US Politics Thread |OT| SAD TRUMP

[benjipwns]

He wasn't given any kind of immunity.

1. Charges and Statutory Penalties
Your client agrees to plead guilty to the Criminal Information, a copy of which is attached, charging your client with making false statements to the Federal Bureau of Investigation in violation of 18 U .S.C. § I 00 I.
...
3. Additional Charges
In consideration of your client's guilty plea to the above offense, your client will not be further prosecuted criminally by this Office for the conduct set forth in the attached Statement of the Offense.

The Statement of the Offense lists literally nothing but his twice lying to the FBI in January 2017 (which are the two charges he pled guilty to) and his false statements on FARA filings in March 2017.

Where is he precluded from being charged, by the Special Counsel let alone Justice, for any other crimes he subsequently admits to or commits?

[Mandark]

I think it's way more likely that Flynn felt threatened by heavier prosecution and that the document doesn't necessarily include all the factors, than the idea he decided to cooperate with Mueller out of the goodness of his heart.

[Trent Dole]

https://twitter.com/hannahtraining/status/926640604594892800

[Huff]

Without the hysteria that I can't separate from all the twitter analysis (lulz)

Is this tax reform going to fuck me raw or not? 

[VomKriege]

Without the hysteria that I can't separate from all the twitter analysis (lulz)

Is this tax reform going to fuck me raw or not?

You'll be fine.

You're a billionaire like everyone here, right ?

[CatsCatsCats]

Getting rid of the state tax deduction will probably fuck me pretty well. I guess the mortgage interest deduction elimination is only for new mortgages? Trying to figure out how bad this is gonna be :/

[TakingBackSunday]

I’m just trying not to think about how screwed I am.

[Great Rumbler]

Screw McCain.

[CatsCatsCats]

This article helped me understand this shit a bit better

https://www.thebalance.com/trump-s-tax-plan-how-it-affects-you-4113968

[HardcoreRetro]

I found you another explanation.

[Joe Molotov]

Maybe we'll all die before the tax cuts expire.

[Brehvolution]

THe twitters are saying that not only is this tax bill easy to undo, but it makes it easier to increase spending on things Democrats like.

[Pwnz]

With the way things are going in the US I'm honestly expecting another great depression. And if not something that bad, another recession. But worse than the one that started in 2008.

I usually don't worry about this type of shit but... the fuckery is too immense right now.

It takes years for malinvestment to burst a bubble. Probably 2022 to 2024.

[Nola]

With the way things are going in the US I'm honestly expecting another great depression. And if not something that bad, another recession. But worse than the one that started in 2008.

I usually don't worry about this type of shit but... the fuckery is too immense right now.

It takes years for malinvestment to burst a bubble. Probably 2022 to 2024.

2009-2024 would honestly be one of the longest runs in the modern American economy without a recession.

1975, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2009.  Not that the past is always necessarily prelude, and the severity of 2009 probably alters things, but I would think 2024 is a pretty optimistic forecast for avoiding recession for 15 years.

Though it would seem like the hand grenades the Republicans are throwing into the economy have a very realistic chance of exploding when the Democrats are likely on the watch given current electoral trends. Which if that happens, god help us.

[FStop7]

This one slipped under the radar.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/10/14/trump-voter-fraud-commission-researcher-arrested-on-child-pornography-charges/

[Madrun Badrun]

https://www.theonion.com/breitbart-criticized-for-publishing-humanizing-profile-1820881338

Just because he goes to Olive Garden with his family doesn’t mean that he’s not actively promoting white genocide.

[CatsCatsCats]

Newsfeed that

[shosta]

So the tax bill eventually leads to a $1 trillion DEFICIT, not just an increase in the debt? Are they expecting to kill Obummercare anytime soon or something?

[Nola]

So the tax bill eventually leads to a $1 trillion DEFICIT, not just an increase in the debt? Are they expecting to kill Obummercare anytime soon or something?

If I’m not mistaken and they took it out without my knowledge, they are in the midst of dealing an incredible amount of damage to it by repealing the individual mandate as a gross way to offset the revenue loss from their donor class tax cuts.

