months ago.

ITS STILL THE SAME PRICE HOW IS THAT EVEN

I dont know what to do about Trump-yes. I bought at 30, it went up to like 90, now its at 45. I assume itll go up again once he cleans up shop in the next five states.

Do I double down?

[james]

Hm, is it just me or is this one easy money?
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2437/Will-any-candidate-win-more-than-50-of-the-NY-GOP-primary-vote#data

Also bought yes for Trump in PA. Central PA is like Trump HQ

[Tasty]

Lena Headey is a way better actress than "blinks when shooting a gun Sarah Connors" Emilia Clarke, so I'm fine with that tbh.

Also Lena Headey never fucked the creator of Family Guy.

[CatsCatsCats]

Wait, how is gambling on politics legal? This sounds fun

[james]

Wait, how is gambling on politics legal? This sounds fun

Some educational loophole

[Phoenix Dark]

Wait, doesn't Dany have more support among black and brown people than anyone? 

[Tasty]

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-democratic-race-takes-nastier-turn-n552321

"Now the other day, I think, Secretary Clinton appeared to be getting a little bit nervous, and she has been saying lately that she thinks that I am, quote-unquote not qualified to be president. Well let me just say in response, to Secretary Clinton, I don't believe that she is qualified if she is… through her Super PAC, taking tens of millions of dollars in special interest funds."

But there are two important points to make in this dispute. One, Clinton never uttered the words "unqualified," as Sanders charged last night. In fact, she dodged the question. Here's what she said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" yesterday:


SCARBOROUGH: But do you think he is qualified? And do you think he is able to deliver on the things he is promising to all these Democratic voters?

CLINTON: Well, let me put it this way, Joe. I think that what he has been saying about the core issue in his whole campaign doesn't seem to be rooted in an understanding of either the law or the practical ways you get something done. And I will leave it to voters to decide who of us can do the job that the country needs, who can do all aspects of the job, both on the economic domestic issues and on national security and foreign policy.


And two, some of the things that he said makes Clinton unqualified to be president -- having a Super PAC, raising money from Wall Street, supporting trade agreements -- would also disqualify President Obama. There is no doubt that Sanders and his campaign have been facing extra scrutiny and heat, even after their big win in Wisconsin. But saying in response that Clinton is unqualified (for the same things that about 95% of Democratic politicians do) seems akin to a George Constanza moment when you realize that the insult you intended doesn't go over that well.

Bernie Sanders is literally turning senile right before our eyes and straight up lying about what other candidates have said. Sad.

[tiesto]

Lena Headey is a way better actress than "blinks when shooting a gun Sarah Connors" Emilia Clarke, so I'm fine with that tbh.

Also Lena Headey never fucked the creator of Family Guy.

I'll admit not knowing who she was until the FF15 unveiling last week.



Anyways, Trump gave a speech right across the street from where I used to work. I'd have loved to stop by and point and laugh if I still worked nearby.

[Tasty]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/718067806814609414

Beep beep beep

Watch out, the Sanders truck is backing up.