Lets also look at the Wii's price advantage - in two years there won't be a price advantage! About halfway through this generation, the Wii's price will be about the same as the X360 and probably even the PS3. There is only so much room Nintendo has to drop their price before they are priced out of the market. You can't sell hardware for less than the cost of a game, for example. And the Wii won't sell at all at 100 bucks if the 360 or Ps3 is 150.
They'll be within spitting difference, hell, at launch the Wii is in spitting difference with the 360, but the hardware value is going to make everyone look to 360 or PS3. It's just not going to fly.
I suspect even in Japan, where 360 is a non factor and PS3 is even more expensive, that most consumers will wait for PS3 to become affordable and just stick to PS2. People aren't stupid - the gimmick for Wii will sell the Wii early to everyone interested and the Nintendo faithful, and then the Wii will peter out to obscurity, the same way the GC started fairly strong and was essentially dead within 18 months.
The DS does well because it is a great portable, coming from a market leader, with tremendous and superior third party support, AND has a noticeable price advantage and has a form factor and ergonomics that make it work both with traditional controls and the "gimmick" control, although the "gimmick" in DS' case is a proven portable consumer electronic input method that has wide acceptance in a variety of other portable electronics.
The Wii doesn't have any of these advantages. The price advantage is tiny, since it's only 50 bucks off from a 360 premium. The form factor is nice, being small, but in terms of capabilities, it's behind the 360 and PS3 as a media player and as a media hub. Web browsing (which costs extra!) is kinda nice but who the fuck wants to surf the web in 640x480?? If it didn't fly when it was free with the Dreamcast in 1999, who would care now in 2006? Nintendo is dead last in the market, not only in hardware sales but also software sales...at least third party games sold on Xbox 1. Third party support for Wii is pretty terrible, mostly last gen port overs (not even port ups, no fresh coat of paint like you at least get with 360 port ups), and the waggle is not a proven input method, unless you count the arcade games that use mo-cap inputs...that are fun for 5 minutes until muscle cramp sets in.
Wii is fucking still born but the Nintendrones don't even realize it.
