Sales Bore | Media Create And Other Sale Numbers |OT|

[Stoney Mason]

The console industry is in trouble.  One of two things is happening here.  Either we're in a slow-motion industry crash, or there was a grave miscalculation on the part of MS/Sony with regards to how long this generation should run.  This year is *awful* compared to last year, which was already down from the prior year, and pretty much everyone is losing money in the console space.

I think one of the issues is that this console generation hasn't followed the traditional price cycle. These consoles would be like $99 dollars or $129 dollars or something any other gen. Instead MS, Sony kept their prices high and just kept putting in larger hard drives and that's not a price drop. A playstation is still $250. That's pretty high relative to history.  They should have hit extremely mainstream prices by this point where its a no brainer to buy one instead of a decent outlay of money.

As far as the Vita that's only going to get worse and worse.

[Owl-faced Wizard]

The continuing high prices and especially long generation is the result of decisions made early on, they really need to keep making a profit on this hardware.  MS/Sony were totally trying to murder each other feature/spec-wise early in the match, and now they're kind of both resting on the ropes trying to catch their breath, calling a temporary truce.  Sorry for the shitty analogy.

[Tasty]

The continuing high prices and especially long generation is the result of decisions made early on, they really need to keep making a profit on this hardware.  MS/Sony were totally trying to murder each other feature/spec-wise early in the match, and now they're kind of both resting on the ropes trying to catch their breath, calling a temporary truce.  Sorry for the shitty analogy.

Worked for me. 

[Vertigo]

Vita needs a serious price drop. Lets see if Sony will be relaunching that thing at E3 a significant price drop and better games are needed. And games that are not just small screen versions of PS3 games.

The other results are no big surprise. There were no big games out so i'm not surprised at the results. Next week Max Payne 3 is out then we have DiabloIII as well, both of those are going to clean up. The industry model is fucked though look at all the big hitters coming from mid september onwards must be like 15-20 'big' games on the way that we know of. After E3 that may expand even more. The we have the WiiU launch how do they expect people t be able to afford all this?

Hopefully R* announces GTAV for October/November that should clear up some space as publishers scramble to move their games.

[maxy]

Is NPD tracking used game sales?

It would be interesting to see how they compare.

[maxy]

bookmarked

[Eel O'Brian]

Not at retail, no.  At retail just about all you ever see is shitty flash game compilations in bargain bins.  As more powerful and affordable off-the-shelf PC systems become available, though, the likelihood of a what we'd consider a "core" downloadable PC game hitting that mark in month one increases.

[archie4208]

Blizzard has already sold 1.2 million copies of D3 via WoW annual passes (worldwide).  That plus a large emphasis on DD makes me believe that D3's opening retail month will be good, but nothing mindblowing.

I think Max Payne 3 will be the top selling retail game of May, if only for the fact it has Rockstar hype and is multiplatform. 

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Feel free to quote this in a month.  I'm awful at this whole sales prediction thingie

[close]

[Cerveza mas fina]

Npd dont matter, D3 will do 3/5 million WW by then end of May

[maxy]

the holding company posted a 21.8 billion yen of net income ($273 million) with forecasting of 40 billion yen for the next period (2013)

operation income/loss results by segment:
Pachinco & Pachislots = 71 billion yen ($889.4 million) profit
Amusement Machine Sales (Arcade) = 7.4 billion yen ($92.8 million) profit
Amusement Center Operations = 355 million yen ($4.4 million) profit
Consumer business (Video Game Software) = 15.1 billion yen ($189 million) loss

this year the consumer business segment is losing quite a lot than usual! this is the worst performance since the merger (i have no idea if the re-structuring loss is included or not which is around $83.2 million)

Arcade Major titles:
StarHorse3 Season I　A NEW LEGEND BEGINS | 10.1 billion yen
WORLD CLUB Champion Football Series | 3.6 billion yen
SEGA NETWORK MAHJONG MJ5 | 2.8 billion yen
BORDER BREAK Series | 2.3 billion yen
SENGOKU TAISEN | 1.2 billion yen

Video Games Major titles
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 OlympicGames (Wii/3DS) | 3.28 million copy
Sonic Generations (PS3/360/PC/3DS) | 1.85 million copy
Virtua Tennis™ 4 (PS3/360/Wii/PSV/PC) | 1 million copy
Football Manager 2012 (PC/PSP) | 710 thousands of copies
Yakuza: Dead Souls | 550 thousands of copies

SEGA sold in total 17.2 million copy of games worldwide (6.1 in U.S / 8.3 in Europe / 2.8 in Japan)

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=37773017&postcount=1

Sega must be burning videogames money somewhere,almost $200 million loss 

[Takao]

Binary Domain was a gigantic bomba so yeah. It's disappointing to see this SEGA still bleeding money since this is the best something named SEGA has been post-Dreamcast.

