Author Topic: Gentlemen, we do NOT have a bailout! Dow plunges -777!  (Read 41378 times)

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Mandark

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Re: Gentlemen, we do NOT have a bailout! Dow plunges -777!
« Reply #420 on: September 30, 2008, 03:06:52 PM »
I'm off the internet for one day and Evilbore manages to sink the bailout.  Sheesh.

Kestastrophe

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Re: Gentlemen, we do NOT have a bailout! Dow plunges -777!
« Reply #421 on: October 01, 2008, 07:52:58 AM »
I really don't understand the use of mark to market accounting for this. I realize that they are market securities, which are recorded at market value, but the underlying asset is long-term. Historical cost isn't appropriate, but surely another method would suffice.
jon

Kestastrophe

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Re: Gentlemen, we do NOT have a bailout! Dow plunges -777!
« Reply #422 on: October 01, 2008, 08:11:12 AM »
Value is very subjective. Mark to market assumes that value is replacement cost of the asset at current market value and is short-term oriented. Since there is no market, I have to believe that the actual value of these assets is higher especially considering the likelihood of some of these mortgages being collected and the present value of those cash flows. It seems to me that something a method more long-term that captures the long-run collectibility (with conservative assumptions) of those cash flows as well as the short-run replacement cost would bring at some stability to the market without artificially increasing asset values (all of this hinges on the assumption that current asset values are significantly less than their prospective cash flows. It very well could be the case that there is virtually no chance of collectibility on these mortgages).

There is probably a FASB pronouncement or FIN that directly contradicts what I propose though :lol 
« Last Edit: October 01, 2008, 08:13:52 AM by Kestastrophe »
jon

Kestastrophe

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Re: Gentlemen, we do NOT have a bailout! Dow plunges -777!
« Reply #423 on: October 01, 2008, 08:47:42 AM »
seems to rely in the internal policies of the same companies who's internal policies are a large part of why this mess was created.
This is very true and it is a legitimate criticism of this. However, the terms "conservatism" and "reasonableness" (as well as many other terms) are not explicitly defined in the accounting profession and also rely on the internal policies of companies (for instance, Microsoft has overly conservative accounting). This is a consequence of the shareholder vs. stakeholder model.

Quote from: Forgotten Ancient
If there's some middle ground on valuing something at its market value and its potential pv of cash flows, that'd be something worth exploring. 

That is exactly what I proposed. As of right now, only the market value is being accounted for, and when there is no market, the book value of the asset is pointless.
jon

Cormacaroni

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Re: Gentlemen, we do NOT have a bailout! Dow plunges -777!
« Reply #424 on: October 01, 2008, 09:40:48 AM »
The mortgages may be junk in terms of collecting payments, but the underlying asset still exists (the homes) so I wouldn't characterize these as junk, necessarily. It doesn't strike me as unreasonable to assume that if people had the cash for their monthly payments, they'd want to keep their homes, so if there is any kind of upturn soon, I'd expect to see mortgage defaults drop quite rapidly. The system just isn't functioning right now, so no financial asset (mortgages, stocks, bonds, you name it) is being valued at anything near normal levels.

You can certainly blend different valuation methods to attempt to capture both present value and discounted present value of future cash flows etc - research analysts do it all the time! The problem is in convincing anyone else that your method is more valid than anyone else's. Most methods will appear more valid in some financial conditions than others, and of course, as soon as any new standard is set, new financial products will very quickly emerge to exploit it (i.e. that will look better than it otherwise would under the new accounting status quo). Mark-to-market was initially incredibly painful for most firms (not just financial ones), but eventually it became part of the system, and it failed to prevent abuses.
vjj

Kestastrophe

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Re: Gentlemen, we do NOT have a bailout! Dow plunges -777!
« Reply #425 on: October 01, 2008, 10:10:10 AM »
! The problem is in convincing anyone else that your method is more valid than anyone else's. Most methods will appear more valid in some financial conditions than others, and of course, as soon as any new standard is set, new financial products will very quickly emerge to exploit it
Excellent post and this is very true. Enron used mark-to-market accounting on products that should not have been accounted for that way (i believe it was the energy contracts?) and even got SEC approval for this treatment.
jon

Cormacaroni

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Re: Gentlemen, we do NOT have a bailout! Dow plunges -777!
« Reply #426 on: October 01, 2008, 10:24:54 AM »
Oh, absolutely. If the asset you're booking is currently inflated, like oil is (or if you have yourself inflated it, in the case of Enron), then mark-to-market becomes problematic in a whole different way from what we're seeing now.

It's always going to be a war of my accountants vs your accountants, but the private sector is always going to have the smartest, most creative accountants. The public sector just has raw numbers, and the ability to occasionally move the goalposts. Same goes for the law.
vjj

patrickula

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Re: Gentlemen, we do NOT have a bailout! Dow plunges -777!
« Reply #427 on: October 01, 2008, 10:47:46 AM »
Apparently the senate is working on a revised version of the failed House bill.  Sounds like pretty crappy revisions from what I've read so far.
I saw some of the House Dem press conference yesterday with those who voted no on the bill.  I pretty much agreed with them: something has to be done but we shouldn't be railroaded into this huge spending bill that nobody likes except Wall Street.