US Politics Thread |OT| SAD TRUMP

[Himu]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/09/this-is-not-what-pro-kavanaugh-electoral-backlash-looks-like/?utm_term=.5e0897e080a9

[Himu]

Looking towards the forecast for mid-terms

https://www.ft.com/content/9d80f3e8-ca37-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956

[Himu]

Tay tay

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-really-could-lose-that-tennessee-senate-seat/

House and senate set to shift

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-crazy-is-it-that-the-senate-and-house-might-move-in-opposite-directions-this-year/

[team filler]

[Kara]

Tay tay

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-really-could-lose-that-tennessee-senate-seat/

House and senate set to shift

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-crazy-is-it-that-the-senate-and-house-might-move-in-opposite-directions-this-year/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast-analysis

[Himu]

While true, it seems baseless to completely write off polling because that one time things didn’t work.

[Trent Dole]

https://twitter.com/IGD_News/status/1049725445065887747

[Kara]

While true, it seems baseless to completely write off polling because that one time things didn’t work.

If I can't cheap shot 538 then I want off this heteronormative wasteland called Earth.

[Maiden Voyage]

I remember Poligaf losing their shit because 538 had Trump with a 30% chance of winning. They felt that was too high and that Nate Silver was a hack. Oh, memories.

[Optimus]

I'm a bit surprised FDR would be a sacred cow for you.

I'm surprised at your surprise, why wouldn't I like FDR?

[curly]

I remember Poligaf losing their shit because 538 had Trump with a 30% chance of winning. They felt that was too high and that Nate Silver was a hack. Oh, memories.

Imo Silver gets too much shit for 2016. Trump had a distinct shot of winning under his model, unlike others like Sam Wang who gave him no chance (and had to eat a bug on TV for his errors).

[Himu]

Yeah wasn’t Nate the one with the highest odds for trump? Also 30% doesn’t mean 0%. IDGI.

[curly]

(Image removed from quote.)

https://twitter.com/Ocasio2018/status/1041007083058024449

slay me queen 

[Himu]

Say no to socialism, Alexandria!!!

[Mandark]

I'm a bit surprised FDR would be a sacred cow for you.

I'm surprised at your surprise, why wouldn't I like FDR?

Cause you identify as a socialist and are typically very critical of liberal Democrats who seek to accommodate business interests in their policymaking.

[Kara]

AOCCCP

[Mandark]

Yeah wasn’t Nate the one with the highest odds for trump? Also 30% doesn’t mean 0%. IDGI.

Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump’s Direction by Ryan Grim.

[Kara]

I'm a bit surprised FDR would be a sacred cow for you.

I'm surprised at your surprise, why wouldn't I like FDR?

Cause you identify as a socialist and are typically very critical of liberal Democrats who seek to accommodate business interests in their policymaking.

FACT CHECK: Browderism is still socialism.

[kingv]

Yeah wasn’t Nate the one with the highest odds for trump? Also 30% doesn’t mean 0%. IDGI.

Nate did have highest odds for Trump.

I actually read an interview with him today and he talked about 2016 and said he felt pretty good about it. IMO, he SHOULD. 30% is a non-zero chance, it's basically like "If you get a few lucky breaks you win" and that's basically what happened.

edit: AOC is almost as hot as Huma Abedin. I'd text both of them some dick pics.

[benjipwns]

Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump’s Direction by Ryan Grim.

heh, i actually came back across this separately last week and had a good sensible chuckle

my favorite smoking gun accusation of that period was that Nate Silver was a "secret" libertarian like Glenn Greenwald and that's why he was trying to steal the election for Trump by warning that he had a chance

there's also an article from Silver just before the election where he points out the chances of a electoral/popular vote split were increasing because Clinton was running up the relative score in safe states of both parties, while potentially underperforming significantly vs. Obama in the Rust Belt/Midwest Swing States that he really got shit on for because BLUE WALL

edit: October 31st, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/

Thus, as of early Monday evening, our polls-only model gave Hillary Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning the popular vote but just a 75 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. There’s roughly a 10 percent chance of Trump’s winning the White House while losing the popular vote, in other words.

As an illustration of this, we can compare Clinton’s current margins in our polls-only forecast against President Obama’s performance in 2012. Clinton — despite Trump’s recent improvement in the polls — leads by 4.7 percentage points in the national popular vote, a wider margin than Obama’s 3.9-point victory over Mitt Romney in 2012.