[shosta]

If I’m not mistaken and they took it out without my knowledge, they are in the midst of dealing an incredible amount of damage to it by repealing the individual mandate as a gross way to offset the revenue loss from their donor class tax cuts.

They didn't take that out, but what does that have to do with revenue? A mandate costs nothing.

[Mandark]

The reasoning is that no individual mandate means fewer people signing up on the exchanges, thus less money paid out in subsidies.

[Mandark]

On Dec. 29, a transition adviser to Mr. Trump, K. T. McFarland, wrote in an email to a colleague that sanctions announced hours before by the Obama administration in retaliation for Russian election meddling were aimed at discrediting Mr. Trump’s victory. The sanctions could also make it much harder for Mr. Trump to ease tensions with Russia, “which has just thrown the U.S.A. election to him,” she wrote in the emails obtained by The Times.

It is not clear whether Ms. McFarland was saying she believed that the election had in fact been thrown. A White House lawyer said on Friday that she meant only that the Democrats were portraying it that way.

Hell of a team they put together. Remember after Flynn resigned, and their first choice for a replacement turned them down cause they refused to get rid of McFarland?

[Trurl]

So the tax bill eventually leads to a $1 trillion DEFICIT, not just an increase in the debt? Are they expecting to kill Obummercare anytime soon or something?

I believe that that number refers to the debt.  In other words it's the total cost of the bill as a package.

The tax bill expires in ten years, right?

[shosta]

I believe that that number refers to the debt.  In other words it's the total cost of the bill as a package.

The tax bill expires in ten years, right?

Okay, I looked it up and you're right. NYT and CNN keep reporting it as adding it to the deficit. They know what they're doing. If it's only $1 trillion in new debt over ten years who gives a shit? When did we suddenly start caring about the debt? Norway's been straddling over 10% deficit to GDP ratio for ten years and there's no end in sight to the socialist bacchanalia going on. Any concern about the debt now is just political opportunism.

[Trent Dole]

So the tax bill eventually leads to a $1 trillion DEFICIT, not just an increase in the debt? Are they expecting to kill Obummercare anytime soon or something?

The trillion was their positive idealized FUZZY MATHS version, really it'd do about 1.5 trillion, but considering all itss bizarre revisions of pages with Xs and lines through them along with indecipherable handwritten notes who the hell knows what it'll really do. They still have to do reconciliation with the house so whatever it is now isn't even what it'll end up being.

[kingv]

THe twitters are saying that not only is this tax bill easy to undo, but it makes it easier to increase spending on things Democrats like.

This is probably true.

Because the whole thing can theoretically be undid via  reconciliation, and you can preserve the middle class tax cuts, fleece the rich, and use some of the revenue on whatever the fuck you want, like infrastructure.

[Phoenix Dark]

https://www.theonion.com/breitbart-criticized-for-publishing-humanizing-profile-1820881338

Just because he goes to Olive Garden with his family doesn’t mean that he’s not actively promoting white genocide.

[naff]

good to see the Trump admin finally get something done. and of course it's a fuckin dumpster fire for america. another step forward for our deserved neo-liberal capitalist hegemony

GAFA

[thehunter116]

Socialism is starting to look mighty attractive right about now.

[Boogie]

http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/02/media/abc-news-brian-ross/index.html

Whoops.

And that’s why we keep our expectations in check as this investigation unfolds, folks.

[VomKriege]

I believe that that number refers to the debt.  In other words it's the total cost of the bill as a package.

The tax bill expires in ten years, right?

Okay, I looked it up and you're right. NYT and CNN keep reporting it as adding it to the deficit. They know what they're doing. If it's only $1 trillion in new debt over ten years who gives a shit? When did we suddenly start caring about the debt? Norway's been straddling over 10% deficit to GDP ratio for ten years and there's no end in sight to the socialist bacchanalia going on. Any concern about the debt now is just political opportunism.

Wait, isn't debt the sum of all deficits anyway in theory ? It's not 1:1 as I understand that the amount borrowed might exceed the deficit but still if this bill adds 1 trillion in debt it should mean more or less on average 100 billions more deficit each year which is not trivial.

