USA Politics Thread |OT| Cleaning up the town

[benjipwns]

You guys still pretending the guy hasn't been arrested, hasn't made statements - including that he isn't gay - and that he planned on kidnapping Pelosi and targeting other politicians? Or is he lying to hide the Real Story too.

That's just what they want us to think

Guys an arrested criminal who may have been in cahoots with the Pelosi crime family and also possibly gay, not sure why we should trust him! Not to mention he was part of Gamergate which is full of liars and criminals.

[Potato]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1587948848969916416

Bit of a wet noodle quickly gobbled together speech of nothing we haven't heard before.

Wonder if internal polls are really really bad at this point.

It's true though

[benjipwns]

It's true though

It's not though. It's not unprecedented, unlawful or un-American.

Like, even this one time we had an election where the losing party refused to accept the results of the election by trying to start their own country with hookers and blackjack. And a million Americans died. (That one was kinda unlawful admittingly.)

[Uncle]

yeah there was that other time one of the sides wouldn't accept defeat and demanded a recount of ballots and had all this stuff about hanging chads

[Potato]

It's true though

It's not though. It's not unprecedented, unlawful or un-American.

Like, even this one time we had an election where the losing party refused to accept the results of the election by trying to start their own country with hookers and blackjack. And a million Americans died. (That one was kinda unlawful admittingly.)

Please elaborate
 

[Potato]

yeah there was that other time one of the sides wouldn't accept defeat and demanded a recount of ballots and had all this stuff about hanging chads

All jokes aside, there is a difference between refusing to accept a clear result and asking for a recount of a close result (hanging chads is another matter, but at least there was some basis for disputing them as opposed to just not liking the outcome and staging a coup attempt).

[Uncle]

yeah there was that other time one of the sides wouldn't accept defeat and demanded a recount of ballots and had all this stuff about hanging chads

All jokes aside, there is a difference between refusing to accept a clear result and asking for a recount of a close result (hanging chads is another matter, but at least there was some basis for disputing them as opposed to just not liking the outcome and staging a coup attempt).

And also refusing to say outright "sure I trust our system well enough, whatever the result I assume if tampering exists we'd be talking about a tiny fraction of a percentage, of course I would concede a clear loss and I'll congratulate my opponent if he wins"

[benjipwns]

https://twitter.com/creynoldsnc/status/1587586694068535299

I don't think Bo thought this proposal through very much.

[benjipwns]

https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status/1587984629331623936

spoiler (click to show/hide)

https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status/1588006378173566977

[close]

[Potato]

What a name!

Bigger, but junior! What is it Pal?

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1587948848969916416

Bit of a wet noodle quickly gobbled together speech of nothing we haven't heard before.

Wonder if internal polls are really really bad at this point.

It's true though

Not really.

A few senate seats aren't a threat to democracy.
The GOP isn't saying that if they win they will end voting or elections and aren't planning to. Outlawing the opposition and abolishing the supreme court is the threat and that's what the Democrats want to do now.

Kari Lake, Herschel Walker, JD Vance etc. there is 0 evidence that they are undemocratic.

[Occam]

[Cauliflower Of Love]

nintex is so wrong it's hilarious

[Potato]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1587948848969916416

Bit of a wet noodle quickly gobbled together speech of nothing we haven't heard before.

Wonder if internal polls are really really bad at this point.

It's true though

Not really.

A few senate seats aren't a threat to democracy.
The GOP isn't saying that if they win they will end voting or elections and aren't planning to. Outlawing the opposition and abolishing the supreme court is the threat and that's what the Democrats want to do now.

Kari Lake, Herschel Walker, JD Vance etc. there is 0 evidence that they are undemocratic.

I get that individually they aren't a threat, but democracy very much depends on all candidates accepting the results of elections and not staging coups and stuff.

[Phoenix Dark]

Kari Lake has stated she wants to decertify the 2020 Arizona election and states she won't certify a Biden/dem win in 2024 if there is "fraud." I'd say she is anti-democracy, Benji.

[Occam]

Did you just mistake Nintex for benji? ;-)

[Phoenix Dark]

Did you just mistake Nintex for benji? ;-)

my bad

I don't have The Bore Premium so I can't edit my posts.

