Author Topic: Corona Thread |OT| Nu variant, who dis?  (Read 1428000 times)

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bluemax

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OnlyRegret

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4921 on: April 02, 2020, 09:09:44 PM »
Some fun food for thought I learned about. You can attempt to guess true infections based off a set of estimated or known parameters. For example, with a known numbers of deaths alongside an estimate infection-to-death average you can plug in mortality rates to estimate infection counts.

For example, using the estimate of 15 days from infection-to-death I saw, and using the roughly 1k deaths yesterday, you plug in estimated mortality rates.
So at 0.5% mortality you'd estimate 1000/0.005 or 200,000 newly infected 15 days ago. Or at 2% there would've been 50,000 newly infected 15 days ago.

Mortality time varies and these are all estimates, but fun food for thought. Once deaths get high, you're looking at a response that massively lags what's happening at the presence. Making it utterly useless.
Meanwhile, people wanting to act when the daily death rate reaches a high value are subsequently planning action well into an unfolding catastrophe.

Yeah, that's probably still the most interesting approach with the data quality we currently have. There are some twitter accounts that calculated actual cases vs a range of unknown cases calculated the way just described. Mainly based on the mortality in South Korea since they apparently had pretty thorough testing. The comparison between different countries still is difficult, because different countries count deaths differently, different age structure, health care and regional overload. Still this approach shows most of the time early if a country is running into problems.

@ VomKriege: High death count in France is due to the not yet counted death cases in retirement homes?

The complicating factors alone will ensure pretty drastic mortality variation.

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4922 on: April 02, 2020, 09:10:24 PM »
Depends on what research shows, particularly further studies on Chinese stats and follow-up bloodwork of Chinese recoveries after the 3 or whatever month mark.

I'm hoping the Oxford model turns out to be correct.



It may be wishful thinking, but man, that would be sweet right now..

thisismyusername

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4923 on: April 02, 2020, 09:27:07 PM »
(I haven't fact checked this, so Benji can. I'm just posting because Troll2OHMYGAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWD.gif)

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1245787069076602880


bluemax

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Tripon

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Tripon

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Potato

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4928 on: April 03, 2020, 01:45:07 AM »
Depends on what research shows, particularly further studies on Chinese stats and follow-up bloodwork of Chinese recoveries after the 3 or whatever month mark.

I'm hoping the Oxford model turns out to be correct.



It may be wishful thinking, but man, that would be sweet right now..
Gonna be interesting when the 15 minute fingerprick tests are being used widespread to test the general public.

This is going to sound weird, but I have had a strange heaviness in my chest for a week or two, but otherwise I feel fine. Most likely just psychosomatic, but it would be pretty cool to find out that I've had it all along and had no symptoms and can go back to a more normal life.
Spud

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4929 on: April 03, 2020, 01:48:08 AM »
I didn't know you were psychosomatic, you seemed like a normal guy to me

Tripon

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4930 on: April 03, 2020, 01:50:03 AM »

OnlyRegret

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4931 on: April 03, 2020, 02:15:58 AM »
2/3 infected seems way too high

anyway, some reading re: obesity and complications with respiratory tracts
https://www.reddit.com/r/TrueOffMyChest/comments/ftnh71/healthy_fat_is_not_a_thing_coronavirus_is_further/

VomKriege

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4932 on: April 03, 2020, 03:08:09 AM »
Germany is absolutely on the same trend as Italy and France for rising daily death tolls, it "just" started later (not to say it's only luck, no hasty judgement here). But they might turn the curve and stabilize at much lower levels thanks to that.

If France is stabilizing, it pretty much followed Italy, just shaving a handful of days off that curve thanks to the lockdown being a bit earlier by a few days (relatively to each country progression). Not insignificant because that's maybe 100 or 200 fatalities a day less... But I still think Macron could have escalated much faster and follow immediately in Italian footsteps rather than closing schools then slowly ramping up four days later to current levels of restriction. Alas...
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VomKriege

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4933 on: April 03, 2020, 04:45:39 AM »
And for those interested, to put some perspective on the French nursing homes numbers : total population in EHPADs ("Housing institution for non autonomous elder people)" is approx 728k in France.
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VomKriege

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4934 on: April 03, 2020, 06:05:37 AM »
Singapore enables a lockdown, too many cases they can't determine the origin of... They did a good job at containment but I guess there's no winning against a virus like that.

The two big national French grades will not exams this year, they will be validated using only the average score of students for the school year.
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Fifstar

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4935 on: April 03, 2020, 07:23:25 AM »
Germany is absolutely on the same trend as Italy and France for rising daily death tolls, it "just" started later (not to say it's only luck, no hasty judgement here). But they might turn the curve and stabilize at much lower levels thanks to that.