Edit : Checking the source for the number seems to confirm that that the 1 trillion figure is the estimate of the impact on the federal budget (ie deficits) over ten years. And that's factoring in a positive offset of 400 billions due to the supposed growth of overall economy (and thus "better" fiscal earnings even at reduced rates) over the period.

See table here
https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=5045

[Madrun Badrun]

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/362938-in-apparent-shift-trump-tweets-he-fired-flynn-for-lying-to-fbi

[Great Rumbler]

Edit : Checking the source for the number seems to confirm that that the 1 trillion figure is the estimate of the impact on the federal budget (ie deficits) over ten years. And that's factoring in a positive offset of 400 billions due to the supposed growth of overall economy (and thus "better" fiscal earnings even at reduced rates) over the period.

That's pretty much how all bills are graded by the independent Congressional groups, as far as I know.

[shosta]

That's correct, but I thought they were saying the yearly deficit would go up by a trillion. Obama added $9T over 8 years so fuck it, I'll take one trillion any day. Our deficit is around 550bil, who cares?

[Great Rumbler]

who cares?

Republicans. Well, until recently, anyway.

[Nola]

If I’m not mistaken and they took it out without my knowledge, they are in the midst of dealing an incredible amount of damage to it by repealing the individual mandate as a gross way to offset the revenue loss from their donor class tax cuts.

They didn't take that out, but what does that have to do with revenue? A mandate costs nothing.

The assumption the GOP is under, and to an extent they will be right, though I personally think less so than they or the CBO project, that by removing the mandate fewer people that qualify for partial subsidies will sign up. Thus reducing the cost to the government to pay out.

Now on the other extreme end, if the GOP and CBO are way off and very few people that qualify for subsidies drop, and healthy non-subsidized people make up the pool of people that drop coverage due to the repeal, the cost for the government could theoretically increase and their already awful deficit projections will end up in reality being even worse.

[Nola]

Okay, I looked it up and you're right. NYT and CNN keep reporting it as adding it to the deficit. They know what they're doing. If it's only $1 trillion in new debt over ten years who gives a shit? When did we suddenly start caring about the debt? Norway's been straddling over 10% deficit to GDP ratio for ten years and there's no end in sight to the socialist bacchanalia going on. Any concern about the debt now is just political opportunism.

Because of what the debt is going to pay for and what it is likely to do to the long-term health of the economy?

I'm not a debt hawk, though there is some reason to believe when you approach 100% debt to GDP you start getting into some shaky territory, but I think the US being the reserve currency and the backbone of the international economy gives us more leeway. With that said, 1.5 trillion in debt for infrastructure, expansion of healthcare, or green energy investment? Yeah, I'm down. To pay for a grossly distortionary tax system that is going to transfer even more wealth from the poor and middle class to the wealthy? Who the fuck in their right mind(outside the obvious beneficiaries and dumb fuck Trump supporters) finds that a good investment lol?

[VomKriege]

That's correct, but I thought they were saying the yearly deficit would go up by a trillion. Obama added $9T over 8 years so fuck it, I'll take one trillion any day. Our deficit is around 550bil, who cares?

I mean if debt is irrelevant (which it is not IMHO) I'm sure those trillions of cost could find better use (pick your pet cause) than slashing taxes for the wealthy and companies.

[Nola]

[thehunter116]

http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/02/media/abc-news-brian-ross/index.html

Whoops.

And that’s why we keep our expectations in check as this investigation unfolds, folks.

I mean the correction doesn't change anything.

[Nola]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/937007006526959618

Surprised this gem wasn't mentioned today(or maybe it was and my lazy skim missed it).

Tell us more about how you knew Flynn lied to the FBI and three days after that asked Comey for a loyalty pledge 

spoiler (click to show/hide)

Of course the spin is that the tweet was written by his lawyer in what I guess they will claim was a Trump-like fuck up of judgement.

[close]

[VomKriege]

If only we listened to him and he got responsibilities.

[benjipwns]

You can always trust a guy who says his plan has accounted for all potential variables in a forty year timeline.

