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How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?

Extremely concerned
Somewhat concerned
Unconcerned
Not concerned at all

Author Topic: How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?  (Read 4665 times)

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Leadbelly

  • Senior Member
Re: How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?
« Reply #60 on: March 28, 2022, 06:33:17 PM »
Russia is a very big country. The UK is a small one. We may let a few nukes off, but I fear it would be like a scratch. Maybe not a scratch, more like a big bruise.

You know, if Russia nuked Ukraine, I'm not sure what would happen. Possibly nothing. I'm not sure any nuclear power would want to go there.

Nintex

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Re: How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?
« Reply #61 on: March 28, 2022, 07:41:12 PM »
If Russia nukes Ukraine Europe will respond as the fallout would likely reach NATO territory.
However the question is which type of nuke they deploy and what they fire it at.
Nuking Kyiv for instance will elicit a different response than using a tactical nuke on a large armored formation.

The UK is a very likely target after that. I would say these are the most probable targets in order:
0. Tactical Nuke on military target in Ukraine
1. Kyiv, Ukraine
2. 'training/testing ground' in a NATO state
3. NATO units that are a 'threat' to Russia
4. Warsaw, Poland
5. London, UK
6. Tokyo, Japan (to force China to pick a side)
7. Washington/New York, US

Poland and the UK are probably the most likely to start a conventional war against Russia when Ukraine falls and the Russians push on. There's not much in terms of natural barriers like rivers or mountains to defend Poland and since that's where NATO and the EU begin the Polish/German border is now one and the same strategically. Russia can't win such a war so nuking Warsaw or London (or both) would force surrender from every state (Germany, Baltics(if not yet conquered), Denmark, Netherlands etc.) in between and cause the least damage to the 'prize'. The Russians don't believe in Mutual Assured Destruction (never have) and prefer the 'Escalate to De-escalate' doctrine.
They think that once the first nuke drops everyone will make their own decisions depending on the target and circumstances. And looking at how things are progressing currently they're probably right.

US would always be last on their list, because as long as they only attack European states some in the US will likely argue to stay out of the (nuclear) war.
Especially if states like Germany don't want to fight against the Russians.


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Hamarr

  • Junior Member
Re: How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?
« Reply #62 on: March 29, 2022, 12:00:39 AM »
Somewhat concerned.  On the plus side, all of the Cold War era fear of nuclear war songs are relevant again.



Phoenix Dark

  • I got no game it's just some bitches understand my story
  • Senior Member
Re: How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?
« Reply #64 on: October 07, 2022, 03:47:38 PM »
Not concerned. Putin doesn't seem suicidal. A nuclear attack on Ukraine wouldn't win him the war, and instead would just get his army decimated by the US air force.
010

james

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Re: How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?
« Reply #65 on: October 07, 2022, 04:46:31 PM »
:O

Polident Hive

  • Member
Re: How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?
« Reply #66 on: October 07, 2022, 05:05:42 PM »
Not concerned. Putin doesn't seem suicidal. A nuclear attack on Ukraine wouldn't win him the war, and instead would just get his army decimated by the US air force.

This next to the prediction Avatar won’t cross $250 million…

Gonna go stock up on canned beans.

Nintex

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Re: How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?
« Reply #67 on: October 07, 2022, 05:11:53 PM »
He made Kadyrov a general so he's listening to the Ultra Nationalists who want him to use a nuke.
They've lauched this idea of a 'low yield' nuclear weapon.

With that said Russia has reconfirmed that it believes nuclear war should be avoided at all costs.
The longer this conflict goes on the more likely it is that Russia will deploy a nuclear weapon.

The danger is that Ukraine can't really defeat them, so as long as Russia thinks it can win it will try all their options to win.

The Dutch PM poured some additional oil on the fire today by stating that even just a nuclear test that violates the international rules will have catastrophic consequences for Russia.

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1578491994024054784

The Ukrainians are starting to discover something else on the battlefield that's very worrying.
The Russians aren't rotating or redeploying their troops nor are any allowed to go on leave. They're not pulling well trained and skilled airborne or special forces from the front lines.
Instead they put them in trenches to rot along with the LNR/DNR troops.

The theory is that Moscow wants to bury the truth about what is really happening in Ukraine (the locals not being in their favor and the lack of any NATO hordes) so they don't want their troops to come back.
Which means that America's threat of destroying the Russian military in Ukraine in case a nuclear weapon is used is not as effective as they think it is.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2022, 06:17:20 PM by Nintex »
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chronovore

  • relapsed dev
  • Senior Member
Re: How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?
« Reply #68 on: October 08, 2022, 06:41:52 PM »
Russians proved in WW II that a pyrrhic victory is still a victory in their books.

That said, Putin knows that using a nuke will prevent Russia from acting on the international stage. They might as well shut their country off from the rest of the world. No-one will deal with them, and any amount of retaliation from other countries is automatically justified. It would be suicide on a national level.

Nintex

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Re: How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?
« Reply #69 on: October 08, 2022, 08:13:44 PM »
At some point it's more about saving face.
Medvedev said any attack on Crimea would be met with an immediate judgement day response. So now the Russians are asking what's taking so long.
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Pissy F Benny

  • Is down with the sickness
  • Senior Member
Re: How concerned are you about Mr. Putin launching a nuke?
« Reply #70 on: October 08, 2022, 08:44:49 PM »
After this embrassment of an invasion, I'd say its 60-40 that whatever nuke they could drop would be a dud.
(ice)