That's interesting cuz I think he has the most chance.
I try to think about how people looked at Obama at this point in the race. People were like oh he seems nice, but it's not his time yet, or some shit.
The only thing that's surprised me so far in the race is how Biden is holding steady in the national polls. He's dropped in Iowa though, I think.
Primary
voters
are
not
general
election
voters
As much as I like candidates like Tulsi, Yang and even Buttigieg more than the regulars there's no chance they'll win the primaries.
Primary voters are party members and those that show up to vote for the local library board not people who just vote for a President once every 4 years.
Which is why in some cases Sanders' big crowds got beaten by Hillary's book clubs because the students weren't registered party members nor would they show up to vote.
In fact, the first line of attack the GOP picked against Trump was that he wasn't 'conservative' enough or a 'real conservative'.
The primary vote of 4 or 5 candidates scoring ~20% of the vote was simply a reflection of the division within the GOP at that time and people even doubted the Trump supporters were registered party members.
Trump was lucky that Romney lost because it made people weary of the establishment pick and that's how he nuked Jeb within weeks. Along with of course taking over the Tea Party base that Palin, Bachmann and others had been slowly building up.
The only compelling argument Trump ever had for Republicans is that you needed someone who could beat Hillary Clinton and he was the only one rich and powerful enough to go against the Clinton political machine.
The Democrat anti-establishment candidates aren't so 'lucky' as Trump was in 2016.
Because most still think Trump won because of Russian interference not because Hillary ran a terrible campaign and some Obama voters rather had literally anyone else.
And that's how the polls make sense, because Biden/Warren are well known party members and the progressive wing will side with Sanders as long as he's in the race.
However, the pool of progressive voters will not be big enough to offset the loyal party support someone like Biden gets. I don't think Sanders can close the gap just as he couldn't do it in 2016.
And again, this is also why Obama is saying he doesn't want Sanders to be the nominee. He knows the Democrats can't afford to lose their more liberal/moderate wing to Trump as Hillary partly did in 2016.
The left has no where else to go if Sanders loses another primary. What are they going to do? Vote Trump instead?
