so what's this talk about the US economy being 'due' for a recession
like how does this stuff work
apparently it's been a while, and these things happen in cycles?
There's an accepted economic logic to it but it's really more of people repeating and extrapolating historical trends. Basically a recession (by the technical definition) has occurred at least once a decade in every decade in U.S. history. We haven't had one in the 2010s as the "Great Recession" technically ended in 2009.
The longest period between prior U.S. recessions was ten years, between the 1990-91 recession and 2001 recession. (Though it should be pointed out that seemingly the rest of our "half" of the planet had a major or near economic crisis in the late 1990s. Including like seven of our top ten trading partners.)
Another recession would lead to anarchy. Europe has just crawled out of the hole. This year we're finally seeing some economic improvement but all governments are broke.
- Ukraine would probably explode first as it solely depends on outside help
- Brexit plus recession would push the English over the edge
- The Middle East fresh from the Syrian war and Arab spring would see another shortage of food and medicine
- The Russian state, solely floating on the oil that isn't sanctioned would sink like a rock
- China, leveraged to hell and back to reach their economic goals would be thrown into a tailspin
- The Saudi's depending on the diversification of their economy with huge investments to offset their lower oil income would be fucked
- Venezuela would finally go down the tubes (and takes the rest of South America with it)
- North Korea would literally starve to death
- Japan is already dead
A global economic recession within in the next 2 years would be a biblical event.