Issuing the lockdown a week later than france might have been a very bad decision. And our age structure is even older than france and about the same as italy. Expect to hear more stories of massinfected retirement homes from germany as well. So yeah, the next two weeks will be rough for germany.
Gulp

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4936 on: April 03, 2020, 07:27:45 AM »
So our company is in the news for cutting wages and putting staff on furlough after taking a substantial loan out. Staff aren't happy.

VomKriege

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4937 on: April 03, 2020, 07:31:49 AM »
So our company is in the news for cutting wages and putting staff on furlough after taking a substantial loan out. Staff aren't happy.

Privatize profits, outsource losses to the public.  :isthis

I don't know if they mandated it by law but I believe that in France large companies that receive loans/bailouts are told "strongly" they need to cap upper management wages and forego dividends for the moment.
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Nintex

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4938 on: April 03, 2020, 07:32:42 AM »
Depends on what research shows, particularly further studies on Chinese stats and follow-up bloodwork of Chinese recoveries after the 3 or whatever month mark.

I'm hoping the Oxford model turns out to be correct.



It may be wishful thinking, but man, that would be sweet right now..
Gonna be interesting when the 15 minute fingerprick tests are being used widespread to test the general public.

This is going to sound weird, but I have had a strange heaviness in my chest for a week or two, but otherwise I feel fine. Most likely just psychosomatic, but it would be pretty cool to find out that I've had it all along and had no symptoms and can go back to a more normal life.
I had a prolonged sore throat in January, which is really rare as far as my usual flu symptoms go. I recall making some posts here about feeling sick despite getting a flu shot.
Co-workers and friends also complained about the same thing. A flu that they recovered very slowly from, feeling fatigued and a sore throat.

Some honey in my tea, steam showers and regular flu and fever drugs fixed it for me back then. But ever since COVID-19 became a thing I keep wondering if I already had some mild form of it.
🤴

VomKriege

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4939 on: April 03, 2020, 07:47:27 AM »
I'm not super hopeful we'll find out that large segments of the population already had it, that some sort of herd immunity is well underway and that it was somehow doing massive rounds in November or whatever. Even with all the casual dismissiveness, I think health professionals would have noticed if pneumonia cases started getting out of order while China was battling with the disease.

It doesn't seem that the stats from the countries who tested more per capita point to this (though it's still a limited sample and not exactly a random sample) so far, but maybe I'm wrong.

Even assuming the death rate is something like 0,1% in reality it works back to 10 millions infected in Italy and Spain at the moment which is respectively... 15% and 25% of the population ?
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Beezy

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4940 on: April 03, 2020, 08:16:03 AM »
anyway, some reading re: obesity and complications with respiratory tracts
https://www.reddit.com/r/TrueOffMyChest/comments/ftnh71/healthy_fat_is_not_a_thing_coronavirus_is_further/
I've been wondering about this and this seems to confirm my thoughts. A lot of people in the US are really fucked if they get this virus.

VomKriege

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4941 on: April 03, 2020, 09:10:22 AM »
The Paris Police Prefect had to apologize for saying (paraphrasing) "It doesn't take a genius to know that the people that are ill today are those that didn't respect the lockdown rules early on."

 :bluesteel
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Ghoul

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4942 on: April 03, 2020, 09:21:47 AM »
So our company is in the news for cutting wages and putting staff on furlough after taking a substantial loan out. Staff aren't happy.

Privatize profits, outsource losses to the public.  :isthis

I don't know if they mandated it by law but I believe that in France large companies that receive loans/bailouts are told "strongly" they need to cap upper management wages and forego dividends for the moment.

They’re being very careful in what they say the loan is for. I wish I could link it but ehh I know people are watching out for stuff being posted at the moment after people commented as directors. Gotta protect my ass at this point as it looks like they’re looking for reasons to lay off staff

VomKriege

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4943 on: April 03, 2020, 09:30:16 AM »
Maybe I'm premature but BoJo and his cabinet failed the UK.
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TakingBackSunday

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4944 on: April 03, 2020, 10:58:10 AM »
if we have to stay at home for the rest of the year  :dead

I can't take that shit
püp

VomKriege

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4945 on: April 03, 2020, 10:58:57 AM »
Healthcare head of French Great East region confident they'll curb the peak "before April 25th" even if they're walking the razor's edge still.

6266 have been freed of French prisons (under a variety of parole regimes), bringing down the inmate population down to 66k+. One inmate and one guard died of COVID19 so far, positive cases are not too worrying for the moment.

And just like that, in two weeks, half of the prison overcrowding that has been going on for years has been slashed...

