What are the odds of Trump getting reelected? [Also, French Cindi]

[Occam]

Unless something unforseen happens, I'd say better than 50% now that he has effectively ended the rule of law (l'état, c'est moi) and there are no more checks and balances.

[benjipwns]

3.7

[james]

0%

Bernie and the bros simply won't allow it to happen.

[team filler]

plan the parade

[D3RANG3D]

60-70%

[Great Rumbler]

Higher than the odds of you making a good thread.

[recursivelyenumerable]

50%

[Nintex]

His crowds in states he lost in 2016 are bigger than they were in 2016.
The GOP apparatus including Fox News will actually fully support his campaign.
He actually has some accomplishments to run on, especially on the economy and terrorism.
He has more money to spend and a far better organized campaign.
He has no Republican challengers and the party is unified behind him.
He will probably end the war in Afghanistan this year.
The Democrats are even more divided than they were in 2016.

The only thing that can upset Trump is a great candidate on the other side. But none seem up to the job.
Sanders is attacked from all sides by his own party. Mike Bloomberg has the money but none of the charisma, policies or supporters.
Buttigieg would probably lose the minority vote to Trump.

I'm quite amazed by how poor the Demoratic field is.

[OnlyRegret]

well, it helps to know who he is running against first

[Occam]

well, it helps to know who he is running against first

It's quite shocking how poorly the Democratic Party is handling this.

[benjipwns]

What do you propose they should have done?

[team filler]

coronate king bernie 

[Nintex]

What do you propose they should have done?

Get Trump to switch sides

Run Kevin Spacey in his Underwood character?

[OnlyRegret]

What do you propose they should have done?

eliminate Bernie "Sandersovich" Bernardsky in order to give the people's vote to saint bloomberg to topple drumpf at any cost

[Nintex]

coronate king bernie 

I like Bernie, he stands and fights for something.

But, I don't see how he can get over 33% of the vote at best with his socialist ideas in a country where raising taxes is considered a criminal offense.
New York could turn red, not because Trump would win it but Jim Cramer, Chris Matthews and other horrible Wall Street and MSM people would just machine gun the Bernie voters to protect themselves against the communist purges.

[benjipwns]

But, I don't see how he can get over 33% of the vote at best

That would be the worst defeat in American history by some margin. Except for that time nobody ran against James Monroe.

[team filler]

was monreo the hilldawg of his time? like did he kill everyone that could run against him?

[curly]

46%

[thisismyusername]

50%

I'm on this. Black Pilled stupids (read: the Neolibs like Glenda [PBUH/H for finally getting a brain, moran!], #NeverBernie Clintonesta cultiests, K-Hives, etc) and dyed-in-wool certified Distinguished Mentally Challenged Trump Fellows like Nintex and #ACAB means it's 50/50 on convincing the #NeverBernie folks to "hold their nose" and #VoteBlueNoMatterWho (*Giggle at this*) and get Trump out.

I really want Bernie to win, if only to stick my dick in Glen's eye as a "#BernieWouldveWonIfDNCDidntRig2016" fuck you/petty and because it means the working class would HOPEFULLY get out of the paycheck-to-paycheck hellscape it's in and has been in for decades now. But I don't underestimate how many stupid people there are in America that will want Trump because "#SelfMadeMillionaire" or whatever instead of helping themselves and others.

[curly]

You're trying to kill Glen, aren't you

[thisismyusername]

*Looking off camera. Nodding. Moving to the mic*
I deny these accusations, but if Glen died from a brain hemorrhage as the Soviet Anthem and Tanks went down D.C., I wouldn't mourn.

[OnlyRegret]

You're trying to kill Glen, aren't you

emancipate glenda from their daemons

[Himu]

It's Glenda and I'm currently preparing my exit from America just in case. Kind of done with the country. Every day i wallow in quiet resentment. Every thing is corrupt and hollow. Contacted multiple consulates already about immigration and getting passport as well as working two jobs to save up thousands for the move. If it comes down to Trump or Bloomberg, I'm out. I'm considering leaving anyways because of how defeatist America is. Constant excuses and "we cant do this in America." America merely subsists on the scraps of prior achievement. It is the best in nothing. The past month has made it clear, from the Impeachment trial to Barr to people trying to stop Bernie and saying having healthcare is a radical position. Have your scraps.

Can't wait for the next time an innocent  black person is killed in their own home and people find ways to say it's perfectly fine.

I was looking to just move to a different part of the country but now I'm fully planning my exit.

[bdoughty]

98% chance of Trump win if the opponent is anyone other than Biden.
97% chance if it is Biden.
99.9% chance if Nate Silver and 538 have a Democrat winning the election.

[Himu]

Which countries are you looking at?

France, UK despite brexit, Spain, Germany, Canada.

[Himu]

Let's be honest. Even if Sanders win the presidency they will fight his agenda tooth and nail despite being popular. Americans are without representation. At this point you would find far more freedom for success outside of America than within it.

[benjipwns]

I wouldn't advise becoming a stateless person.