But Clinton is performing worse than Obama in 10 of the 12 states that were generally considered swing states in 2012. In some cases, such as Florida and Pennsylvania, the difference is negligible. She’s underperforming Obama substantially, however, in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Nevada and to a somewhat lesser extent in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

So how is Clinton doing better in the popular vote overall, despite failing to match Obama’s performance in most of these swing states? A lot of it is her strong performance in red states, or at least red states where a significant number of Romney voters were whites with college degrees. Thus, Clinton is putting states such as Arizona into play and — although she’s unlikely to win them — states such as Texas, Georgia and even Utah are liable to be much closer than we’re used to. Texas, in particular, can cause a potential Electoral College-popular vote skew because of its large and growing population. If the Democrat goes from losing Texas by 15 percentage points to losing it by 5 points instead, that produces a net gain of about 0.6 or 0.7 percentage points of the popular vote — larger than the margin by which Al Gore beat George W. Bush in the popular vote in 2000 — without changing the tally in the Electoral College.

the year we turn Utah blue!

[shosta]

I remember Poligaf losing their shit because 538 had Trump with a 30% chance of winning. They felt that was too high and that Nate Silver was a hack. Oh, memories.

Haha. I distinctly remember this, too.

[benjipwns]

Silver only gave Romney a 9% chance on election day. The state math didn't work, that was partly why the Romney people were shocked, they hadn't done the EV math scenarios off a newer map they assumed the 2004 map was the baseline for some reason IIRC, when in reality they needed to nearly run the table on swing states like Trump wound up doing. (And the GOP did for the Senate and Governors in 2014.)

edit: Romney would have just squeaked past with 272 EV's if he won the 2004 W. states. But he lost all four of Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Iowa. (Trump won all but Virginia.)

[shosta]

love me some karl rove meltdown

[benjipwns]

AOC is like the least threatening Socialist, from New York, to ever have a shot at a House seat.

To revive an insult from the 1970s House membership, they could call her the skinny, hatless, Bella Abzug.

[benjipwns]

That pro-Hun collaborationist traitor pro-war defencist betrayer Meyer London was the only one in the House to hate America enough to vote against the Sedition Act!

[Kara]

AOC is like the least threatening Socialist, from New York, to ever have a shot at a House seat.

FACT CHECK: She is not a member of a socialist political party.

[Mandark]

FACT CHECK: Browderism is still socialism.

AOC is like the least threatening Socialist, from New York, to ever have a shot at a House seat.

FACT CHECK: She is not a member of a socialist political party.

Ever since we found out benji was a Marxist I've been so confused...

[benjipwns]

I guess I just assumed that with the multiple ballot lines in New York...

[benjipwns]

Speaking of me being a Marxist and stupidity in PoliGAF, I remember when a prominent PoliGAFer of the pre-Trump period was arguing that the Communist Manifesto demanded the outlawing of marriage and families or something like that. And I had to call in the big guns, and it was totally ineffective.

[Mandark]

BAD BENJI

[Kara]

Ever since we found out benji was a Marxist I've been so confused...

The second fact check is an echo of something benji once did to Dmitri Dmitriyevich about libertarians / Libertarians. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.

The first fact check is a reference to a period where the Communist Party USA was somewhat similar to the present day Democratic Socialists of America, albeit with fewer FBI agents and the use of democratic centralism. (If you belong to an organization run with democratic centralism you will be expelled from DSA by the letter of its laws.) Earl Browder was very keen on FDR, not unlike Optimus.

Speaking of me being a Marxist and stupidity in PoliGAF, I remember when a prominent PoliGAFer of the pre-Trump period was arguing that the Communist Manifesto demanded the outlawing of marriage and families or something like that. And I had to call in the big guns, and it was totally ineffective.

APKmetsfan was a gem.

[Mandark]

2008 was wild.

[benjipwns]

Earl Browder was just too trusting and optimistic.

[benjipwns]

[benjipwns]

woah if true

[team filler]

https://theintercept.com/2018/10/09/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court-bush-administration/

Obama’s Resistance to Investigating the Bush Administration Allowed Brett Kavanaugh to Skate Onto the Supreme Court

[Maiden Voyage]

I remember Poligaf losing their shit because 538 had Trump with a 30% chance of winning. They felt that was too high and that Nate Silver was a hack. Oh, memories.

Haha. I distinctly remember this, too.

There was some stupid meme they were trying to make happen. Was it that they called Nate Cohn "Nate Gold"? Or was it that they called Nate Silver "Nate Bronze"? Maybe both?

[Himu]

https://twitter.com/alexckaufman/status/1049741462257188865

[Great Rumbler]

Man, 2008 feels like such simpler and more carefree times...

[Madrun Badrun]

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/chretien-says-rise-apos-unspeakable-210238237.html

:amcry

[Joe Molotov]

Mama mia!