Some associations are pushing to loosen further conditions so that more people can be let go.
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Tripon

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Great Rumbler

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4948 on: April 03, 2020, 12:53:21 PM »
Update on Oklahoma stats:

Quote
COVID-19 Oklahoma Test Results

Positive (In-State): 879
Positive (Out-of-State): 2
Negative*: 1,265
Hospitalizations: 257
Deaths: 34

*Negative testing results are only from the State Public Health Laboratory and do not include private laboratory negative results.
dog

Flannel Boy

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Madrun Badrun

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4950 on: April 03, 2020, 01:02:26 PM »
Not surprising, really don't get all this stink about not releasing the models. 

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4951 on: April 03, 2020, 01:11:48 PM »
Those US numbers are crazy. It's gonna hit a million before you know it. Well, no doubt it is in the millions already, but in terms of reported cases.

Edit: That said, the US had a slow start, but they are testing more than anyone right now. That may account for some of it.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 01:16:59 PM by Leadbelly »

Madrun Badrun

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4952 on: April 03, 2020, 01:16:18 PM »
Coronavirus: Trump asks medical supply firm 3M to stop selling N95 respirators to Canada

https://globalnews.ca/news/6772979/coronavirus-3m-n95-respirators-trump-canada/

Quote
U.S.-based company 3M said Friday that it has been asked by the Trump administration not to supply N95 respirators to Canada amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.

U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the Minnesota-based company to produce and sell as many medical-grade masks as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) says it needs. He invoked the Defence Production Act in order to speed up the distribution of masks.

“The administration also requested that 3M cease exporting respirators that we currently manufacture in the United States to the Canadian and Latin American markets,” a statement from the company read.

Flannel Boy

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Nintex

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4954 on: April 03, 2020, 01:37:20 PM »
Coronavirus: Trump asks medical supply firm 3M to stop selling N95 respirators to Canada

https://globalnews.ca/news/6772979/coronavirus-3m-n95-respirators-trump-canada/

Quote
U.S.-based company 3M said Friday that it has been asked by the Trump administration not to supply N95 respirators to Canada amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.

U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the Minnesota-based company to produce and sell as many medical-grade masks as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) says it needs. He invoked the Defence Production Act in order to speed up the distribution of masks.

“The administration also requested that 3M cease exporting respirators that we currently manufacture in the United States to the Canadian and Latin American markets,” a statement from the company read.

"Hello this is 3M, how can I help you?"

"You only sell to Mr. Trump now 3M, you hear? Don't make us come over there and break a few bones Paulie. You'll be sorry if you keep selling to these goddamn Canadians wise guy"

"I'm sorry, who is this? This is the 3M company service desk, Alice speaking, there is no Paulie working here sir"

"Yeah, that's what I would say smug. Paulie is hiding there ain't he, tell that coward he better get those masks for Mr Trump beautiful or he'll be sorry you hear"
🤴

Great Rumbler

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4955 on: April 03, 2020, 01:38:31 PM »


:goty
dog

james

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4956 on: April 03, 2020, 01:44:05 PM »
https://twitter.com/NatureMedicine/status/1246036430629081096

I for one am shocked that a medical device designed to prevent the spread of infectious diseases is in fact useful in preventing the spread of infectious diseases.

Let's line up all the idiots who said otherwise and lobotomize them
:O

TakingBackSunday

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4957 on: April 03, 2020, 01:48:08 PM »
(Image removed from quote.)

:goty

at least the deaths don't seem that bad...

who am I kidding, that shit sucks
püp

Flannel Boy

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4958 on: April 03, 2020, 01:51:51 PM »
(Image removed from quote.)

:goty

It's probably a lot worse.



edit: What's up with Cali?


Flannel Boy

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4959 on: April 03, 2020, 02:06:05 PM »
Cali is a bit of a logistical nightmare I imagine;  massively spread out population wise.
Never been west of Winnipeg, but don't most Californians live in urban centers (95%)? Over half the population live in just two metro areas.

Raist

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4960 on: April 03, 2020, 02:25:43 PM »
https://twitter.com/NatureMedicine/status/1246036430629081096

I for one am shocked that a medical device designed to prevent the spread of infectious diseases is in fact useful in preventing the spread of infectious diseases.

Let's line up all the idiots who said otherwise and lobotomize them


I don't think anyone argued that face masks worn by people who are infected and symptomatic are useless. They're obviously helpful, which is what this article shows.

stufte

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Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4962 on: April 03, 2020, 02:34:49 PM »
I notice Ethan is back to making videos again. I guess because being stuck at home means he has nothing else to do. lol


stufte

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4963 on: April 03, 2020, 02:45:13 PM »
I notice Ethan is back to making videos again. I guess because being stuck at home means he has nothing else to do. lol



holy shit, the religious cunts at the end of that video need to be wiped off the face of the fucking earth.

Leadbelly

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4964 on: April 03, 2020, 02:49:20 PM »
Yeah. Proper snake oil salesmen.

