DEBATE! Fearless predictions inside!

[Human Snorenado]

maybe i'm too attuned to mccain's bullshit, but he seemed to be all over the place. i can't figure out how you'd call this a win for him, unless stridency is the only qualifying factor

This is the problem.  I was ready to yell "THAT IS NOT TRUE!" at the TV about two dozen different times, but I waste a lot of time on this crap.

The post-debate commentary always focuses on who "won" which seems to mean who made the best impression on the public.  That's kind of bizarre, because the commentary is being AIRED ON TELEVISION TO THE PUBLIC.

Rather than have talking heads guess what they think, wouldn't the American people be better served by someone actually using that time for fact-checking and providing the relevant context?

WHAT ARE YOU SOME SORT OF COMMUNIST I NEED PAT BUCHANAN TO THINK FER ME

Buchanan actually just mentioned that post debate perception can be shaped by pundits, citing a Reagan-Mondale debate as an example.

[Van Cruncheon]

the conservative wsj set thinks obama won. even the usually anti-obama comments there are pretty respectful.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/09/26/who-won-friday-nights-debate-on-foreign-policy/

[TakingBackSunday]

Yeah, there be some fuckers over on GAF who are freaking the fuck out about it, thinking McCain won hands down.

[Van Cruncheon]

i think it's only a few media contrarians and hand-wringin' colllege twat libruls what think mccain won.

[Mandark]

For the millionth time, I kind of like Buchanan as a pundit (AS A PUNDIT)*.  He's a crazy bigot but he's willing to say what he thinks without relying on talking points from GOP HQ and to be totally upfront about the practice of ethnic identity politics.

spoiler (click to show/hide)

*AS A PUNDIT

[close]

[Rman]

Where's PD?  He usually loves these threads.

[TakingBackSunday]

What's Buchanon saying about the debate?  Dad's watching Prison Break right now.

edit: PD ODed on hopium

[Mandark]

the conservative wsj set thinks obama won. even the usually anti-obama comments there are pretty respectful.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/09/26/who-won-friday-nights-debate-on-foreign-policy/

The moneyed George Will Republican set has kind of soured on McCain recently, thanks to Palin and his flailing around during the financial crisis.

Garrison Keiller had a line about Bush and his cronies, saying that back in the day you could at least count on the GOP to keep the balance books in neat order.  Some people are having a "should this guy have his finger on the button?" moment with McCain, only with the economy.

[Howard Alan Treesong]

BIDEN SPITTIN MAD BALLS OF HOT FIYAH

[youtube=425,350]3QdT-xMe2-s[/youtube]

[Mandark]

As soon as Biden started talking I started TiVoing.  The man can play the dozens with anyone in American politics.



And can I just say what a crock of shit it is that Obama gets flack for his answer in the Youtube debate about meeting with foreign leaders?

Most of the time he's criticized for being too "professorial", using linguistic placeholders while he tries to find the best possible word and overexplaining.

The one time he used a punchy, declarative answer everyone suddenly chooses the most specious possible interpretation ("oh so you'd just drop whatever you were doing and go to Tehran if Ahmadinejad told you to?") and then slams him for it.

Screw it, the whole debate about whether to negotiate is completely distinguished mentally-challenged.

[cool breeze]

BIDEN SPITTIN MAD BALLS OF HOT FIYAH

[youtube=425,350]3QdT-xMe2-s[/youtube]

 

 

[GilloD]

I stayed out of the e-fray until now, but the consensus among the dozen or so 20-somethings I watched this with was that Obama obliterated J Mac. Don't get me wrong, they both held down the fort, but in terms of laying out a case, backing the facts and keeping your cool, Obama champed it. McCain was all over the fucking place, he absolutely failed to make sense in some situations. He came across as weak, distant and ,frankly, weird.

[Bocsius]

I thought McCain did a good job namedropping people and places. He has a clear grasp on world players. However, I fail to see how talking to Iran legitimizes their ideas.  I don't see how that leap happens, and I wish Obama had vocalized that during the debate. He almost did by lampooning Iran's positions and bringing up the opinions of former Secretaries of State and the change in policy within the Bush administration, but he should have said more about the "legitimizing" claim specifically.