[Himu]

Political punishment should happen more often. One party completely owning a state is dumb dumb, whether blue or red. You need checks and you need balances. Democrats need to lose power to humble them push them to the right to force them to be more reasonable. Kind of like letting a kid touch an oven to realize they burn. Or telling your kid,"if someone hits you hit them back" to teach the other kid a good lesson in boundaries. If Dems don't get it, continue to punish them until they finally do and you get the government you want. Likewise, states like Texas are in serious need of reasonable blue representation to offset the Republicans heterodox of Tejas politic. This is why flip states are actually the smartest states and why flip voters are actually the smartest voters. Partisans are r-etards.

Luls.

Here's to a few upsets rocking the boat of progressives and their God awful policy. Here's hoping for a decade of conservatives rule. Cheers.

 

I highly doubt Washington state will be completely taken over by Republicans. That's a complete impossibility. But if say, it went rightward and became less blue so that there wasn't a complete monopoly of thought things might be better. Unfortunately you caught me: I hate Democrats that much.

[Himu]

Opinion | Florida Is a Blaring Warning Sign for Democrats

Biden has been reading too much of his own press.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/02/bidens-foolhardy-florida-obsession-00064689

For some reason, the White House is telling itself that the president’s trip to the Sunshine State this week sets up his midterm message perfectly, or as a CNN report put it, serves “as the ideal backdrop for his warnings against ‘mega-MAGA’ Republicans.”

“For months,” according to CNN, “Biden and his team have been hoping to use Florida’s constellation of Trump-aligned Republicans — including the former president himself — to crystallize Biden’s closing pitch that the election is a choice and not a referendum and galvanize Democratic voters.”

A senior Biden adviser explained of Tuesday’s venture into Florida, “You can’t shake a stick without hitting a Republican that represents the MAGA extremes that the president is talking about. So, it allows the president to really drive home what’s at stake and what the choice is.”

This raises some questions: If a large, politically prized state that is one of the most important in the Union has alleged extremists everywhere, are they really that extreme? And if Democrats do poorly in Florida next week, as seems likely, what does it say about the party?

Every party that is heading for a midterm drubbing has a moment of desperation-driven wishful thinking near the end of a campaign, and clearly, this is one of those moments.

Anyone who thinks that it’s a good idea to campaign against a future-oriented, ethnically diverse state where the Democratic Party is cratering has been spending too much time reading White House press releases, or Ron Klain’s Twitter account.

Besides Donald Trump, who is sui generis and not an elected official in the state, the chief Florida bogeyman is Ron DeSantis. For the left, he earned much of his notoriety during the pandemic, when he was a fierce opponent of lockdowns, school closures and mandates. His critics will never admit that he was correct, but at the very least, it’s hard to rekindle the righteous fury that was directed at him during the height of the pandemic.

Indeed, his response is one of his calling cards in a re-election campaign that looks set to sweep aside his adversaries.

DeSantis is so extreme that he leads his Democratic opponent Charlie Crist by double digits in the RealClearPolitics average, and has led by double digits in the last four polls in the average.

It’s worth pausing over this fact. Florida is not Utah or Alabama. It has been a swing state for much of the last 100 years. One of the most reliable indicators that a candidate is going to become president of the United States is if he wins the Sunshine State. George W. Bush did it twice, and so did Barack Obama. And not by large margins. Trump also won it twice, by 1 point in 2016 and in a harbinger of the state’s move rightward, 3 points in 2020.

LMAO Biden thinks TWITTER is real life!

this thread used to have good links on current US policies and shit.

Now it's just himu and nintex writing stupid shit.

i'd say bork sort this but it's sorta an empty gesture.

and to be fair nintex at least post links to stuff you can trace back.

himu, jfc, what the fuck is this drivel?

All you post is "this is dumb" one liners. If it's so bad, contribute positively how you would like the thread direction to head instead of every single of your posts being some low brow chest besting complaint?

Be the example in change you seek.

[Himu]

AHAHAHAHAHA

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/03/politics/david-depape-paul-pelosi-attack/index.html

Immigration officials say Pelosi attacker was in US illegally


Washington CNN  —

David DePape, the man accused of violently attacking Paul Pelosi last week, was in the United States illegally and may face deportation, the Department of Homeland Security said late Wednesday.

