The debates will swing the tide.
Debates won't matter at all.
What debates does anyone remember? 1960, first TV. 1980, Reagan using his acting chops. 1992, because of Perot. If 2000, it was because of SNL's Gore LOCKBOX sketch and the resulting election disaster. What were the stories out of 2004? Bush's bulletproof vest and his secret timber mill? Kerry's cheating note cards? Those had to have swung the race.
If you don't drop an epic accidental bomb of a gaffe, which is increasingly unlikely due to the controlled nature and shortened response times (I mean Palin vs. Biden, what came out of that? We have the ground set for an epic clusterfuck of a debate where Biden declares an Obama administration will invade Japan with Amtrak while Palin says she'll nuke the gays she can see in Russia, and yet nothing happened and nobody gave a shit) then all you're doing is showing that you're competent to do the role of what most people see the President as. Someone who talks to them on the TV and says they're doing shit to help the middle class and kill terrorists. And then they ascribe their personal situation to our god-king.
Neither Obama nor Romney will be "taking the gloves off" and tearing the others subtle difference in moronic positions apart. They'll be climbing over each other to claim the mantle as the best paranoid centrist path to collapse.
Meh. The map certainly benefits Obama - Romney basically has one path to 270, which is through Ohio.
Romney's best chance scenario is like 280-290 electoral votes. I currently can't see how he can pull this off. That said. The shocking thing are these recent Michigan polls, they can't be right at all. Rasmussen of all people is the only one showing what you'd think is the natural Obama lead.