Worst case scenario projection by scientists for France (including a British one, Neil Ferguson, that has been consulted by several euro countries) presented to Macron before his address this week : 300k to 500k deaths, 30k to 100k concurrent patients needing intensive care at peak. Officially there's a capacity of 5000 beds for reanimation and 7000 for ICU.
That's a guess in case no measures were taken and with the worst variables.
If those reports are accurate, you would imagine it's the same ballpark for Italy, Spain, Germany and the UK.
The problem seems to be that the 'real' treatment in the worst cases requires a prolonged induced coma with a tube inserted into the lungs for roughly 14 days.
While other emergency treatments are often way shorter. (back when I had my first Asthma attack I needed a breathing apparatus for an afternoon and that was like a 10/10 in the scale of severity of asthma attacks.
However, a big percentage also has flu like issues for 3 - 5 days and is perfectly healthy after rest and quarantine.
The lock down is all about gaining some time to figure things out and hopefully reducing the spread but also reducing the need for other types of treatments (less car accidents, stabbings etc.)
The UK's idea of herd like immunity might either work or make it much worse killing off millions.
But without a vaccine there's not much else you can do but weather the storm and hope it gets better or do a total lock down.
Thank you good guy China for silencing the whistle blowers and allowing this to spread worldwide <(^_^)>