[Kara]

Without the hysteria that I can't separate from all the twitter analysis (lulz)

Is this tax reform going to fuck me raw or not?

Since this was passed in a non-transparent manner, it's possible there are some items on the individual side that we will regret down the line (e.g. fetuses can now have 529 plans, apparently the participation rates weren't low enough on those for Republicans), but the truly pernicious stuff is situated on the business side in the immediate future. We will have tax increases on low and middle income tax payers joining raising the debt ceiling in future games of political chicken, though.

Undoing the damage on the business side will take an extraordinary amount of political courage and vision. For reference the Senate Democrats make public statements like this of late.

[thehunter116]

You can always trust a guy who says his plan has accounted for all potential variables in a forty year timeline.

I'm glad someone is accounting for the molemen uprising of 2033. 

[agrajag]

What damage on the business side is this tax bill doing?


Also, this wouldn't go into effect for another year, right? I could still do all my itemized deductions on this coming up tax return?

[Nola]

 For reference the Senate Democrats make public statements like this of late.

   

[VomKriege]

What damage on the business side is this tax bill doing?


Also, this wouldn't go into effect for another year, right? I could still do all my itemized deductions on this coming up tax return?

Cutting the Corporate Tax from 35% to 20% is pretty major. Good luck ever coming back on that without being blackmailed on killing "growth" and "jobs".

[Kara]

Also, this wouldn't go into effect for another year, right? I could still do all my itemized deductions on this coming up tax return?

This is for 2018 and forward. Your 2017 tax return has not yet been filed.

[VomKriege]

To note, though, that corporate tax decreases are the norm currently in Western Europe too.

[Mandark]

Cutting the Corporate Tax from 35% to 20% is pretty major. Good luck ever coming back on that without being blackmailed on killing "growth" and "jobs".

I've been hearing for years that since the effective rate was so much lower than the statutory rate, you could lower it from 35% while closing loopholes, keeping it revenue-neutral while making it fairer across the board.

Instead they lowered the corporate rate and got rid of individual credits to (partially) offset it. The Republican party does not lack for chutzpah these days.

[shosta]

Cutting the Corporate Tax from 35% to 20% is pretty major. Good luck ever coming back on that without being blackmailed on killing "growth" and "jobs".

So you admit cutting the tax rate will create jobs

[VomKriege]

Cutting the Corporate Tax from 35% to 20% is pretty major. Good luck ever coming back on that without being blackmailed on killing "growth" and "jobs".

So you admit cutting the tax rate will create jobs

No it may or it may not. Even if the latter, I know for a fact lobbyists will argue that any additional regulation on companies would turn turn the USA into a third world country overnight.

Edit : Wake me up before Trump go go.

[Nola]

Cutting the Corporate Tax from 35% to 20% is pretty major. Good luck ever coming back on that without being blackmailed on killing "growth" and "jobs".

So you admit cutting the tax rate will create jobs

No it may or it may not. Even if the latter, I know for a fact lobbyists will argue that any additional regulation on companies would turn turn the USA into a third world country overnight.

Thats basically what they have signaled their plan is if the FAKE NEWS media's anonymous sources are to be believed.

Pass this shit now, campaign in 2020 on how Democrats want to kill jobs, raise taxes, and ruin the economy; that the only path forward is cutting social spending and making the tax cuts permenant. Seasoned with some dog whistle politics to rally the base. Which has basically been the strategy since Reagan.

If the Republicans fuck up and lose a majority somewhere, or crash the economy as they often do, you start the whole Paul Ryan deficit pearl clutching thing. Claim the only way to health is maintaining or giving more tax cuts for the rich middle-class.

But don't worry, Senate Democrats are on it this time with Reagan lionizing twitter memes at the ready. They're prepared to overcome the cycle this time.

[benjipwns]

You can always trust a guy who says his plan has accounted for all potential variables in a forty year timeline.

I'm glad someone is accounting for the molemen uprising of 2033. 

Well, something starts the debt share to begin plummeting at a higher rate around 2040 in his chart. If you have an explanation other than plundering the molemen's hidden treasury of riches I'd like to see a more legitimate white paper.