“U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) lodged an immigration detainer on Canadian national David DePape with San Francisco County Jail, Nov. 1, following his Oct. 28 arrest,” the department said.

ICE issues so-called immigration “detainers” to federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies to inform them that the agency intends to take custody of an individual and requests that ICE be notified before that individual is released.

The detainer is unlikely to affect DePape’s case since deportations often happen after criminal cases are resolved. But after conviction and prison sentence, the US normally would seek deportation.

According to federal records, DePape, a Canadian citizen, entered the country in early March at the San Ysidro port of entry, which is along the California-Mexico border, as a temporary visitor. Generally, Canadians who are visiting for business or pleasure don’t require a visa and are allowed to stay in the US for six months.

DePape, 42, has been charged with a litany of crimes, including assault, attempted murder and attempted kidnapping, following last week’s break-in at Pelosi’s San Francisco home, the US attorney’s office and San Francisco district attorney announced on Monday.

He was charged with one count of “attempted kidnapping of a US official,” according to the US attorney’s office for the Northern District of California. That charge relates to Nancy Pelosi, whom DePape told police he planned to “hold hostage,” according to an FBI affidavit also unsealed on Monday.

DePape entered a not guilty plea Tuesday to all state charges during his initial appearance in court. He has not yet entered a plea in federal court.

An illegal you say? Will Democrats start to want to vet illegal immigrants more readily now? MAYBE SO, because this man after all is white and not brown. But I bet they won't. It'll be more pussy footing. More weak policy, more navel gazing, and more moralizing.

[james]

An illegal you say? Will Democrats start to want to vet illegal immigrants more readily now? MAYBE SO, because this man after all is white and not brown. But I bet they won't. It'll be more pussy footing. More weak policy, more navel gazing, and more moralizing.

Read your own fucking quotes.

"According to federal records, DePape, a Canadian citizen, entered the country in early March at the San Ysidro port of entry, which is along the California-Mexico border, as a temporary visitor. Generally, Canadians who are visiting for business or pleasure don’t require a visa and are allowed to stay in the US for six months.'

He entered legally and overstayed.

Thats the point everyone keeps making. A wall wont fix that.

[Himu]

Opinion | Florida Is a Blaring Warning Sign for Democrats

Biden has been reading too much of his own press.

Man, the comments on r/moderatepolitics? Es muy bueno. Es delicioso.

The subheading is fire but also lacks introspection.

   

Biden has been reading too much of his own press.

This is a perennial problem that plagues Democrats, mostly because of the institutional control they have over the press in this country. They don't seem to understand that the American public has no confidence in journalists, and the journalists who write endlessly slanted articles are not representative of the true feelings of the population.

I honestly don't understand how the difference in media reporting and actual populace views can be so wide. I know outrage sells but surely the slant has be negatively affecting the revenue they generate? Maybe I am misrepresenting the general consumer of news but alienating half the population seems like a surefire way to lose money? I really don't get it.

Absolutely. Only the press thinks it’s a mystery that Hillary Clinton lost, and I voted for her.

The problem is that the Democrats have become the party of "let them eat cake". If someone disagrees with them, they are automatically a redneck deplorable. Democrats have lots of great ideas that would benefit a lot of people, but their legislature is constantly bogged down with special interests and pandering to idiots online.

The democrats are walking away from the opportunity to be the adults in the room. Where a plurality of Americans support things like legal abortions and mandatory background checks, democrats obsess over dumb plans like one time forgiveness of student loans.

Republicans are so horrible that it's amazing they win at all, but the only way they can is because the Democrats have cast themselves as so ridiculous that they actually seem like a better choice to many.

So here's a true story of voter disenfranchisement. The year is 2000. I'm finally old enough to vote. Two presidential candidates presented themselves. Al Gore and George Bush. I completely agreed with the science of climate change and knew it was a problem we needed to address. I also liked the economy and policies under Bill Clinton. However, every time I heard Al Gore speak, he was harping on about special interests, and his running mate, Joe Lieberman, was going to make it a campaign goal to ban violent video games. I saw them as radical and out of touch. Meanwhile Bush was likeable, relatable, and he seemed like the adult in the room. So I voted for Bush.

