US Politics Thread |OT| SAD TRUMP

[BikeJesus]

I'm going to bet that the Republicans hold both the House and Senate, based solely on 2016 polling versus actual results. Also, those fucking rallies and the insane turnouts that get zero press.

[kingv]

Lemme throw this out there: the dude is almost certainly going to do better than every other Democratic candidate for senate or governor in Texas has done for close to three decades and has generated enough enthusiasm that people are literally sick of his supporters.

It might be possible he's run an okay campaign.

I think people saying “oh he should have run as 1992 Bill Clinton are out of their minds”

The reason he is getting the enthusiasm he is getting is because he’s running the campaign he’s running. IMO he does even worse as “republican-lite”

[nachobro]

in new mexico, early voting is much less hassle than voting on election day. you can go to any voting location, there's pretty much no lines, plus the polling hours are longer and it's open on weekends. that's why i voted early.

[Mandark]

Has anyone ever considered that early voting might not necessarily mean people are more fired up to vote or that more people are going to turn out, but that people who normally vote  are just trying to get that shit out of the way?

Yeah, vote nerds call it "cannibalizing" the election day turnout. But there are a bunch of other signs (individual donations, self-reported voting intent, high turnout in special elections and last year in VA) that all point to a very high turnout for a midterm election.

[TakingBackSunday]

I have a feeling Kemp is going to win Georgia based purely on machines "malfunctioning."

[Mandark]

https://twitter.com/tomreganWSB/status/1059838200699674624

[Madrun Badrun]

Been preparing myself mentally all week to be disappointed by you Americans again. 

[Mupepe]

Lemme throw this out there: the dude is almost certainly going to do better than every other Democratic candidate for senate or governor in Texas has done for close to three decades and has generated enough enthusiasm that people are literally sick of his supporters.

It might be possible he's run an okay campaign.

He has ran an okay campaign.  I think he could have ran a great one by being a bit more pragmatic and stayed the course after the primaries.   Instead he actually seemed to pivot left. Sadler spent about $400k for his entire campaign and got about 41%.  Beto has raised something like $70 million dollars and will probably end up with a few percentage points more.  That seems like a terrible ROI.  And his supporters are annoying because so many are still delusional.  I try to talk to my friends and they think I'm crazy because I think Beto is going to lose.  They're not annoying because they like him and I do give him props for being charismatic. 

[stufte]

Fuck this having an important election on my birthday bullshit. It's going to make the entire day miserable.

[Madrun Badrun]

Happy election day dude!

[stufte]

At least Colorado has early voting via mail-in ballots. I had that shit handled weeks ago.

[Nintex]

Last year in Virginia the total vote for the Dem candidates beat the Republican side by almost 10 percentage points, they picked up 15 additional seats, yet wound up on the wrong side of a 51-49 split after the decisive seat, ruled a tie after a recount, was settled in the Republican's favor by a literal coin toss.

So I'm basically bracing myself for that to happen on a national level tomorrow.

Can you write that out in the form of a two page dialogue between Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell? It might convince Nintex to take your bet.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Mitch: "Hello Mr. President"

Donald: "Hi Mitch what's that you're holding?"

Mitch: "That's how we decide elections Donald, with this lucky coin"

Donald: "Coins? I don't do coins. You never know where coins have been. Imagine if like an ugly person like a 3 or a 4 had that coin in her pocket and now you're holding it."

Mitch: "You see Donald, that's the great thing when you are in control of government. Heads we win, tails we lose.... but we can't lose"

Donald: "How can you not lose? You might get a disease from the coin and die. We should ban coins. I talked about it with Mnuchin the other day he liked the idea a lot. He also hates coins, he said we should replace them with Legos like that movie he's made. Have you seen his movies? Those are great fun. He's great. In fact he might even get a nice licensing deal when we replace the coins."