[Himu]

https://theintercept.com/2018/10/09/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court-bush-administration/

Obama’s Resistance to Investigating the Bush Administration Allowed Brett Kavanaugh to Skate Onto the Supreme Court

This article makes me furious.

[Himu]

Bigly on due process.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1050016505985978368

[james]

Another Trump region being destroyed by Mother nature.

Shame.

[shosta]

The second fact check is an echo of something benji once did to Dmitri Dmitriyevich about libertarians / Libertarians. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.

The first fact check is a reference to a period where the Communist Party USA was somewhat similar to the present day Democratic Socialists of America, albeit with fewer FBI agents and the use of democratic centralism. (If you belong to an organization run with democratic centralism you will be expelled from DSA by the letter of its laws.) Earl Browder was very keen on FDR, not unlike Optimus.

Plebeian: Joining a 3rd party because you have sincerely awakened politically
Contrarian: Joining a 3rd party just to feel special whenever it comes up, despite not being a devotee to the underlying ideology
Patrician: Getting kicked out of the party you built because you refuse to abandon your values in the face of a changing political landscape

[kingv]

https://theintercept.com/2018/10/09/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court-bush-administration/

Obama’s Resistance to Investigating the Bush Administration Allowed Brett Kavanaugh to Skate Onto the Supreme Court

This article makes me furious.

How can they make a correction today and leave in an obvious typo like “and and”

[Nintex]

Man, 2008 feels like such simpler and more carefree times...

Yeah, we only had to deal with the biggest economic crisis in recent history.

1999 - 2000

Now those were carefree times. Dreamcast launch, rebuilding the Balkans, expansion of the EU and start of the Euro, watching Putin take over Russia to stabilize it.
Basically the only thing regular folks had to worry about was the 'Millennium bug'. After 2001 EVERYTHING went to shit.
I feel that we're just now getting out of the hole that we made for ourselves by trying to impose our will on other regions. After 17 long winding years.

[Great Rumbler]

Man, 2008 feels like such simpler and more carefree times...

Yeah, we only had to deal with the biggest economic crisis in recent history.

1999 - 2000

Now those were carefree times. Dreamcast launch, rebuilding the Balkans, expansion of the EU and start of the Euro, watching Putin take over Russia to stabilize it.
Basically the only thing regular folks had to worry about was the 'Millennium bug'. After 2001 EVERYTHING went to shit.
I feel that we're just now getting out of the hole that we made for ourselves by trying to impose our will on other regions. After 17 long winding years.

[Kara]

People were worried about the obvious tech bubble bursting before 2001 (especially during 2000).

I guess that's a simpler time compared to the present where a tech bubble conjoined with several other bubbles might as well not exist with the coverage that it gets.

[Nintex]

In hindsight the years 2012 - 2015 were probably the worst.
The entire world seemed to fall apart at the seams with those crazy fuckers of ISIS drowning people in cages or setting them on fire.
Putin rolling into Ukraine uncontested, one of if not the worst migration crisis in history, a bunch of massive natural disasters and Greece given the choice to either sign up for austerity or basically die as a warning to everyone else to march to the drumbeat of the IMF and central banks.

Even though Europe is still slowly destroying itself the world seems 'less tense' than it was in those years.

[shosta]

do you smoke crack

[Nintex]

Shocking, youngsters don't vote

https://twitter.com/jacobsoboroff/status/1049670459577552901

[TakingBackSunday]

sigh

[Kara]

do you smoke crack

We have the anti-global warming movement and we have those that deny global warming.
I think it's high time for a pro global warming movement.

[Joe Molotov]

I didn't know Nintex was a centrist, banning him right now. 

[team filler]

[Himu]

(Image removed from quote.)

Bill is an adulterer but a consensual adulterer and has never said anything like grab her by the pussy but ok.

The right is full of false equivalences. This is how Ted Cruz can compare NFL players enacting peaceful protest to flag burning and get away with it.

[Himu]

I only heard of the allegations while he was in office (re: Lewinsky). But a quick google search shows that you’re right. I hadn’t heard of these accusations from Juanita Broadrrick and retract my previous statement.

[Kara]

I didn't know Nintex was a centrist, banning him right now. 

Critical support for our administration at this time. 🇸🇾🇻🇪🇰🇵🇮🇷🇨🇺

[Nintex]

Wasn't Clinton involved in the Epstein case?

I believe he boarded his 'lolita flights' on Epstein's jet about a dozen times.
That was pretty much all proven when Epstein got sentenced. The other stuff, is kinda more hazy. As it goes into Bilderberg/ClintonFoundation/Pizzagate territory from there.

I believe there was one witness who had attended or accommodated one of Epstein parties that was willing to testify as he was not implicated himself and he's now the President.