Oh, and it was a real eye-roller whenever McCain would say "once again Obama doesn't understand...." I was about ready for Obama to evoke Reagan one of those times, or perhaps one of the times McCain outright lied, and say "Oh there you go again."

[Debaser]

Time for the MANDARK SCORECARD!

Obama will repeatedly bring up other people endorsing his plans (Secretaries of State supporting talks with Iran, Maliki in favor of a timeline, Bush administration sending a negotiator to the Iran talks and conducting operations inside Pakistan) to make him look wise and well-versed by association.  Some of it will be a stretch, some will be on point. YES

McCain will probably bullshit on Iraq in several of the following ways:

* Talking about "extremists" or "militias" without defining them. NO

* Referring to Al Qaeda in Iraq as if they're the same Al Qaeda that executed the 9/11 attacks. YES

* Talking smack about Iran's interference in Iraq without mentioning Iran's strongest ties are with Dawa and ISCI, who are America's biggest allies and run the government in Iraq.  Bonus points for acting like Moqtada Al-Sadr is Iran's puppet. YES

* Surge surge surge surge surge surge surge.  I've already ranted on this one. YES

* Framing the issue as victory/defeat without defining either. YES

McCain's gonna take credit for talking tough about Putin before it was in vogue.  NO

Both candidates will talk about solidarity with Georgia without committing the resources to actually check Russia.  Be fun to see if they're pressed about NATO membership and Article Five. YES

McCain will drop at least one "naive", probably talking about someone not wanting to bomb someone else.  Might use "isolation" too. YES

Obama will bring up his speech against the Iraq war in the first place and will say "ten billion a month" at least once.  At least. YES

Generally, Obama's going to try to fudge the rules by bringing up the domestic economy more than McCain. YES

McCain will growl at Chavez and maybe Castro some.  YES

Obama will say we need to change our Cuba policy but he'll hedge.  Obama might talk a bit about better diplomacy in South America generally, and bring up the fact that China's moving in and investing in infrastructure there. YES

Africa?  Lolz.  Both candidates will pay lip service to Darfur, framing the issue as one-sided abuse.  They both might call it genocide.  McCain will pat himself on the back for straight talk if he's the only one. NO

McCain will rear up on his hind legs, extend his claws, and make menacing gestures at Iran.  Expect him to bring up the bogus "wipe Israel off the map" quote. YES

Obama might say something nuance-y about free trade, cause all the wonks are now saying it's not the absolute positive they thought it would be.  McCain will be generically in favor. NO

McCain will bring up his idea for a new League of Democracies and it will be distinguished mentally-challenged. YES

Not bad, all in all! But I think you should get points off for not calling the POW stuff. I mean, come on!

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

I still think McCain barely edged out Obama.  Not in terms of facts but overall delivery.

McCain did little more than rhetoric because it is easy to bring it up.  McCain got away with so much bullshit and Obama would bring up some of it but not all of it.  The moderation was kind of nonexistent because they just ignored the time limits in the first place.

It wasn't a slam dunk for McCain.  He may gain a point or two off of it but he will lose several with the VP debate.

[Mandark]

I so should get credit for the Putin one!  "I looked into his eyes and saw three letters: K G B."  Come on!  *kicks dirt onto Debaser's shoes*

Thanks for taking the time to do the scorecard though.  I don't think I ever would have gotten around to it, and you used the fancy red text.

  Debaser

[Howard Alan Treesong]

McCain said "horseshit" during the debate!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26909249#26909711

4:31, right after Obama says "aligned with us - I mean, Spain!"

[cool breeze]

two times!

[Crushed]

McCain said "horseshit" during the debate!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26909249#26909711

4:31, right after Obama says "aligned with us - I mean, Spain!"

Wow, I was expecting a noise that only vaguely sounded like "horseshit."  