That's the part the news stories ignore. Most people don't identify as republican or democrat. They identify as individuals with various political opinions. So much so that a gay friend of mine in California who is an atheist was a staunch Trump supporter in 2016 despite this seeming ironic with his demographic. Hillary seemed dishonest and out of touch. The democrats nomination process seemed crafted to disenfranchise voters with the super delegates.

These are anecdotal stories, but they explain the problem well.

1. Democrats so heavily depend on dominating margins with minority voters that any slip in those totals can be catastrophic. “Demographics are destiny” is nonsense, as after 2-3 generations, most immigrants simply identify as “white”. When those “previously hispanic” and “previously 60% democrat voter” groups become closer to 50/50, thats a lot of voters that are lost. Similarly, with black voters, even a drop from 90% to low 80’s is devastating. Think those numbers arent realistic? How realistic is it that those margins continue to stay that high? That may explain the recent trend of the DNC catering so heavily towards “sure thing” voters. Now, if it ends up backfiring? That could happen, and thats when those margins start falling off.

2. these next 10 years are going to be a ride. We are starting to see the breaking up of the voting blocks of the south, midwest, and west. Democrats have put a lot of effort and money into trying to get a crown jewel in Florida (and Texas). Republicans have similarly made a lot of gains in the midwest. The electoral map of the ‘30s may well show New England cracking as well or one of the pnw states turning purple.

Probably the most hot comment on there which touches what I said earlier:

My parents are semi-retired and live at their place in Clearwater, Florida most of the time these days. Really the only reason they keep their house back home is to placate my brothers and I who like to frolic in our childhood nostalgia over the holidays, but I digress.

I visit fairly frequently. Originally when they first moved it was to escape the cold and enjoy the novelty of wearing shorts in winter, but then after Covid measures persisted beyond my emotional breaking point I often took refuge in the Sunshine State for more extended periods to take advantage of remote work flexibility and lay on the beach.

Florida is going places. There is really no denying it. Even with the current real estate market, try getting a house in Broward or Miami-Dade in particular these days that is not astronomically priced (a problem in and of itself). The business climate is booming, migration numbers are sky high, and the Governor has proven fearless in the face of culture war issues. Oh, and as an aside, there is a Po'Folks restaurant still open in St Pete. I shit you not. I had not seen those since I was a little kid.

People take note of this. People want to emulate this. People may very well vote accordingly.

Dems are no longer an aspirational party. They're a party of complainers. They no longer have hope, dreams (American or otherwise), just doomerism and gloom. A party of fragile weak ants who love being crushed by the boots of life.

[Himu]

An illegal you say? Will Democrats start to want to vet illegal immigrants more readily now? MAYBE SO, because this man after all is white and not brown. But I bet they won't. It'll be more pussy footing. More weak policy, more navel gazing, and more moralizing.

Read your own fucking quotes.

"According to federal records, DePape, a Canadian citizen, entered the country in early March at the San Ysidro port of entry, which is along the California-Mexico border, as a temporary visitor. Generally, Canadians who are visiting for business or pleasure don’t require a visa and are allowed to stay in the US for six months.'

He entered legally and overstayed.

Thats the point everyone keeps making. A wall wont fix that.

Finish the wall anyways! :klobuchar

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1588220086191538177



Non Republican pollsters are starting to pick up on shifts.
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1588129148543041537

[Himu]

https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1588220086191538177



Non Republican pollsters are starting to pick up on shifts.
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1588129148543041537

I would very much like a Trump-Gabbard ticket. Trump isn't my first choice but...

[Occam]

Himu, did you now that you can just talk to Nintex directly using PM? No need to make a detour using this thread.
To do this, click on his name, which will take you to his profile. Then on the left, click "Send PM".
Give it a try!

[Himu]

Opinion | Florida Is a Blaring Warning Sign for Democrats

Biden has been reading too much of his own press.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/02/bidens-foolhardy-florida-obsession-00064689

Biden uses another Florida pol, now-Sen. Rick Scott, as the occasion for making a tried-and-true attack against the GOP, namely that it wants to cut entitlements. This is an issue where it is actually the case, as Biden likes to say, that it’s no longer your father’s Republican Party. Trump turned the GOP against austerity economics and party leaders have largely resisted returning to entitlement reform as a major cause. When he came up with his own agenda earlier this year, Scott suggested voting to reauthorize entitlements every five years rather than having them run on autopilot. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell gave it the cold shoulder, and the chances of the proposal being taken up by Republicans should they win congressional majorities are exactly zero. At this point, there’s no way that Biden is going to make significant headway with it in the midterms.