[Momo]

Is there any funny accounting going on there or is that really what the sega-sammy video game numbers look like?

[Tasty]

Vita sold less than DSi last month. Between 50k and 83k.

Jeeze I even feel bad for laughing at that.

[Bebpo]

RGG of the End & Binary Domain doing even worse than usual Yakuza entries along with Vanquish bomba and stuff kind of leads me to suspect that people get enough quality shooting people in the face games from Western developers that they have no interest in playing Japanese shooters.  Yet most likely these Japanese shooters were made to appeal to the West that likes shooters. 

This gen... :'(

[Cerveza mas fina]

Yeah I was including digital in that.

I think it's actually over 3 million pre-orders if you count Annual Passes (which was a great invention from Blizz you got to hand it to them!)

[Trent Dole]

RGG of the End was a much softer seller than the usual installment, and Sonic's numbers keep going down.

The traditional console business just isn't worth it anymore.

They seem to realize that...
http://www.siliconera.com/2012/05/11/sega-to-shift-focus-to-digital-and-social-as-packaged-game-sales-decline/

Also Capcom sales targets for the year:

Resident Evil 6: 7 Million
DmC Devil May Cry: 2 Million
Dragon's Dogma: 1.5 Million
Lost Planet 3: 1.4 Million

Most of those seem possible, but do that many dig RE still? Damn.

[Takao]

2 million people bought ORC and that's a turd muffin. 7 million people buying a decent Resident Evil could happen.

[Cerveza mas fina]

Or 2 million less people will buy RE6 cause of ORC.

[Cerveza mas fina]

Vita sold less than DSi last month. Between 50k and 83k.

Jeeze I even feel bad for laughing at that.

Dude it's my job to test Vita games 

[Tasty]

Vita sold less than DSi last month. Between 50k and 83k.

Jeeze I even feel bad for laughing at that.

Dude it's my job to test Vita games 

Be proud, you're one of the few who will ever play them.

[Stoney Mason]

Vita sold less than DSi last month. Between 50k and 83k.

Jeeze I even feel bad for laughing at that.

It's only going to get worse for it in America. They released a product out of its time, and out of price range.

[Cerveza mas fina]

Vita sold less than DSi last month. Between 50k and 83k.

Jeeze I even feel bad for laughing at that.

Dude it's my job to test Vita games 

Be proud, you're one of the few who will ever play them.

Hehe so true. The games are quite good though to be honest.

[Momo]

Or 2 million less people will buy RE6 cause of ORC.

Something I am speculating will happen as well.

DmC Devil May Cry: 2 Million
Dragon's Dogma: 1.5 Million
Lost Planet 3: 1.4 Million

These seem reasonable, where is the crapcpomomcp that I know and ridicule?

[Tasty]

When are they releasing DmC? If it's anywhere near November they'll have trouble meeting 2mil I think.

How did the HD collection do?

[Joe Molotov]

I sold a billion copies of myself today

Are you retailer exclusive?

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Consoles are dying and the only alternative is playing shitty touch screen games with an IAP model.

Looks like the master race might end out ekeing out a victory afterall.

[Tasty]

Consoles are dying and the only alternative is playing shitty touch screen games with an IAP model.

Looks like the master race might end out ekeing out a victory afterall.

Same year as the Linux desktop. Which may actually happen if Windows 8 flops and Steam coming!

/cries

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

Consoles are dying and the only alternative is playing shitty touch screen games with an IAP model.

Looks like the master race might end out ekeing out a victory afterall.

Same year as the Linux desktop. Which may actually happen if Windows 8 flops and Steam coming!

/cries

With emulation, there's enough gaming to last me several lifetimes.

I just don't have much time for bullshit these days.  I want to sit down and play a game, sans bullshit.  I don't want to play on a touch screen just as I didn't want to waggle.  If none of the next generation consoles have the bullshit quota that I desire, I can walk away.  It's nothing to me to spend the rest of my gaming life playing MAME or Dolphin or PCSX2.

[Tasty]

Consoles are dying and the only alternative is playing shitty touch screen games with an IAP model.