[Howard Alan Treesong]

I'm not 100% sure it's "horseshit" but if you look at some other feeds that shows McCain at the time, his body language looks really upset and twitchy at that point. Some people think he's saying "course it is" real fast, but it sure sounds like "horseshit" to me

[Crushed]

Some people think he's saying "course it is" real fast, but it sure sounds like "horseshit" to me

That's what I first thought, that that was what it sorta sounded like. But unless it's just the mike or his whisper, there's a very pronounced "sh" sound. So unless he was saying "Coursh it is..."

[Fragamemnon]

Olberman heard "of course not, of course not" , not "horseshit". He's used to hearing McCain's style of speech and heard what he said in the debate live and it definitely wasn't "horseshit".

Blah debate, substance-wise, on both sides. Obama clearly won on presentation and demeanor, McCain did look like an angry old man stuck using the rules and references of the cold war and applying them to the 21st century, which seems pretty silly.

The economy part was espsecially painful, though-mainly because both candidates are petrified at the thought of endorsing any bailout legislation until the congress and adminitration are sold on it. I am actually glad Obama fought back some on McCain's turf-he did a good job communicating his tax policy and hammering McCain, and did a good job detailing to the audience just how meaningless earmarks are, and how absurd it is from a budget perspective the GOP's crusade is to get rid of them (never mind that earmark swapping is the casing by which we package our legislative sausage).

[Mandark]

Hey guys, turns out that Obama was the one getting angry.

[Fragamemnon]

Hey guys, turns out that Obama was the one getting angry.

i spam refeshed five blogs on election night 2006, NRO's Corner being one of them just to watch k-lo cry when Santorum lost.

[Mandark]

Hey guys, turns out that Obama was the one getting angry.

i spam refeshed five blogs on election night 2006, NRO's Corner being one of them just to watch k-lo cry when Santorum lost.

hahahaha

That's schaudenfreude you can believe in, my friends!

[MrAngryFace]

I hate civilian mom

[MrAngryFace]

Olberman heard "of course not, of course not" , not "horseshit". He's used to hearing McCain's style of speech and heard what he said in the debate live and it definitely wasn't "horseshit".

Blah debate, substance-wise, on both sides. Obama clearly won on presentation and demeanor, McCain did look like an angry old man stuck using the rules and references of the cold war and applying them to the 21st century, which seems pretty silly.

The economy part was espsecially painful, though-mainly because both candidates are petrified at the thought of endorsing any bailout legislation until the congress and adminitration are sold on it. I am actually glad Obama fought back some on McCain's turf-he did a good job communicating his tax policy and hammering McCain, and did a good job detailing to the audience just how meaningless earmarks are, and how absurd it is from a budget perspective the GOP's crusade is to get rid of them (never mind that earmark swapping is the casing by which we package our legislative sausage).

Nevermind his VP pick. I understand how useless it would have been for obama to bring that up. EVERYONE is guilty of it

[huckleberry]

Hey guys, turns out that Obama was the one getting angry.

Look man, its not like its his fault.  Obama is just limited by his negro nature.  McCain being white can naturally keep his cool under pressure.

[MrAngryFace]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/27/the-smirk-could-mccains-f_n_129831.html

[duckman2000]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/27/the-smirk-could-mccains-f_n_129831.html

So basically, another Bush? Republicans generally don't seem to have much going for them other than the old mocking smirk.

[MrAngryFace]

I think his smirk is a 72 year old smile lol

[huckleberry]

MAF that is amazing.  I was working so I had to listen to the debate on the radio.  All three of us at work thought that McCain did a much better job during the debate than Obama...until I watched the debate this morning.  What an amazing difference seeing it on TV versus listening to it on the radio makes.

[Phoenix Dark]

While trying to be impartial, unbiased etc...I don't see how anyone could argue Obama did not win that debate. He beat McCain on every issue, every talking point. He looked presidential. Polls seem to agree but we'll see later this weekend. I think the public will say Obama won.

It reminded me of that debate where Hillary came out the box attacking Obama over and over again - except this time it was Obama attacking McCain over and over again. He played defense when he had to, but was on offense 90% of the time. McCain didn't even use his own talking points well. On Iran he didn't use the same language his ads do (tiny country, etc). He was pushing the wrong buttons at the same time, most evident at the end where he was sprouting buzz words - surge, naive, etc.