[VomKriege]

http://www.france24.com/en/20171203-usa-pulls-out-un-migrant-refugee-pact-trump-haley

Make America Isolated Again

[benjipwns]

The New York Declaration contains numerous provisions that are inconsistent with US immigration and refugee policies

That's probably accurate. Actually probably has been for at least 20 years or so.

And then like, the whole start of the last century when we did this the first time.

[benjipwns]

Two senior Justice Department officials have confirmed to Fox News that the department's Office of Inspector General is reviewing the role played in the Hillary Clinton email investigation by Peter Strzok, a former deputy director for counterintelligence at the FBI who was removed from the staff of Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III earlier this year, after Mueller learned that Strzok had exchanged anti-Trump texts with a colleague.

A source close to the matter said the OIG probe, which will examine Strzok's roles in a number of other politically sensitive cases, should be completed by "very early next year."

The task will be exceedingly complex, given Strzok's consequential portfolio. He participated in the FBI's fateful interview with Hillary Clinton on July 2, 2016 – just days before then-FBI Director James Comey announced he was declining to recommend prosecution of Mrs. Clinton in connection with her use, as secretary of state, of a private email server.

As deputy FBI director for counterintelligence, Strzok also enjoyed liaison with various agencies in the intelligence community, including the CIA, then led by Director John Brennan.

House investigators told Fox News they have long regarded Strzok as a key figure in the chain of events when the bureau, in 2016, received the infamous anti-Trump "dossier" and launched a counterintelligence investigation into Russian meddling in the election that ultimately came to encompass FISA surveillance of a Trump campaign associate.

"That’s right. Lock her up. That’s right. Lock her up. I’m going to tell you what, it’s unbelievable; it’s unbelievable. Yes; I use — I use #neverHillary; that’s what I use. I have called on Hillary Clinton, I have called on Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race because she, she put our nation’s security at extremely high risk with her careless use of a private e-mail server. Lock her up! Lock her up!" - General Michael T. Flynn, 2016

[benjipwns]

White House communications director Hope Hicks steamed President Trump's suits on the 2016 campaign trail while he was wearing them, according to an upcoming book on the campaign.

The book, "Let Trump Be Trump," is co-authored by former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and deputy campaign manager David Bossie. In it, the two detail what it was like on the campaign trail with Trump, including that among numerous other duties as press secretary, Hicks was in charge of steaming Trump's suits.

According to The Washington Post, which obtained an early copy of the book, Hicks would bring a steamer on Trump's campaign plane and make sure his suits were always pressed.

Trump would reportedly yell at Hicks to "get the machine!"

“And Hope would take out the steamer and start steaming Mr. Trump’s suit, while he was wearing it! She’d steam the jacket first and then sit in a chair in front of him and steam his pants," Lewandowski writes, according to the Post.

On one occasion, Hicks forgot the portable steamer, which was "a mistake she would never make again" the book says.

"G--dammit, Hope! How the hell could you forget the machine?" Trump reportedly yelled.

[kingv]

He wasn't given any kind of immunity.

1. Charges and Statutory Penalties
Your client agrees to plead guilty to the Criminal Information, a copy of which is attached, charging your client with making false statements to the Federal Bureau of Investigation in violation of 18 U .S.C. § I 00 I.
...
3. Additional Charges
In consideration of your client's guilty plea to the above offense, your client will not be further prosecuted criminally by this Office for the conduct set forth in the attached Statement of the Offense.

The Statement of the Offense lists literally nothing but his twice lying to the FBI in January 2017 (which are the two charges he pled guilty to) and his false statements on FARA filings in March 2017.

Where is he precluded from being charged, by the Special Counsel let alone Justice, for any other crimes he subsequently admits to or commits?

From what I have read, what usually happens in these agreements is that the fbi holds back some of the charges on purpose as leverage to ensure that the person actually cooperates.

This way, if they can’t or refuse to deliver what’s they agreed to in their proffer, the FBI comes back and indicts them on a whole heap of new shit.

This is done to keep the cooperating witness honest.

Otherwise they would get immunity and just back out.