The overall political message of Florida isn’t that Republicans are lurching into mega-MAGA irrelevance, but that Democrats are losing ground in a vital part of the country.

As The Economist wrote recently, “Florida has become emblematic of much of America and central to all of it. The state is on the rise.” Its economy has doubled since 2002, and were it a sovereign country, it would have the 15th largest economy in the world. “Between 2010 and 2020,” the magazine notes, “its population grew at double the national rate. Florida has overtaken New York to become America’s third-most-populous state after California and Texas, with a dynamic and diverse demography, including fast-rising numbers of Hispanics.”

This should make the Democratic fade in the state all the more concerning to the party. Since 2020, there are roughly 330,000 fewer registered Democrats in Florida. Republicans have now ticked ahead of Democrats in registrations for the first time, taking a 5.3 million to 5 million lead. Contrast that with 2008, when, benefiting from an Obama-era influx, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 700,000.

As a CNN report noted, Republicans have picked up nearly 60,000 new registrations among Hispanics, while Democrats have lost 46,000 — another indication of Democratic erosion with this key demographic. Such is the slide that Republicans could conceivably win in heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade county, the most populous county in the state that has traditionally been a pillar of the Democratic presidential coalition in Florida.

If Democrats want to chalk this all up to extremism, they are deluding themselves. Florida is a GOP success story and a cautionary tale for Democrats, rather than the key to staving off midterm defeats.

Himu, did you now that you can just talk to Nintex directly using PM? No need to make a detour using this thread.
To do this, click on his name, which will take you to his profile. Then on the left, click "Send PM".
Give it a try!

Going to put me in jail if I don't, fascist?

[Nintex]

https://twitter.com/amlivemon/status/1588208827425558530

I guess the mole is still active.

[Phoenix Dark]

Florida looks bad for dems, Pennsylvania looking good for dems. I'll take it. My priorities for Tuesday...

1. Hold PA governor seat
2. Hold MI governor seat
3. Hold US senate

1 and 2 seem like the most important for 2024, to ensure those elections are run in a logical and democratic way. Holding the senate is important for hopefully getting another supreme court seat, among other things.

[Himu]

Oh. My. God.


https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/hispanic-voters-on-the-eve-of-the

In 2020, the Democratic advantage among Hispanic voters declined by 16 points relative to 2016. On the eve of the 2022 election, that advantage is set to decline substantially once again.

This is obviously bad for the Democrats’ immediate electoral prospects. But it also cuts the ground out from under their leading electoral theory of the case: that the “rising American electorate”, with a starring role for the burgeoning ranks of minority voters, will deliver them victories in the future. It is overwhelmingly Hispanics who are driving the increase in the nonwhite population and if they continue moving toward the GOP—as they are and in a big way—the whole theory falls apart.

It is becoming clearer and clearer that Democrats have seriously erred by lumping Hispanics in with “people of color” and assuming they embraced a litany of liberal causes around race and other issues that are dear to the hearts of Democratic activists. This was a flawed assumption. In reality, Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly an upwardly mobile, patriotic population with practical and down to earth concerns focused on jobs, the economy, health care, effective schools and public safety.

In short, they are normie voters. And like other normie voters, if they feel Democrats are falling short on the things normie voters care about, they are more than willing to punish the party they hold responsible.

https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-climate-problem

This creates a huge political problem. What people want—and need—is abundant, cheap, reliable energy. Therefore if what you are advocating appears to call that goal into question, no amount of rhetoric about a roasting planet and no amount of effort to tie every natural disaster to climate change is likely to generate the support needed for a reasonably quick energy transition.

To add to the political problems, this misguided approach to energy policy is all being done in the name of fighting climate change, which is not a high-salience issue for most voters. That is, climate change, while having very, very high salience for Democratic elites, has low salience for ordinary voters, particularly working class voters. Surveys have also showed that, while voters mostly acknowledge climate change is ongoing, are at least somewhat concerned about it and think there should be more climate-oriented action, the issue is not so salient that they are willing to sacrifice much to support such action.

[Nintex]

Florida looks bad for dems, Pennsylvania looking good for dems. I'll take it. My priorities for Tuesday...

