The thing is you don't have to speculate.
Will Smith not only addressed the issue head on in his tear-soaked acceptance speech at the same awards show, talking about how he's been taking a constant barrage of criticism against himself and his family for years; but he then also addressed it the next day on his social in a direct apology to Chris Rock.
At this point, the continued desire to speculate about what the REAL issue is, rather than what Will Smith has directly commented on, feels like people searching for a reason to just view Will as inherently violent and undeserving of sympathy.

Is posting an instagram story actually a 'direct apology'?
Because from all accounts he hasn't said
shit directly to Chris Rock, let alone an actual
apology; what he
has issued are a number of public statements that incorporate apologetic rhetoric, but for a site that is usually fucking ruthless on apologies having to be in a specific format before they 'count', era sure are giving big willy style an enormous benefit of the doubt here