Perhaps most shockingly McCain totally bombed the beginning of the debate concerning the bail out. He didn't distance himself from Obama or Bush. He didn't really mention "suspending" his campaign. I couldn't believe that

[Van Cruncheon]

the liberals' magical negro

[Phoenix Dark]

I watched it on PBS at this almost mansion-like old house. One of my dad's friends is heavily involved in the Ypsilanti Obama election campaign and he invited a bunch of people over. Lots of old liberal yuppies - it was like a real life version of poligaf without the memes and pictures.

*McCain grumbling*
old fart: bububub Haliburton!
*McCain garbling*
old lady: LOL LIKE KEATING FIVE AMIRITE
*McCain pedo smile*
old dude: he's more senile than me lol

smh

But the funniest thing was after the debates they got into a discussion on whether those Palin/bikini/gun photoshops were real pictures 

old lady: it's so disrespectful to women. what type of VP takes her clothes off like that
old lady 2: my son said they were fake
old lady 3: her breasts? probably lol
old dude: they look real to me

welcome to the internet 

[Human Snorenado]

Obviously we won't know how the polls will start reflecting the debate until tomorrow, but it's obvious that McCain's "suspending the campaign to save the economy" stunt didn't work:

New Gallup is 49-44 Obama after being tied two days ago (rolling three day average, and it should make a large jump tomorrow because in one day Obama went from three up to tied- that was three days ago so once the one good day for McCain gets taken out I bet Obama is over 50, especially if he gets a good debate bump)

New Rasmussen is 50-44 Obama.  Rasmussen's polling this cycle has traditionally tended to favor Republicans and if I'm not mistaken this is the first time Obama has been at 50 or over in their polling.

Obviously polls are pretty much bullshit, but it's time to start paying a little bit more attention to them, at least in the sense that they can help shape perceptions.  Trends are tending to favor Obama.  IMO if he gets a modest little bounce from this debate and then Palin pulls a Hindenberg at the VP debate on Thursday, this thing is OVER.  The last debate is on the economy.  The only thing that could save McCain at that point is for a war to break out on American soil or Obama to show up in FUBU gear to the last debate.

[Phoenix Dark]

Or Bin Laden capture

The public consensus seems to be that Obama won. Lots of people also saw it as a tie - which to me is a fuckin Obama win considering McCain's perceived foreign policy advantage. Lets see if McCain can tie things up in an economic debate lol

As I said yesterday, Obama is going to sail through this weekend on top. Monday will be dominated by positive polling and questioning of McCain's debate tactics. Then on tuesday I have a fucking accounting test the VP debate, which should be a riot. Initially I thought that unless Palin does something stupid she'd get positive reviews; the bar is set that low. But after watching the media lambast her for the last few days, and considering her undeniably horrible interview performances, I think the media already has the tar n' feathers out. Only concern could be Biden's week of gaffes/fuck ups - lets hope that doesn't carry into the debate

[huckleberry]

the liberals' magical negro

[youtube=425,350]<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value=""></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>[/youtube]


Heard this on talk radio the other day...couldn't believe it.

[Human Snorenado]

Or Bin Laden capture

The public consensus seems to be that Obama won. Lots of people also saw it as a tie - which to me is a fuckin Obama win considering McCain's perceived foreign policy advantage. Lets see if McCain can tie things up in an economic debate lol

As I said yesterday, Obama is going to sail through this weekend on top. Monday will be dominated by positive polling and questioning of McCain's debate tactics. Then on tuesday I have a fucking accounting test the VP debate, which should be a riot. Initially I thought that unless Palin does something stupid she'd get positive reviews; the bar is set that low. But after watching the media lambast her for the last few days, and considering her undeniably horrible interview performances, I think the media already has the tar n' feathers out. Only concern could be Biden's week of gaffes/fuck ups - lets hope that doesn't carry into the debate

Honestly, I think a Bin Laden capture wouldn't necessarily be that big of a game changer.  "7 years later and we got him!  We're on top of it!"