1. Hold PA governor seat
2. Hold MI governor seat
3. Hold US senate

1 and 2 seem like the most important for 2024, to ensure those elections are run in a logical and democratic way. Holding the senate is important for hopefully getting another supreme court seat, among other things.

Not sure if all these late poll swings are going to be reflected in the voting.
From what I'm seeing lots of people have already voted early and once again the GOP banks on a big turn-out on election day.
A powerful PR/marketing thing but also a big risk if the weather sucks or the voters don't show on the big day.

It seems like both parties are desperately trying to persuade the last few voters who haven't made up their mind yet to not only vote for them but also vote at all.

[Uncle]

As The Economist wrote recently, “Florida has become emblematic of much of America and central to all of it. The state is on the rise.” Its economy has doubled since 2002, and were it a sovereign country, it would have the 15th largest economy in the world. “Between 2010 and 2020,” the magazine notes, “its population grew at double the national rate. Florida has overtaken New York to become America’s third-most-populous state after California and Texas, with a dynamic and diverse demography, including fast-rising numbers of Hispanics.”

This should make the Democratic fade in the state all the more concerning to the party.

I feel like this has been obviously coming for years

most immigrants to the US will be overwhelmingly conservative

for all the reasoning each party has -- democrats "it's the compassionate and diverse thing to do," republicans "they'll steal jobs from white americans" -- they're exactly opposite what benefits or detracts from the party's future prospects for success

[Himu]

Tuesday hopes:

- Abbott beats Beto
- DeSantis wins in a landslide
- MI governor wins in a landslide. She has backbone and I respect her even if our politics are opposed
- PNW state upset
- Oz wins
- Az goes to GOP
- bigger trend of Latino, Black, and Latino voters shifting to GOP.

My biggest hope but the longest shot:

- NY governor race is close. I don't expect Hochul to lose but I want it to be so close that Republicans are in play in NY next cycle.

My expectations post midterms:

- Do Nothing Dems will continue their downward spiral to progressive thought ran by a cabal of white privileged elites and Republicans upward mobility to clench the Presidency in 2024, 2028, and 2032.

[Uncle]

I apologize because this is a serious subject but the bluntness of this tweet got me

https://twitter.com/RiseUp4L/status/1588199433086418944

[Himu]

That's actually good policy on the Biden administration!

[Phoenix Dark]

Florida looks bad for dems, Pennsylvania looking good for dems. I'll take it. My priorities for Tuesday...

1. Hold PA governor seat
2. Hold MI governor seat
3. Hold US senate

1 and 2 seem like the most important for 2024, to ensure those elections are run in a logical and democratic way. Holding the senate is important for hopefully getting another supreme court seat, among other things.

Not sure if all these late poll swings are going to be reflected in the voting.
From what I'm seeing lots of people have already voted early and once again the GOP banks on a big turn-out on election day.
A powerful PR/marketing thing but also a big risk if the weather sucks or the voters don't show on the big day.

It seems like both parties are desperately trying to persuade the last few voters who haven't made up their mind yet to not only vote for them but also vote at all.

Gonna be high turnout on both sides. In PA it's looking like Fetterman is up 50+ on the partisan split of early voting, and Oz is polling for an 11+ lead on election day. Barring some surge (or too many mail ballots being invalidated due to the address issue) I think Fetterman wins by 2-5 points. Gov wise Shapiro is up by even more. BTW I'd expect both Oz and Mastriano to challenge the results given that it'll be a repeat of 2020 election night: early lead followed by an avalanche of mail votes.

Michigan prob handled the abortion thing better than any state for dems. We have a ballot proposal on whether abortion should remain legal or not. That has forced candidates to take a direct stand and it's killing Tudor Dixon, the MAGA candidate. It's also allowed Whitmer to focus more on economic issues while liberal interest groups blast republicans in TV ads. Meanwhile every vote knows Prop 3 will be on the ballot.

[Himu]

If Oz loses I expect a massive uproar that legitimately calls the election suspect by having a debate a month after early voting began, which many voters will support because of Oz's post debate performance. Probably lots of regret votes.

[Phoenix Dark]

Doubt it. To paraphrase a great Italian American (Ralph Cifaretto), Fetterman will get better but Oz will be stupid forever.