[Occam]

UK despite brexit

Not a good idea. Britain has a strong class system with low social mobility. It's going to get worse now.
Thanks to decades of Murdoch brainwashing, much like in America, poor people continue to vote against their own interests.
Without EU support of economically underdeveloped regions and sectors, those regions where the majority voted for Brexit will soon start to suffer the most. There'll be more unemployment as the industry leaves the island.

[Himu]

UK despite brexit

Not a good idea. Britain has a strong class system with low social mobility. It's going to get worse now.
Thanks to decades of Murdoch brainwashing, much like in America, poor people continue to vote against their own interests.
Without EU support of economically underdeveloped regions and sectors, those regions where a majority voted for Brexit will soon start to suffer the most. There'll be more unemployment as the industry leaves.

It's the last on the list and not given priority. It's only a consideration.

France is number one.

Also I never said that Europe was perfect. But it's a hell of a lot better than America where we debate healthcare in 2020 and have zero real choice regarding political parties.

[benjipwns]

Then why is France number one on the list.

[Mr Gilhaney]

100%

[toku]

y'all are so positive 

spoiler (click to show/hide)

[close]

[Nintex]

France is great, you only have to worry about riots and the government stealing pensions causing more riots.
Plus their German parents taking over the bank account to implement some good old Austerity but here we call it Reform or as the Germans call it: sparpolitik.

If I was moving to Europe from abroad I would hit the Nordic countries or move to the Netherlands.
A Dutch and Serbian friend of mine moved to Sweden. Great opportunities there in the tech sector.

Still, you will find migration from the US to Europe pretty difficult if you don't have a job or something lined up here.
Maybe you can insult Trump on TV get threatened in the US and become a political refugee.
You'd probably be on every talk show too for some easy cash. 

[CatsCatsCats]

Idk man, shits wild out there. We’ve slid into a very unlikely reality, so it’s hard to tell what’s likely here 

[thisismyusername]

>Implying Europe is better than America
>Especially for PoC.

[CatsCatsCats]

>Implying Europe is better than Europe
>Especially for PoC.

Yeah Europe is probably the same as Europe lol boom, roasted

[bdoughty]

But is Europe worse than Europe?

Like many a futbol match, it's a draw and everyone goes home disappointed.

[bdoughty]

How does one even begin to compare a band with an entire continent?

Have you heard the Lyrics to Final Countdown?

[thisismyusername]

>Implying Europe is better than Europe
>Especially for PoC.

Yeah Europe is probably the same as Europe lol boom, roasted

Match popped up during matchmaking before I noticed my typo. Damn it.

Point is, Cindy would be in for a rude awakening if she went anywhere in Europe besides like... maybe the Nordic. And even then...

[Mandark]

53%

[Mr Gilhaney]

>Implying Europe is better than Europe
>Especially for PoC.

Yeah Europe is probably the same as Europe lol boom, roasted

Match popped up during matchmaking before I noticed my typo. Damn it.

Point is, Cindy would be in for a rude awakening if she went anywhere in Europe besides like... maybe the Nordic. And even then...

lol m8 we dont like minorities either.

[bdoughty]

Point is, Cindy would be in for a rude awakening if she went anywhere in Europe besides like... maybe the Nordic. And even then...

Watch Midsommar. No fruit for you.

[Mr Gilhaney]

honestly the last 10 to 15 years, we have become extremely xenophobic. from just mildly, to full blown racism being acceptable.

[Mandark]

UK despite brexit

I can't attest personally but it sure seems like Britain is TERF-y as hell.

[benjipwns]

It also has a massive choice in political parties for voters.

[Himu]

>Implying Europe is better than Europe
>Especially for PoC.

It is better than America.

In Europe, because I am a black American and not African, I will gain special privilege.

I am also not Muslim. Nor am I a Jew or a romani. Those are the real demos being discriminated against.

Most Europeans are about nationality than race. And since I have almost zero American pride it will be easy to assimilate into.

Also you are applying a blanket statement about people of color in Europe when those cities are chock full of em because you are using an American lens on race. I have talked to and listened to MANY (emphasis) black Americans and they ALL say that they feel more free in Europe than in America. There is a long tradition of black Americans going to France and influencing the overall culture. Jazz musicians went to France and were treated far better than back home. WWI and II black veterans stayed in Europe after the war and were treated with far better humanity. The pilgrimage of black Americans to Europe (and especially France) ranges from many notable  people, ranging from James Baldwin and Eartha Kitt to Ta-Nehisi Coates.

As an artist, I have reason to move. Americans do not respect art. Americans also limit education and access to it.

It's funny y'all mention all this shit in Europe, which is certainly flawed, while Trump and Barr is going down. Even when America is burning, Americans think they are the better. Which reinforces the culture of stagnancy where nothing has improved in decades.

This isn't to say Europe is perfect. Far from it. Noehere on Earth really is. I already mentioned the islamphobia and antisemitism.  But in Europe I will no longer have to defend my dignity of being human for merely being black or trans.

