Author Topic: The Economy |OT| Guess I'll Just Die?  (Read 29592 times)

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shosta

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The Economy |OT| Guess I'll Just Die?
« on: February 27, 2020, 03:26:13 PM »
:nope 2 Great 2 Depressing

 :ohyeah Great and the Depressing: Yield Curve Drift

Flannel Boy is going to lose the bet  :heyman
« Last Edit: August 02, 2020, 08:05:14 PM by shosta »
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OnlyRegret

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Re: econ (news and theory)
« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2020, 03:27:39 PM »
Can't believe you unleashed a bioweapon on the hapless to win a forum bet. That's amazing.

Great Rumbler

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Re: econ (news and theory)
« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2020, 03:49:25 PM »
Shosta is now a Bond villain.
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Flannel Boy

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Re: econ (news and theory)
« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2020, 03:57:31 PM »
What shosta won't do for $100.

spoiler (click to show/hide)
:shh
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recursivelyenumerable

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QED

TEEEPO

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Re: econ (news and theory)
« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2020, 08:42:13 PM »
that feels when you changed your entire family's tsp to bonds the week before as well as hedged all of our options :rejoice

recursivelyenumerable

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Re: econ (news and theory)
« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2020, 11:51:56 PM »
thanks for starting this thread but why couldn't you have just titled it like I suggested  :brazilcry
QED

shosta

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Re: econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2020, 11:56:38 PM »
you don't own me! you don't own me!
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Himu

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2020, 10:17:04 AM »
Can't wait for Depress Five.

But everyone knows Yield Curve Drift is the best one.
IYKYK

Flannel Boy

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2020, 10:52:00 AM »
Now I don't feel bad about having no money. I would have just lost it in the stock market anyway! :brain

Flannel Boy

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2020, 11:02:04 AM »
WTI Crude   is at $44.17

Canadian Crude Index is at 30.40

North America's oil industry. . . :gddr5

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2020, 11:51:35 AM »
cheaper petrol :rejoice :rejoice :rejoice
(ice)

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shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #13 on: February 28, 2020, 03:44:30 PM »
Kudlow: "Stocks look pretty cheap to me" :dead
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kingv

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2020, 04:16:24 PM »
I’m buying, are you buying? -Larry Kudlow.

who is ted danson?

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #15 on: February 28, 2020, 04:28:58 PM »
Buy high, sell low. Now is the time to start dumping all the shit you bought with Robin Hood infinite margin back in November.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2020, 04:35:50 PM »
*****

TEEEPO

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #17 on: February 28, 2020, 04:44:33 PM »
cash-out refinancing when the market bottoms out :mouf

shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2020, 04:54:15 PM »
I'm just waiting for that credit crunch as speculative finance practices go bad and over-leveraging multiplies the pain. Maybe by the end of next month.
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TEEEPO

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #19 on: February 28, 2020, 05:04:45 PM »
quantitative trump easing 2.0

shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #20 on: February 28, 2020, 05:08:26 PM »
I can't imagine how they're going to try to justify that when banks already have record reserves :heh
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TEEEPO

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #21 on: February 28, 2020, 05:16:36 PM »
imagine, a trillion-dollar coin minted with trump's face :lawd

what more justification would you need?

shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #22 on: February 29, 2020, 02:49:45 AM »
Shost, was Shaikh worth reading in the end? I downloaded a sample on Kindle and it looked like a lot of neo ricardian formula dork shit. I'm not opposed to that but it's not a priority :trumps
It really depends. This is 800 pages of dense and often tedious material. I would say it took 30 hours of my life away, and that's even with skimming a couple of chapters. Some of the earlier chapters especially get into that "formula dork shit" you're talking about; my eyes glazed over during the chapter on reducing prices to dated quantities of labor. That said, I was very impressed with the thoroughness of the presentation and especially the format: every chapter presents a topic or problem, provides a brief overview of what various schools propose (usually the dominant neoclassical and post-keynesian treatments), presents what he calls the "classical" version, and then very often offers convincing and systematic empirical evidence. As a post-keynesian fanboy it was kind of sad seeing authors I like being shit all over but the targets are usually justified... profits are not stable markups, there is no such thing as "degree of monopoly power", there's no correlation between concentration and profits, capacity utilization is not a free variable, and so on. There is also a huge amount of historical content in here that was very interesting to read. As for original content, this is by no means thorough, but off the top of my head, I enjoyed the consistent and empirical microfoundations, the detailed analysis of Ricardo's comparative advantage (and why Krugman sucks), the return of the Philips Curve :leon, and a modification of Harrodian growth theory that doesn't have the knife edge problem.