Looks like the master race might end out ekeing out a victory afterall.

Same year as the Linux desktop. Which may actually happen if Windows 8 flops and Steam coming!

/cries

With emulation, there's enough gaming to last me several lifetimes.

I just don't have much time for bullshit these days.  I want to sit down and play a game, sans bullshit.  I don't want to play on a touch screen just as I didn't want to waggle.  If none of the next generation consoles have the bullshit quota that I desire, I can walk away.  It's nothing to me to spend the rest of my gaming life playing MAME or Dolphin or PCSX2.

Amen brother.

[Huff]

Consoles are dying and the only alternative is playing shitty touch screen games with an IAP model.

Looks like the master race might end out ekeing out a victory afterall.

Same year as the Linux desktop. Which may actually happen if Windows 8 flops and Steam coming!

/cries

With emulation, there's enough gaming to last me several lifetimes.

I just don't have much time for bullshit these days.  I want to sit down and play a game, sans bullshit.  I don't want to play on a touch screen just as I didn't want to waggle.  If none of the next generation consoles have the bullshit quota that I desire, I can walk away.  It's nothing to me to spend the rest of my gaming life playing MAME or Dolphin or PCSX2.

Amen brother.

You'd have to be willing to play non nintendo games first

[Tasty]

DOLPHIN'S ALL I NEED OK

I can't betray Shiggy-sama. :'(

[Cerveza mas fina]

True Gamestop story:

Customer: What's the difference between a PSP and a PS Vita?
Clerk: It's got touchscreen.

 

[Tasty]

True Gamestop story:

Customer: What's the difference between a PSP and a PS Vita?
Clerk: It's got touchscreen.

 

What, that's not true?

[Positive Touch]

DmC Devil May Cry: 2 Million
Dragon's Dogma: 1.5 Million
Lost Planet 3: 1.4 Million

lawl hope capcom employees are preparing for the storm

what in god's name makes them think they can hit those numbers? how many people out there are talking about how bad they wanted lost planet 3? how many even know dragon's dogma exists?

[Trent Dole]

Uh for LP3 none that I'm aware of, but DD has a pretty massive thread on SA for what that's worth.

[Tasty]

lawl hope capcom employees are preparing for the storm

There's a storm coming, Capcom. You and your friends better batten down the hatches because when it hits, you're all going to wonder how you ever thought you could live so large and leave so little for the rest of us.

[Trent Dole]

[Bebpo]

I just saw the April NPD thread on gaf

ugh, things are pretty bad all around.  I'm glad the few people here on the bore working at game companies are at the few stable ones that aren't going out of business anytime soon, because industry is looking grim. 

No room left for innovation, creativity, or originality outside the indie scene.  The main console scene is money + marketing + pray to the sky effect.

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

I just saw the April NPD thread on gaf

ugh, things are pretty bad all around.  I'm glad the few people here on the bore working at game companies are at the few stable ones that aren't going out of business anytime soon, because industry is looking grim. 

No room left for innovation, creativity, or originality outside the indie scene.  The main console scene is money + marketing + pray to the sky effect.

I think we're in the midst of a crash.  Maybe not a crash in the veins of the 1980s but they're crashing nevertheless.

[Huff]

I wasn't around for any of the crashes. Whats the main affect on the consumer?

[Great Rumbler]

I wasn't around for any of the crashes. Whats the main affect on the consumer?

A lot of companies went bankrupt and people started playing more Japanese games [Europeans started playing more home PC games].

[Tasty]

I don't think we're in a crash but things are definitely going to have to change, and the gen has dragged on for way too long.

We need a new gen, we need consoles to become as attractive for indies as iOS and Android are, and we need a big push into digital. It's unlikely the industry will expand much more, in fact I think it may contract to PS1/N64 levels (in terms of total console sold next gen), but that isn't a crash. That's just the casuals going to other things like smartphones. But there will always be a (fairly large, IMO) audience for dedicated gaming hardware.

The problem is that publishers need to reign in dev costs severely and start investing in a larger amount of new IPs and innovative games, and that's the only thing I don't really see happening until absolutely necessary unfortunately. It's more likely that publishers are going to crash IMO, devs will just find new avenues to make games and it's up to console makers to ensure that they can get on board.

Kickstarter and digital distribution have shone a light on how vestigial publishers are, and they need to adapt or die.

[Takao]

Will Avengers Wii-U/Kinect be this gen's ET? Ubisoft does ship a tonne of copies...