Mitch: "But Donald, Every coin minted under a Republican treasury is balanced in such a way that it always lands on heads"

Mitch: "Under the presidency of George Bush we minted so many coins that we would have a surplus of coins for decades to come. We will never run out of coins that land on heads and we always bet on heads."

Donald: "Why don't the Democrats bet on heads?"

Mitch: "Simple Donald, we've used historical figures with questionable racial histories. Slave owners, explorers, wartime presidents and the like. A Democrat is never going to bet on Honest Abe"

Mitch: "We then introduced a little known bill on the first day of your presidency that replaced all election toss-up coins with coins minted after 2002."

Mitch: "Stalin famously said, 'It doesn't matter who votes it matters who counts the votes'. I say it doesn't matter who bets it matters who mints the coins."

Donald: "I like that Mitch, I signed a lot to be honest and I will sign more if we win. Guess I'll tell Mnuchin we're not going to do LEGOs then. Shame, would be fun if you had like a building set in your wallet"

Mitch: "We know Donald... we know."

[close]

Good luck guys. Enjoy voting and your day of democracy. Whoever loses we win.

[stufte]

Fuck this having an important election on my birthday bullshit. It's going to make the entire day miserable.

I've got you beat. I know someone who scheduled their gay wedding on the 2016 election day because they were that excited for Hillary to win.

oof.

[Joe Molotov]

why is there not a national movement to abolish the Senate

Because then Ted Cruz would just be out in the wild, uncontained, free to kill again.

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1059868722972778498

Some of these are wild. At the end of the day George Bush will be President Again.

Wait

[Himu]

lmao at new york democrats throwing around ideas,"why don't we try to emulate China's score system and screen peoples social media before a gun purchase?"

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ny-gun-buyers-should-have-social-media-screened-pols-say

Trump, Bloomberg, we can go on but New York politicians truly are terrible. First, second, fifth, ninth amendments? What's that? Why almost every NY politician end up being an authoritarian? Is it something in the water over there?

[TakingBackSunday]

Shut the fuck up

[CatsCatsCats]

So much for the tolerant left

[Himu]

Shut the fuck up

No.

[Himu]

oh WOW at my local Beto office I saw this picture on the wall



really makes you vote

[Mandark]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1059899479401418752


With the caveat that plenty of Dems would justify procedural bullshit if they thought it would benefit them, it's kind of wild how comfortable the GOP is getting about openly making it harder for (certain) people to vote.

[Brehvolution]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/



Rasmussen 

I'm a little surprised with Gillum and Whitmer numbers tbh.

[Himu]

lmao at new york democrats throwing around ideas,"why don't we try to emulate China's score system and screen peoples social media before a gun purchase?"

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/ny-gun-buyers-should-have-social-media-screened-pols-say

This is just stupidly unreasonable;  how do you even "give authorities a years worth of search history"?

And they are claiming if your profiles are private, you'd have to make them available.. but haven't worked out how that would work lol

Just a laughable law with maybe a tiny bit of good logic behind it;  if someone is making vague threats on the internet it would be nice if we could stop them from buying a gun.  That's about the extent of it; how that turns into this completely unreasonable law suggestion is beyond me.

But we have to do something, riotous!

Democrats dip their toes in this insanity quite often, California being a very great example. Yet they're confounded that certain people don't like them. I wonder why.

[HaughtyFrank]

Voting in the USA seems fun

https://imgur.com/ufzTDfH

[CatsCatsCats]

Rest of the country really needs to adopt what we got in Oregon

[nachobro]

NM ballots are basically just a scantron sheet and you fill in the bubbles. seems to work fine.

[CatsCatsCats]

Yeah, OR, too. But we can mail em in or drop em off at tons of convenient locations

[Nintex]

Voting in the USA seems fun

https://imgur.com/ufzTDfH

I watched a video yesterday that explained the process in a county in New York.