It's severely lacking in some serious respects, though. For one thing there isn't any treatment of some of the most interesting debates in modern economics. There isn't anything on financialization, his whole chapter on interest rates is literally irrelevant for economies with central banks, for all the gloating about how much better he is than post-keynesians there was nothing on the dynamics of debt, and he wrote nothing about secular stagnation even though this was released in 2016, 5 years after it was apparent we were in such a state. So all that buildup for so little delivery imo.

anyway tbh don't read it, it's a big waste of time. he should have just written a straight book about his philosophy without the polemic or debate or the entire chapter saying chartalism is wrong.

one final thought. He says in interviews that he wanted to completely redo development economics but before he could analyze capitalism in the periphery he had to analyze capitalism in the developed world. So last week I emailed him and I politely asked if he was working on a book on development economics. Instead he linked me to some paper he wrote two years ago and it was just general shit he cribbed from his book. Motherfucker! :rage
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Great Rumbler

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #23 on: February 29, 2020, 09:44:43 AM »
tfw when you have no stonks:

:win
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james

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #24 on: March 03, 2020, 10:58:57 AM »
Someone make a movie titled THE STONK MARKET
:O

recursivelyenumerable

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #25 on: March 06, 2020, 01:21:03 AM »
I've been reading about the formation and development of both Koreas as well as industrialization efforts across capitalist and socialist history and i thought this was alright. I love Palladium because it's one of those confused publications that tries *really* hard not to take a stance on the dollar vs. hammer-and-sickle divide and occasionally you get some good stuff and other times you get some half assed bullshit.

https://palladiummag.com/2020/02/12/how-state-capacity-drives-industrialization/

i sort of like palladium even tho it's like 47% crypto-NRx
QED

shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #26 on: March 08, 2020, 06:08:35 PM »
Quote
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 900 points. The S&P 500 futures also indicated a 3.5% drop at the open on Monday.
holy shit, this week is going to be awesome :lawd

oil price shock gonna tear people a new one
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OnlyRegret

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #27 on: March 08, 2020, 06:09:53 PM »
RIP my province, again

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #28 on: March 08, 2020, 06:41:39 PM »
Quote
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 900 points. The S&P 500 futures also indicated a 3.5% drop at the open on Monday.
holy shit, this week is going to be awesome :lawd

oil price shock gonna tear people a new one

WTI at $32.94?   :stahp

How much to buy out of the bet?

OnlyRegret

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #29 on: March 08, 2020, 06:47:51 PM »
Please never bet with Shotty again you little shit.

Flannel Boy

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #30 on: March 08, 2020, 06:49:09 PM »
Please never bet with Shotty again you little shit.
???
He's the one who fucking unleashed this.

OnlyRegret

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #31 on: March 08, 2020, 06:50:05 PM »
Him and his Marxian voodoo

shosta

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Tripon

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #33 on: March 08, 2020, 06:53:09 PM »
:nope 2 Great 2 Depressing

 :ohyeah Great and the Depressing: Yield Curve Drift

Flannel Boy is going to lose the bet  :heyman

Reopen the Bad News Thread!  :steiner

Flannel Boy

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #34 on: March 08, 2020, 06:53:50 PM »
Him and his Marxian voodoo
If the bet were for a substantial amount, he would have caused a giant asteroid to strike the Earth.

shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #35 on: March 08, 2020, 06:54:15 PM »
Reopen the Bad News Thread!  :steiner
That was clearly a thread about this coming recession and you turned it into a repository for news articles about grown men raping babies
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Tripon

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #36 on: March 08, 2020, 06:58:53 PM »
Reopen the Bad News Thread!  :steiner
That was clearly a thread about this coming recession and you turned it into a repository for news articles about grown men raping babies

I actually had to look at what I posted, and that was only 2 posts that had evil men preying on minors . I apologize for making you feel bad tho.

shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #37 on: March 08, 2020, 07:14:41 PM »
Quote
Crisafulli noted that oil is "critical" to the U.S. economy. Many people are employed by the industry, and highly leveraged oil and gas companies are key to the fixed income market.

"The sector is like the 'FANG' of credit, esp. high yield, given the enormous amount of debt it has outstanding," he said.