Also, the Veep debate is on THURSDAY, Maurice.   

[Phoenix Dark]

oh for real? fuck yea

[Brehvolution]

After the debate, I turned it to FUX news and told my wife,"Now watch these people all say that MCain won the debate."
Like clockwork. 

[Phoenix Dark]

Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people are more than concerned about Palin.

The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as “disastrous.” One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, “What are we going to do?” The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is “clueless.”

http://www.wegoted.com/
 

[Mr. Gundam]

I didn't think McCain did that bad, but this was his best chance at winning a debate, and he clearly didn't win this. Obama did a good job holding his own.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

A lot of people are focusing on the eye contact, after talking with a lot of dudes on both sides today.  It is clear that McCain was scared shitless up there.  He had jack shit and he knew it.  Why else would he bring up Ronald Reagan and being a POW as often as he did?  Again, it was more Hail Mary plays by invoking the GOP Lenin...or Jesus if you will.

McCain was very aggressive but I have to congratulate Obama.  Obama shot dead the earmark bullshit.  That is another Republican talking point that is dead in the water.  Obama however let McCain get away with too much shit regarding Iraq.  Obama held his own but he didn't counter McCain's usual like he did with economic matters.  I think the best part is that Obama did his best with the economic portion as he tried to call out McCain's several inaccuracies.

I still think it was a slight McCain edge.  No handwringing shit (I know this is going to be the new meme) intended.  However, foreign policy was supposed to be McCain's strength and if he barely come out ahead over Obama, even in public perception, he is done.  This was supposed to be his golden moment.  It won't be over the Economy and it won't be over any kind of domestic issue.

Polls are BS but people still look at them.  If its 50-44 Obama, then people are going to think that Obama is the better choice.  When it rains, it pours.

Speaking of pouring, I have a bet going on with a couple friends that Palin will either have a tantrum, a meltdown, early leave, or start crying in the debate.  She can't handle lightweights like Couric and Gibson, I almost feel sorry for her when she goes up against one of America's best.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

I don't think so.

A lot of people still like Palin (granted, that number is dwindling) but this debate will be nail in the coffin for Palin's legitimacy.  People will now see Palin up against someone else, debating.  This debate will be the jarring wake up call that Palin is not a misunderstood genius or that the evil librul media is after her.  It is just her, Biden, and the moderator.

We expect Palin to bomb but there are millions of soccer moms out there who think she is a "smart, tough cookie."  When they see her get steamrolled by Biden, their romance with her will end.  I don't expect them all to convert to Obama/Biden but it will be a significant loss for the GOP...and McCain knows it.

The expectations have been low for Palin since the very start and she still manages to fail even those.  By next week, the fact that she can dress herself will now be considered an achievement.  Plus with all those people in the audience sitting there, not knowing what questions are getting asked, I think she will get nervous and immediately begin stumbling.

Honestly, I think she will be overly concise.  She will give out a lot of short, useless answers, and will look "mechanical" because she is trying so hard not to nervously ramble.

[MrAngryFace]

The trouble with Palin is when she honestly TRIES, she rambles all over the latest talking points memo. They question will be about national security but she'll somehow make HUGE reaches to include EVERY SINGLE TALKING POINT from the campaign as a single answer about foreign policy.

What's even stranger is she won't do this for some things, there is a point where she DOES say "I dont know" and laughs nervously. Eventually she cycles through all of the talking points and whats left is a veep pick that can't think on her toes AT ALL. The 90 minute debate format will see her fading fast past 30 minutes.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Moderator: Thank you Senator Biden.  Governor Palin, you have two minutes to respond.
Palin: Uh, I don't know *giggles*
Moderator: ...
Biden: ...
Palin: ...

[Tristam]

You guys are underestimating Palin -- not her ability to completely mangle a response due to sheer ignorance, but her ability to respond at all. Maybe you were exaggerating, but she ain't gonna flee the stage or be completely tongue-tied or break down crying (actually, maybe I can see the last one, and at a couple points in the 2004 VP debate, when asked if he had a response to Edwards, Cheney crankily replied "No."). Still, I expect her to wing it for nearly every prompt.