Pissy F Benny

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4965 on: April 03, 2020, 02:54:49 PM »
Can't say I'm looking forward to the corona war that will come from this  :existential
(ice)

Madrun Badrun

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4966 on: April 03, 2020, 03:02:28 PM »
Ontario finally seems to actually be closing non-essential buinesses.  Really stupid it took this long. 

Madrun Badrun

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4967 on: April 03, 2020, 03:22:51 PM »
I'm on the email list of a hospital and the university hospital network due to stuff I did during my masters.  I'm getting like an email every minute from either of these two places and they can get pretty worrisome.  The last one was a mask distribution plan with the underline 'you get two masks a day'.

Madrun Badrun

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4968 on: April 03, 2020, 03:30:22 PM »
Sorry man



Quote
Detroit — A city bus driver who complained recently in an online video that a passenger had openly coughed on his bus amid the coronavirus pandemic has died from the respiratory illness.

Jason Hargrove, 50, died Wednesday of COVID-19, according to the head of the city's bus driver union, Glenn Tolbert, on Thursday.

In his March 21 Facebook post (EDITOR'S NOTE: Contains obscene language), Hargrove spoke heatedly about a woman, whom he believed to be in her 50s or 60s, coughing openly on the bus without covering her mouth.

Madrun Badrun

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4969 on: April 03, 2020, 03:35:32 PM »
'residents'

EchoRin

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4970 on: April 03, 2020, 03:44:47 PM »
Looks rusty as shit. Be ethical and at least provide a metal sheet that is properly sharpened.

Nintex

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4971 on: April 03, 2020, 03:47:43 PM »
New guidelines for the ICU in case we run out of beds. So you guys get a primer of what the next proposals of Jared Voldemort will include.
It works in stages, we're at stage 2 and in our country it starts to get bad from stage 3.

Patients no longer admitted to the ICU in stage 3:
- Heart failure
- Severe trauma
- Heavy burns
- Severe brain damage
- Cancer (spread out)
- Organ failures
- Failing immune system (or immune diseases)
- People who are wholly depended in their daily care (CFS score 7 (see chart below))
- Terminally ill

If capacity gets even lower, we move to stage 4:
- Patients that match the stage 3 criteria already admitted to the ICU will no longer be treated
- Patients that require both a lung and heart device
- Patients who get a heart attack will no longer be reanimated in the ICU
- Patients who are not in need of daily care but do have less reserves compared to others no matter their age (CFS-score 5)



So in theory you could be admitted as a stage 3, it moves to stage 4 and you lose your place in the ICU.
Grim and dark stuff.

Of course these directions were published just to inform and there's no need to panic ha ha ha
🤴


BIONIC

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4973 on: April 03, 2020, 04:20:23 PM »
But I was told death panels were a right wing conspiracy theory

Margs

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4974 on: April 03, 2020, 04:37:00 PM »
And over half of Washington lives in 1 metro area, and nearly all of New York is in one metro area.   

Not saying it's the only reason, but it's certainly much more spread out than the other states at the top of those lists.

They have ~75 cities with at least 100k people;  Texas, a larger state, has less than 30.

Wait, what? Once you go out past the Westchester/Rockland exurban limit, things are really spread out and rural (especially in the Adirondacks), with the occasional mid-sized postindustrial city/suburbs (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany) and some other small cities (Corning, Lake George, Batavia, Plattsburgh).

You might be thinking of Jersey - it's the most "urbanized" state, since you have both the NYC and Philly suburbs taking up the majority of the state. (Though there are still rural areas in western and southern Jersey)
^_^

brawndolicious

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4975 on: April 03, 2020, 04:42:59 PM »
Man even your bureaucrats are direct at explaining exactly how your medical system will fail. This is why you guys have enough time to go crazy with banking and flowers.

Madrun Badrun

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« Reply #4976 on: April 03, 2020, 04:53:56 PM »
I'd hate to be a Dutch Twijfel right now, knowing that their time is coming. 

BisMarckie

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« Reply #4977 on: April 03, 2020, 05:26:02 PM »
German football league announced today that 13 teams might go into administration.

TFW your team was already broke before the Corona crisis :klob

Madrun Badrun

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4978 on: April 03, 2020, 05:36:47 PM »
Ontario

Number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19   462
Number of patients in ICU7 with COVID-19    194
Number of patients in ICU7 on a ventilator with COVID-19 140

yikes

Flannel Boy

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Re: Corona Thread |OT| Money-printer goes BRRRR
« Reply #4979 on: April 03, 2020, 05:42:42 PM »
Ontario

Number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19   462
Number of patients in ICU7 with COVID-19    194
Number of patients in ICU7 on a ventilator with COVID-19 140

yikes

I believe the mortality rate for patients on a ventilator with COVID-19 is at least 50 percent, so Ontario's death toll will soon double (it's at 57).