[Himu]

I think that's naive. Oz's polling turn around post debate and the reaction to Fetterman's answers at the debate shows some of his voters likely regret their vote. In any case, PA shows the Democrats claims of "DeMoCrACy" is questionable by not being able to admit that allowing the first debate to occur a month after early voting starts isn't genuine, stroke or no stroke. It puts dashes into their claims and if they lose they look laughable, especially if they question election results. If they win it'll still look sus and give GOP claims that Dems don't actually give a shit about democracy unless they lose legitimacy. The next time Dems use democracy as a cudgel people won't really care because it shows their concerns are farcical.

[Phoenix Dark]

?

Debates often start after early voting begins, including in 2020/2016/etc. This is not some new thing. Florida, a red state, pioneered this ages ago. Fetterman had a stroke. He sounds like someone who had a stroke, and that's fine; most people understand he will get better. Post-debate polls still have him up, and there hasn't been a significant bump for Oz largely because his favorables are in the toilet.

There's not much evidence that debates shift elections. Most people know who they're going to vote for.

[benjipwns]

A few senate seats aren't a threat to democracy.
The GOP isn't saying that if they win they will end voting or elections and aren't planning to. Outlawing the opposition and abolishing the supreme court is the threat and that's what the Democrats want to do now.

Kari Lake, Herschel Walker, JD Vance etc. there is 0 evidence that they are undemocratic.

Kari Lake has stated she wants to decertify the 2020 Arizona election and states she won't certify a Biden/dem win in 2024 if there is "fraud." I'd say she is anti-democracy, Benji.

Nintex picked some particularly bad examples since that's the entire reason Kari Lake ran and J.D. Vance has said he wants to use the government to suppress non-MAGA views.

[benjipwns]

Read your own fucking quotes.

"According to federal records, DePape, a Canadian citizen, entered the country in early March at the San Ysidro port of entry, which is along the California-Mexico border, as a temporary visitor. Generally, Canadians who are visiting for business or pleasure don’t require a visa and are allowed to stay in the US for six months.'

He entered legally and overstayed.

Thats the point everyone keeps making. A wall wont fix that.

Wait, the guy's a Canadian?

BUILD 👏 THE 👏 WALL 👏 OR 👏 INVADE 👏

[Nintex]

Not even the Trumpers like Oz, if he wins it's going to be a miracle.

I think Trump still has a bunch more last minute rallies (and he has in the past shifted races with those by making sure his voters showed (or didn't show)).
The response of the crowd to Oz there will determine if he wins by a small margin or is beaten +5 points by Fetterman.

As USA Today notes:

Fetterman is crushing Oz 75%-19% among those who have already voted; Oz leads 52%-39% among those who say they are almost certain to vote but haven't yet.

[benjipwns]

Man, the comments on r/moderatepolitics? Es muy bueno. Es delicioso.

I honestly don't understand how the difference in media reporting and actual populace views can be so wide. I know outrage sells but surely the slant has be negatively affecting the revenue they generate? Maybe I am misrepresenting the general consumer of news but alienating half the population seems like a surefire way to lose money? I really don't get it.

It's not like they stop taking in the media or go for clear partisan outlets like OANN/Newsmax/MSNBC, they continue to take in the same stuff but just are skeptical about it and complain about it. Just look at the largest media enterprises, how much of what CNN/MSNBC/Fox fills time with is something that was on one of the others or in the New York Times or whatever so they can be complain about it? It's only the crazies who determine everything in the media must be a lie and disconnect completely for fact-based sources like RealRawNews, everyone else maintains a balance in their head. Even still this is often only on certain issues that people are personally informed about and probably didn't trust the media in the first place, see: Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect.

Not sure if all these late poll swings are going to be reflected in the voting.
From what I'm seeing lots of people have already voted early and once again the GOP banks on a big turn-out on election day.
A powerful PR/marketing thing but also a big risk if the weather sucks or the voters don't show on the big day.

It seems like both parties are desperately trying to persuade the last few voters who haven't made up their mind yet to not only vote for them but also vote at all.

I doubt it. That was the old model, now there's lots of interest in turning out your own voters who don't vote regularly.