[Takao]

LP3 is shakiest IMO. It's coming off of the disappointing LP2, and from a development studio with a sketchy history.

[Bebpo]

Capcom is good at shipping things.

Those numbers should be fine.

Back when they wanted 10 million from Dragon's Dogma or something, that was lol; these are reasonable.  RE might be a bit of a stretch if RE is less popular these days than RE5 days.  But then again I'm sure retailers will stuff 7 million RE6 copies on the shelves considering how well RE5 sold.

[HyperZoneWasAwesome]

a PC port of Dragon's Dogma would go a long way towards helping that number.  In fact I'd be surprised if at least two of those three don't get PC ports eventually.

RE's number seems awfully damn optimistic, 5 might have met that number eventually, but that was coming off the universally beloved part 4, part 6 has a harder act to follow, as does Lost Planet 3.

[Momo]

LP3 will hit those numbers, of that I am fairly confident.

[Cerveza mas fina]

I don't think it's a crash, it's a shift.

F2P, mobile games, niche indie titles, casual games.

The market is diverse now with something there for everybody. As everybody has been saying for a long time now middle tier games and companies will go away. Thing is NPD won't track this and it might seem like a crash but it's not.

Personally I'm looking to get out of this business I think since the future of a QA lead and then manager with massive overtime and the uncertainty of how platforms perform is not something I want as a future family man. If I had some higher up job I could stay but now it's not looking good and I've been working in QA/Localisation for 4 years now.

[Cerveza mas fina]

Oh yes I agree on that totally, these companies in these new genres are new. It's not going to be the same as before.

EA will stay prob, Blizz Activision, Nintendo, Valve. Like the big boys of the movie industry.

The companies that will rule F2P, casual etc. I don't even know their names but they are probably already there Gala, Riot, Zynga etc.

[Great Rumbler]

Kickstarter/iOS future

[Tasty]

Nexon could be huge(r in the Western gaming industry) in the future. There were rumors they were gonna buy EA. Also Rumbler, I think if it's going to be Kickstarter plus anything, Republique shows it's going to be PC.

[tiesto]

I wasn't around for any of the crashes. Whats the main affect on the consumer?

A lot of companies went bankrupt and people started playing more Japanese games [Europeans started playing more home PC games].

IIRC people played a lot of Japanese games before the NES as well - Donkey Kong, Frogger, Pac Man, Space Invaders, Dig Dug, Galaga, etc. One of the only times when things were split evenly Japan/US.

That being said, if it means more people playing Japanese games, bring on the crash

[Joe Molotov]

I wasn't around for any of the crashes. Whats the main affect on the consumer?

A lot of companies went bankrupt and people started playing more Japanese games [Europeans started playing more home PC games].

IIRC people played a lot of Japanese games before the NES as well - Donkey Kong, Frogger, Pac Man, Space Invaders, Dig Dug, Galaga, etc. One of the only times when things were split evenly Japan/US.

That being said, if it means more people playing Japanese games, bring on the crash

This time Japanese gaming will probably die too; we'll all be playing like Middle Eastern games this time around, like Garshasp 2 and MARG BAR AMRIKA RAMPAGE ALLAH AKBAR!

[Trent Dole]

GARSHASP!

[Takao]

can't wait for unearthed 3: faris's deception

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

I don't think it's a crash, it's a shift.

F2P, mobile games, niche indie titles, casual games.

The market is diverse now with something there for everybody. As everybody has been saying for a long time now middle tier games and companies will go away. Thing is NPD won't track this and it might seem like a crash but it's not.

Personally I'm looking to get out of this business I think since the future of a QA lead and then manager with massive overtime and the uncertainty of how platforms perform is not something I want as a future family man. If I had some higher up job I could stay but now it's not looking good and I've been working in QA/Localisation for 4 years now.

I don't know bro, a 32% year over year contraction is indicative of more than just a simple shift.

[Stoney Mason]

We'll see about all the crash talk. I'll bookmark a few posts. 

[Olivia Wilde Homo]

We'll see about all the crash talk. I'll bookmark a few posts. 

Well, if all that is left after this "shift" is touch screen gaming, then it might as well be dead to me.

[Stoney Mason]

I have no doubt the market is indeed changing. Even fundamentally so. I'd just like somebody to define "crash" and what they actually mean by it so its not a generic term without any real meaning. Because I'm old enough to have been around and gaming for the "Atari Crash". So when people use that term I want to know exactly what terms they are defining.

[maxy]

Whimsy will save us