So yeah the French election, as it was brought up in the other thread.
France is very likely to see a presidential election with a "legitimate" right wing candidate facing off the nationalist far right Marine Le Pen.
Reason for that is that the left is in tatters.
First and foremost, incumbent Socialist president François Hollande is abjectly unpopular. Hollande was elected on regulating finance in the wake of the crisis, renegotiating the way the European Union could help Euro members in crisis to avoid austerity politics, unemployment, reducing public deficits, passing gay marriage and bringing some calm and dignity to public life after the excruciating mandate of Sarkozy (whose style can be best summed up : "for every story, a TV appearance and a law").
Of all this, only gay marriage really panned out. Merkel pretty much told him on day one to get the fuck out and that the Eurozone will stay perfectly as it is now and that was that. Reducing public deficits went out the windows with the terrorist attacks. While less loud and obnoxious than Sarkozy, Hollande wasn't exactly a model of rectitude, with the revelation he dumped his then fiancé for an affair with an actress, plus a few others stories I won't detail. He also elevated Manuel Valls as prime minister mid-mandate, and Valls is pretty much a Diet Socialist version of Sarkozy.
This socialist government also fucked it up pretty good after the terrorists attacks : it tried to push through a measure suggested by Sarkozy a few years prior, which consisted in stripping terrorists of their French nationality. You can't make someone an apatrid in international law, so on top of being dumb (dudes blowing themselves up in France probably aren't gonna be impressed) it only could be applied to people with two passports, a miniscule minority. The popular Ministry of Justice, Christine Taubira, which was the main force in pushing gay marriage, resigned over this.
Final nail in the coffin was probably the multiple labour reform laws they tried to pass, first at the behest of the Economy minister (a former bankster... which may now run in the election as a centrist independent !) then of the Labour ministry -as I told in this thread a few months ago- as the last major reform of their mandate. President Hollande was already wildly unpopular by then but he certainly lost a few people for good then (myself included). The current cabinet has also lost most of the support from the Greens & the Communists, its two traditional sidekicks.
It's gotten so bad that the Socialist Party is actually conducting a primary for the next election, a primary in which Hollande may or may not run as he said he would decide in December (How do that shit work if Hollande refuses to comply but the party choose a candidate...?). Current trends are that a more "leftist" candidate will be chosen this time around.
Unfortunately, as per usual, the radical left will probably squander a potential opportunity to compete because of the usual shitshow.
Most prominent figure is former socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who set a radical cohabitation party last election with the French Communist Party... But the cohabitation fell through because partners really don't see eye to eye on some issues. Mélenchon is defending radical left positions, will favor social policies over adherence to the European project as it stands, is a talented populist and had some admiration for Chavez and the like (my biggest turn off).
Communists accused Mélenchon of having a huge ego, while the Reds were too eager to forget the cohabitation to negotiate local deals with the Socialist Party to save their last strongholds.
The cohabitation party has sunk but Mélenchon has set up a new movement "La France Insoumise" ("Rebellious France") which is not a party, and called upon every radical to flock to his banner (and to his terms !). Communists were divised over the question of joining them (option favored by the First Secretary) or choosing their own candidate and a first vote chose the latter, even though it must be debated a second time by all militants.
The Green Party, which managed to be a dark horse in a couple of elections, has pretty much returned to its state of constant upheaval and of choosing obscure unknown candidates to field.
And as said above, Emmanuel Macron, former Minister of Economy, wants to run as centrist appealing to the most shallow Socialists.
Add to that a couple of Trotskyist outliers and you've got 4-5 potential candidates competing for leftist votes and all somewhat capable to 3% to 15% of the vote, 3 of them running on the same key points (A new constitution for a VIth Republic and a move from a presidential regime to a parliamentary one). Mélenchon could maybe have a chance to compete... but as a grassroot organisation only without the support of at least the Communists, color me skeptical.
Opposite them the main right wing party (Les Républicains, formerly known as UMP itself formerly known a RPR, itself formerly known by a variety of names under De Gaulle leadership) is also having its primary, with the two stronger candidates being former President Nicolas Sarkozy and former Chirac Prime Minister Alain Juppé (also maybe worthy of note, former Sarkozy Primer Minister François Fillon).
Juppé is currently in the lead : always the first and the last of the Chirac loyalists -He pretty much took the fall for Chirac for a ton of embezzling and stuff-, Juppé is probably one of the last man to represent a watered down form of the post-war all-powerful Gaullist movement (for you millenials : A conservative yet statist ideology with priorities of keeping France international status & power, being autonomous from US leadership and modernize the country carried by the charismatic De Gaulle), though in actuality he is really a classical liberal. Juppé has a ton of experience, is not as loud as Sarkozy & not as racist as Le Pen and he is clearly banking of being an acceptable choice for the center left should he be facing Le Pen.
So much so, in fact, that the last independent remainder of french Christian Democracy (the rest was absorbed in UMP by Chirac a few years ago. Christian Democrats never were really as major a thing in France compared to Italy or Germany, mostly being strong in selected regions) François Bayrou, has said that he would run against Sarkozy but not Juppé.
Former President Sarkozy, despite leaving terrible memories, reneging on his promise to leave politics and the numerous justice investigations on illegal funding, does still have some sway. For one, the party itself is his thing, he never made the mistake of letting go of the wheel there. As expected, Sarkozy is doubling down on its past victory by pretty much offering a diet far right program to try to pander to Le Pen voters (Much posing on national values, likes to deport illegal immigrants, rail on Romas etc...). In the wake of Brexit and Trump, Sarkozy has toned down his former pro Europe, pro NATO, pro liberalism stance to also court nationalists on the economic front. Back then, Sarkozy boasted he killed the far right by syphoning their votes but as nationalist Le Pen senior said, the FN voters are not dumb and they prefer to vote for the original, real flavor.
Anyway, as usual in France, the right is way more disciplined in offering a united front and whoever is chosen should not have too much issue gathering at least 20% of the vote in the first round, which is the low cutoff point if you really want to advance to the next round.
Lastly of course is the far right FN. It had some up and downs in the past but really it has proven remarkly resilient and consistent at gathering 15% to 20%. I want to believe that Le Pen would still be strongly opposed would she manage to get to the second round, like her father were against Chirac in 2002 (who won 82% of the vote)... But for one it's pretty certain that a lot of leftist voters wouldn't bother this time as many felt they were fucked, especially if the alternative is Sarkozy. If Le Pen passes, I would certainly not be too surprised if she improves on her father with 35-40%.
Since the presidential mandate has been shortened to 5 years, the National Assembly elections are now conducted just after the presidential one and have never failed so far to give a majority to the new president. In the worst case scenario of a far right presidency, it's not clear the FN could actually win most of the seats as it is actually pretty weak as far as competent personnel go.
Senate is elected indirectly by a college of local elected officials (an half being renewed every 3 years), is currently held by the right wing opposition and this is not expected to change.