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Nintex

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #38 on: March 08, 2020, 07:32:31 PM »
Saudi's are trying to strong arm the Russians. This could get ugly really fast.

Save us Larry  :shaking
« Last Edit: March 08, 2020, 07:44:08 PM by Nintex »
🤴

Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #39 on: March 09, 2020, 02:57:37 AM »
Another rate cut incoming? Is it time for the revival of 'good times' having people knock on your door to ask if you are interested in selling your house?  :money

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #40 on: March 09, 2020, 09:41:51 AM »
Dow −1,884.88 (7.29%)

BIONIC

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #41 on: March 09, 2020, 09:48:12 AM »
Margs

Occam

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #42 on: March 09, 2020, 09:51:26 AM »
Right Now
A 7 percent drop in U.S. shares triggered an automatic trading halt.
504

EightBitNate

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #43 on: March 09, 2020, 09:57:51 AM »
I don’t know what this means but it makes me feel panic
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 10:16:56 AM by EightBitNate »

shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #44 on: March 09, 2020, 10:27:46 AM »
Chaos!

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Flannel Boy

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #45 on: March 09, 2020, 11:13:17 AM »
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1237024549046288385


This is great for people staying home because of coronavirus. Too bad it will bankrupts all the small shale companies, and put oil and gas workers out of jobs! Think of the cheap gas you don't need and won't buy!

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que

shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #47 on: March 09, 2020, 11:56:26 AM »
Independent big rig drivers? ...Oh no!

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Tripon

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shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #50 on: March 11, 2020, 02:23:47 PM »
How much to buy out of the bet?
I'll let you get out of it now for $75 :trumps
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shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Wuhan Drift
« Reply #51 on: March 11, 2020, 09:42:22 PM »
I'm just waiting for that credit crunch as speculative finance practices go bad and over-leveraging multiplies the pain. Maybe by the end of next month.
Quote
The beer virus and oil shock has combined together to double fuck small companies. Last Monday, high yield (junk bond) oil companies were essentially given a death sentence within the next 6 months.

Why? Non integrated (not XOM or CVX) can't roll their debt over because no one in their right mind is going to lend to them. Worse yet, since 2014 a good amount of money in oil is private equity money, which naturally leveraged up to get a greater return.

Because these PEs are so leveraged, contagion is spreading into other lower grade companies who can't easily access the credit markets. This includes a large portion of Russell 2000 small caps.

For example, small manufacturers can't get the raw materials in from China, and can't create value if there is a quarantine because employees can't work from home. No cash flow = can't service debt, plus the new problem of not being able to roll over debt.

You can give a bank money and persuade them to lend, but as we have seen from TARP, you can't make them because no bank is willing to take on more credit risk with a recession on the horizon.

Credit spreads all the way to BBB have exploded these last two days, much more than during the coronavirus declines the weeks prior. Everyone waiting for the corporate debt bubble to pop, this is the start.
crunchatize me captain :noah
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Flannel Boy

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #52 on: March 12, 2020, 10:43:07 AM »
Western Canadian Select   $17.58
Western Canada Select (WCS), the price obtained for many Alberta producers of oil, averaged US$36.82 a barrel in January 2020.


shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #53 on: March 15, 2020, 05:17:36 PM »
Quote
The Federal Reserve, saying “the coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States,” cut interest rates to near-zero on Sunday and launched a massive $700 billion quantitative easing program to shelter the economy from the effects of the virus. ... The Fed also cut reserve requirement ratios for thousands of banks to zero.
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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #54 on: March 15, 2020, 05:32:17 PM »
Fuck my life, just my luck that all this rate cutting happened just after I renewed my mortgage. At least it was only a 6 month extension, maybe they'll stay this low for a while.

TEEEPO

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #55 on: March 15, 2020, 07:01:51 PM »

shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #56 on: March 15, 2020, 07:38:46 PM »
Quote
We need a double bazooka policy response
Quote
The Fed blasted its monetary bazooka for sure

Why do all investors talk like seven year olds
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TEEEPO

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #57 on: March 15, 2020, 07:42:33 PM »
efficiency, i'm not joking.

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #58 on: March 16, 2020, 02:23:26 PM »
Dow down 2,700! Wow! Sad!
que

shosta

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Re: Econ |OT| Great & Depressing: Saudi Grift
« Reply #59 on: March 16, 2020, 04:19:24 PM »
Can't wait for low consumption guaranteed income socialism under President Trump :rejoice
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