Alan Wake was never going to sell because honestly it doesn't have a lot of mass appeal. And I think Max Payne is pretty much one of the most over-rated series of all time but at least it hit at the right time with the right gimmick which was bullet time.
The more direct issue with Microsoft is whether they want or understand how to broaden the profile of their console beyond just the shooter box. (Although this is the perfect generation to be a shooter box if that is what you are going to be)
Yeah,i don't think that AW would sell like crazy even if it got 10 10 10 10.... reviews
This is the online gen and if you have no online then people are meh,i will rent,wait until the price drop...especially for shooters,i fully expect that ME3 will have some sort of online multi
There are some games that sell somewhat without online,but let's face it...those games sell because they have a name,Final Fantasy,God of War,etc...but they all have extremely sharp declines
As for the racing games,they will have to morph into some racing,fps,tps,rpg genre just like fps genre has morphed into fps+rpg...
I blame GTA4,Saints Row like games for that.
In short genre blending will be more and more dominant...and devs won't have the luxury to make fps part good,racing part shit or vice versa