1. Take 2 page paper ballot and vote for your candidates (NOTE: only vote for one candidate for each race, sidenote: races might cover multiple lines that are not at all aligned well)
2. Tear it in 2 (because the 2 page ballot doesn't fit into the machine... wait machine?)
3. Enter the ballot into the voting machine
4. Confirm and register your vote
5. Take a dumb 'I voted!' sticker and tell your friends

And people thought the Russians would waste their time trying to hack this shit. 

[nachobro]

Yeah, OR, too. But we can mail em in or drop em off at tons of convenient locations

that's nice. here you have to apply for a mail in ballot a while before the actual election in order to get it to your house on time, but they make early in-person voting extremely easy so that's good enough for me.

[Cauliflower Of Love]

Someone link me to an realtime needle with probabilities!

[Himu]

Do all states allow mail in ballots? If they have absentee ballots, I don’t see why they don’t all do mail ins.

[Mandark]

Someone link me to an realtime needle with probabilities!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html

oh yeah

[Nintex]

Interesting to see that in Florida results (or at least numbers of returned ballots) are public. Gives a an interesting look at the turn-out.
Currently the GOP is even outpacing their 2016 margins in some deep red counties

https://twitter.com/ImpsDelights/status/1059883636231680001

[Cauliflower Of Love]

Someone link me to an realtime needle with probabilities!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html

oh yeah

[Nintex]

First exit poll

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1059931266169143296

[TakingBackSunday]

stop paying attention to exit polls

[Himu]

First exit poll

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1059931266169143296

Who cares.

Even Mr. "I'm not stepping in Wisconsin" agrees.

https://twitter.com/RobbyMook/status/1059930096528711683

[Great Rumbler]

The actual results will be available in a few hours anyway.

[Mandark]

Indiana and Kentucky polls close an hour before any other states. Kentucky-6 is a competitive district but went for both Romney and Trump. So probably the Republican will win that race and there won't be any other House results for an hour and everyone will freak out.

[Occam]

I oppose Trump but pretty much voted straight R

So you don't oppose Trump.

[CatsCatsCats]

Indiana and Kentucky polls close an hour before any other states. Kentucky-6 is a competitive district but went for both Romney and Trump. So probably the Republican will win that race and there won't be any other House results for an hour and everyone will freak out.

Sounds like a good time to ride the pump and dump on predictit 🤔

[nachobro]

i was real close to voting gary johnson for senate cause it'd be hilarious but he won't win anyway so i wouldn't have a chance to enjoy the humor of it.

there was another libertarian (lloyd princeton) i was tempted to for vote cause his entire campaign strategy was just posting up pieces of plywood around the city with his name poorly spray painted on them.

basically what i'm saying is i let benji down this election and i apologize.

[chronovore]

I oppose Trump but pretty much voted straight R

So you don't oppose Trump.

Username checks out.

[Himu]

I mean hell, I oppose Trump but pretty much voted straight R

It depends on the Republican.

For example I voted Crenshaw in the runoff, but ever since he has shown very problematic views on immigration. He was strong on it before, but when it was shown children were separated from parents - something I disagree with - he went to bat for Trump. In my research, even those R's who say they're not Trumpists still support some of his policies. So you're not entirely opposing Trump if you vote for say, Ted Cruz, whom Trump endorsed fully.

State and Federal office is entirely different too. The congressmen (both houses) tend to placate to Trump's sensibilities. Some state guys like Hager keep their head down and just do their jobs. Those guys and gals who just do state jobs that make the state function are worth voting for in my opinion even if they're R as long as they're not corrupt (Sid Miller) or incompetent (George Bush).

Once you get to actual power (governor, lt governor, senators, congressmen) I start to have more standards. I voted D for all of those offices and left a blank for governor because Lupe and Abbot are both bad.

I think you did yourself and the state a disservice by doing straight ticket R. Take Nelson and Suazo.