[AdmiralViscen]

Word salad with buzzwords seemed to work well enough for McCain, if Biden shits on her too hard she'll become a sympathetic figure.

[brawndolicious]

After 8 years, people don't want a "sympathetic" president who just makes stuff up and shouts the loudest.  McCain kept an assholish tone the whole debate and hardly knew what he was talking about on some of the topics.  This alone doesn't make him lose the election but he lost supporters, or at least Obama gained a lot of the people who were on the fence.

Word salad with buzzwords seemed to work well enough for McCain, if Biden shits on her too hard she'll become a sympathetic figure.

^that just won't happen.  biden knows not to be too aggressive on her due to her completely insane family/xtian/vagina values base that would claim that she was being intimidated by his big words and that it's not her fault that she's totally unqualified.  Biden will make all of his points in the most simple and "nice" way possible but still keep on the offense and call her on her bullshit every time she says something dumb.  If Palin consistently fucks up every topic (which I would expect) I can honestly see that as being the final nail on the coffin.

[tiesto]

Word salad with buzzwords seemed to work well enough for McCain, if Biden shits on her too hard she'll become a sympathetic figure.

That's really what I'm worried about... I mean, I'd absolutely love to see Biden rip her a new asshole, but I would be worried that a lot of women and more feminine men would feel sorry for her and think Biden a total dipshit for being so cruel to the poor precious Palin.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

After 8 years, people don't want a "sympathetic" president who just makes stuff up and shouts the loudest.  McCain kept an assholish tone the whole debate and hardly knew what he was talking about on some of the topics.  This alone doesn't make him lose the election but he lost supporters, or at least Obama gained a lot of the people who were on the fence.

Word salad with buzzwords seemed to work well enough for McCain, if Biden shits on her too hard she'll become a sympathetic figure.

^that just won't happen.  biden knows not to be too aggressive on her due to her completely insane family/xtian/vagina values base that would claim that she was being intimidated by his big words and that it's not her fault that she's totally unqualified.  Biden will make all of his points in the most simple and "nice" way possible but still keep on the offense and call her on her bullshit every time she says something dumb.  If Palin consistently fucks up every topic (which I would expect) I can honestly see that as being the final nail on the coffin.

Agreed.  In fact, Biden doesn't need to attack her that much if even at all.  I expect him to make more attacks on McCain and the GOP than Palin.  Palin's worst enemy will be herself.  She will probably try to attack Biden but if she says it in the most garbled manner, then I expect Biden to spend hardly more than one sentence addressing her stupidity and the rest of his time against the GOP.  Biden will make sure Palin can't get anywhere but not in such a way that he comes off as the cruel aggressor.  Palin will fuck up enough on her own; Biden doesn't need to add fuel to the fire.  I think he knows this.

[laesperanzapaz]

but what if he doesnt?

to me, it seems obama seems too clumsy or shy with his words, especially his stuttering, and only a prepared speech seems to make him sound CLEAR and DIRECT with the CUT THRU THE BULLSHIT voicetone he sometimes but oft rarely achieves.

for biden, the man is like a timebomb.  Waaaayyyyt too frank.  We like honesty, biden, but not that much.

[brawndolicious]

Palin just gets totally lost when she starts to bullshit on issues the she doesn't know.  She can't learn politics overnight and the only preparation that a candidate can really do for a debate against a experienced politician is learning how to present their opinions in a way that most americans might accept.  If real-world political issues have any possibility of coming up in this debate, she'll be stuck in the middle of a minefield and she'll fail.

Biden has probably gotten a lot of coaching already on not rubbing her face in it every time she says something wrong.  He's probably studied her interviews and seen how she reacts when she's unprepared (which is like every interview that she's had).  This debate will be a textbook case for America on a candidate who is qualified and a candidate who isn't.  It's probably the only VP debate that people will really watch too.

[MrAngryFace]

Biden is awesome, he once made a joke about indians running convenience stores and here he is runnin for vp!