[Himu]

UK despite brexit

I can't attest personally but it sure seems like Britain is TERF-y as hell.

It is which is why it's last on the list.

[Mandark]

It is better than America.

In Europe, because I am a black American and not African, I will gain special privilege.

I am also not Muslim. Nor am I a Jew or a romani. Those are the real demos being discriminated against.

Most Europeans are about nationality than race. And since I have almost zero American pride it will be easy to assimilate into.

Also you are applying a blanket statement

Please read the first four lines, then that fifth line.

[bdoughty]

Throw this in the blanket statement jamboree.

As an artist, I have reason to move. Americans do not respect art. Americans also limit education and access to it.

[thisismyusername]

Even when America is burning, Americans think they are the better.

America is a trash fire. I will flatly admit that. HOWEVER, if you honestly think Europe isn't as much (if not more/less depending on the country) a trash fire... I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

In Europe, because I am a black American and not African, I will gain special privilege.

"But they'll treat me better because I'm not African!"

Talk about out of touch/not knowing what is going on there. Doesn't matter if you're not a Muslim or African: They still see you as "other."

[benjipwns]

Have you even looked into how you have to immigrate into Europe? How to gain more than residency since you want to vote and such?

And "easy to assimilate into" France?

[OnlyRegret]

POLAND

[bdoughty]

Just move to Canada and take all those Celebs who promised to move there with you.

[Himu]

By all means tell me the good merits of America.

Between the work to live Protestant crap, broken political system, political apathy, seeing things as caring for your own citizens as a privilege rather than a right, the religiosity that seeps into politics, putting almost a trillion into a war machine while your citizens suffer from depression/drug addiction/poverty/lack of insurance. In America nothing can be done. "We can't do that in America." America is currently allowing a billionaire to buy the presidency.

America blows. Anything positive it has can be obtained elsewhere.

[bdoughty]

You have already made up your mind. Here is the list of the Celebs to pick up as you head out on your journey to the Great White North. 

https://www.kisssudbury.com/2016/11/09/list-celebrities-moving-canada/

[Himu]

She has a point about lethal force and police brutality against black people here, there's no euro equivalent but yea. The rest is a lot of wishful thinking, totally understand if you want better healthcare or more material support. It's why people want to move to America from the periphery too

Edit: plus Europe is safer and you get to work even less at our fake first worlder jobs. Core life is sweet

4-5 weeks of vay cay. And the French have daily one to two hour lunch breaks. Me as fuck.

Here, one time I worked a job where I had 12 hour shifts and would, at some points, not have days off. I would work 12 hour shifts daily for two weeks without a day off.

America is a sick, selfish country. Its idea of freedom and opportunity is money.

[benjipwns]

Excuse me, excuse me, I'd just like to ask a question, what does God need with a starship what do you know about immigrating into Europe? Especially France?

Or say, about French political culture? (Like its apathy and religiosity...)

[Himu]

Excuse me, excuse me, I'd just like to ask a question, what does God need with a starship what do you know about immigrating into Europe? Especially France?

Or say, about French political culture? (Like its apathy and religiosity...)

I'm still learning.

However I know stats that my aspie brain has memorized.

The current republic of France, the fifth in its history, was established through it's constitution written in 1958. Current voter apathy resulted in the lowest vote turn out in years with a 70% vote rate. This number however is still far better than America's and the French are far more politically engaged as seen by many recent riots.

Newspapers in the mainstream such as Liberation and Le Monde have further radicalized. However, many french news sources such as France24 are consistently reliable.

Immigrating into France as an American is very long. In order to obtain a visa in France you have to get a stamp which you must purchase for ~200 EU. You must show that you will be an active productive member of society and add to the culture. You must show proof of work or the want investing in France via curation of a business. In France, a non long stay is merely 90 days. Any longer requires more legwork. It is much easier to immigrate to Germany. In France you must be upper intermediate in French to fully access a long stay visa. I will be purchasing Assimil's French series to learn the language and attempt to become trilingual.

As for religion, as a Catholic country I'm not sure of how religion infects the general politics. As said, I'm learning. But given the French desire to help climate change and its pro-choice options, from I've seen it impacts very little because even though it is majority catholic, that number is still only ~50%.

In France, including many other issues brought up is police brutality which is a bigger problem in France unlike, say, Germany.

[Himu]

Even when America is burning, Americans think they are the better.

(Image removed from quote.)

America is a trash fire. I will flatly admit that. HOWEVER, if you honestly think Europe isn't as much (if not more/less depending on the country) a trash fire... I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

In Europe, because I am a black American and not African, I will gain special privilege.

"But they'll treat me better because I'm not African!"

Talk about out of touch/not knowing what is going on there. Doesn't matter if you're not a Muslim or African: They still see you as "other."

Wrong. I won't be considered "other" I will be considered American. I greatly look forward to shedding my American identity so I will embrace being french.

[TEEEPO]

LOL AS SOMEONE WHO LIVED IN FRANCE FOR A YEAR IN A SMALL TOWN, GOOD FUCKING LUCK