Bush has been so bad at his job that the old Land Commissioner incumbent is telling people to vote Suazo.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/Patterson-Why-Republicans-are-endorsing-a-13246388.php

Paxton is utterly corrupt and deserves outing, and when you consider Nelson's credentials it's not even close.

https://www.statesman.com/news/20180806/ken-paxtons-indictments-now-3-years-old-are-a-campaign-issue

And you voted for...Sid Miller. Really?

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Here-s-why-Texas-Agriculture-Commissioner-Sid-13321459.php

Straight R? WHY?

I mean....

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/20/donald-trump-texas-republicans-endorsing-democrats/

Have you been paying attention to the corruption within state Republicans and many R's flat out endorsing D's this election? Why did you vote straight ticket? I'm really curious.

[nachobro]

on the plus side i voted to not retain any judges cause fuck the law

[nachobro]

man i fucked up, i should have voted for lloyd. he's out here looking like a bootleg daniel tosh and posing with this pretentious hobo (note: not THE Pretentious Hobo) and i couldn't even toss him a pity vote.

[Himu]

At least you voted against Bush but why vote for Sid Miller?

[nachobro]

i love that every google result for this dude comes up related to design and fashion and new york style whatever, but he was running on being a tough and rugged new mexico born rancher (not actually born in new mexico and has never been to a ranch)

just the contrast between the above pic and his campaign ad picture

[Himu]

Man, I'd love to retire to a ranch in Texas or New Mexico. A husband or wife, a cat, a  rocking chair, a few guns, and people to deal with my horses.

[nachobro]

rural new mexico sucks but if you want to be left alone, it's a good place to get exactly that.

[Himu]

Jaydub and Benji

https://qz.com/1443787/a-libertarian-think-tank-just-gave-up-on-libertarianism/

Maybe there's hope for a libertarian left but would Jaydub vote for them? 

[naff]

maybe if jaydubya wasn't such a fuckwit his wife would bang him every now and again.

[Himu]

"Libertarian left" means they are on the left, which means they more than likely oppose free markets and promote socialist redistribution schemes, which means they don't support essential liberties.

Unless they square that circle by saying they only want to choose a communal life for themselves and encourage others to join them voluntarily, they're completely untenable.

Think tank man says, "abandon ideology."  That's how you get people like Hillary or Trump.  No thanks.

What are your thoughts on the civil rights act? Is it a conventional case against liberty or a warranted attempt to balance injustice and correct wrongs done to a group that were treated as second class citizens? Many libertarians show disapproval of the civil rights act because businesses have the liberty to deny people sale. But what if you believe in liberty but think that people shouldn't be harmed in the process? Where do you draw the line?

[Himu]

Me?

[Himu]

Me?

Your sin is liking FF8 and I have given you a mountain of shit for this grievous error over the years.

This is decidedly not shovel-worthy.

(Or murder-in-the-digital-realm-worthy.)

But...FF8 has good music and dungeons!

*heavy breathing* *moans* FFVIII

[TakingBackSunday]

Indiana and Kentucky polls close an hour before any other states. Kentucky-6 is a competitive district but went for both Romney and Trump. So probably the Republican will win that race and there won't be any other House results for an hour and everyone will freak out.

ERA is freaking out over Indiana right now, so this post was 100% accurate

[brawndolicious]

At least you voted against Bush but why vote for Sid Miller?

What libertarian nerd isn't a fan of his games?

[Himu]

[recursivelyenumerable]

Someone link me to an realtime needle with probabilities!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html

oh yeah

Starting position is more comfortable

[jakefromstatefarm]

JD, I’ve been wanting to check your pulse on this: can markets constrain individual liberties similarly to how states can? Is there some a priori reason why they can’t, or, if not, why are we still not allowed to intervene in their functioning if/when they do? Also: what is liberty, why does it inhere in individuals (as opposed to, say, corporate entities, guilds, estates, castes, families, whatever) and why is it the fundamental political principle (as opposed to the other two guiding lights of liberalism, equality and fraternity)?