I also suspect early voters are not undecided voters but regular voters. I also have suspicions that early voters lean Democrat because they stupidly prize the importance of voting so will rush out to vote immediately and Republicans stupidly prize the importance of the formal tradition of voting on election day so will build the anticipation of their putting pen to paper in the Holy Ceremony of Democracy.

We can't really look at 2020 to detect trends because there was this other thing going on that shot up absentee voting and this dude who was telling his supporters to specifically not absentee vote because it'd let the Democrats steal the election.

Michigan prob handled the abortion thing better than any state for dems. We have a ballot proposal on whether abortion should remain legal or not. That has forced candidates to take a direct stand and it's killing Tudor Dixon, the MAGA candidate. It's also allowed Whitmer to focus more on economic issues while liberal interest groups blast republicans in TV ads. Meanwhile every vote knows Prop 3 will be on the ballot.

I see a good amount of the anti-3 signs out in front of houses, but it doesn't look like their messaging that it's EXTREME and UNCLEAR is getting through. Polling has it above 60%. Although the pro-3 side has spent almost five times as much money so maybe the voters just aren't hearing about how EXTREME and UNCLEAR it is. (Something I'll note that the anti-3 ads never say how, base your entire campaign around the proven tactic of saying a Proposal is misleading and then totally botch the execution breh.)

[benjipwns]

Democracy Intensifies:

[Himu]

Read your own fucking quotes.

"According to federal records, DePape, a Canadian citizen, entered the country in early March at the San Ysidro port of entry, which is along the California-Mexico border, as a temporary visitor. Generally, Canadians who are visiting for business or pleasure don’t require a visa and are allowed to stay in the US for six months.'

He entered legally and overstayed.

Thats the point everyone keeps making. A wall wont fix that.

Wait, the guy's a Canadian?

BUILD 👏 THE 👏 WALL 👏 OR 👏 INVADE 👏

The entire point is laws. I said nothing about walls in that post. This is an issue of laws. SF and California in general prioritizes itself as a sanctuary city and state which means lax illegal immigration law, even for expired visas. You two aren't actually providing any evidence against strict immigration law. In fact, this entire thing shows it should be more strict as if it was this could have been preventable. Instead, you focus on the wall as a straw man rather than the fact under Biden they have a lax illegal immigration policing.

But at the same time, since you mention it, finish the wall.

[benjipwns]

The entire point is laws. I said nothing about walls in that post. This is an issue of laws. SF and California in general prioritizes itself as a sanctuary city and state which means lax illegal immigration law, even for expired visas. You two aren't actually providing any evidence against strict immigration law. In fact, this entire thing shows it should be more strict as if it was this could have been preventable. Instead, you focus on the wall as a straw man rather than the fact under Biden they have a lax illegal immigration policing.

I didn't say shit about your post, in fact I specifically removed the quote because I was only replying to what james said, so I could make an anti-Canada joke. (But maybe there's still a chance...)

In any regard, as I told you before, visa overstays are the bulk of illegal immigration violations. You want to build up an internal police force to hunt them down? Make employers have to get the federal governments approval on every hire they attempt? I'm going to have to be against those things too.

[Phoenix Dark]

To be fair it's probably the only thing they could have done on Prop 3. You can't just say no, I don't think women should have a right to an abortion and it's fine for a law from the 1930s to determine this. So you've got to instead make it an argument about process. Honestly this kind of goes back to the book banning discussion, and you could tie it to all types of discrimination laws. Easier to say "I'm not against x, I just think the process needs to be fixed" than "I don't think black people should vote."

[benjipwns]

The actual anti-3 group has a bunch of further parade of horribles it's supposed to cause like that it will allow partial birth abortion, allow transing of kids without parents permission, etc. but I haven't seen it in any of the ads or mailers or anything. My mom donated to some Christian charity one time in the past so she got put on some list and gets all the hardcore pro-life stuff during election season and they sent her a mailer with a bunch of this stuff in it. But suspected pro-life people shouldn't be your target, it should be the pro-choice people who are fine with restrictions which is the plurality of people!

To be fair, this might actually be an impossible task. Would the pro-life people accept a campaign that says "no, they should come back with a better pro-choice proposal and the legislature should change the law too" instead of one focused on pro-life stuff? Doubt it! It'd probably defeat 3 specifically though!

[Himu]

Democracy Intensifies:


(Image removed from quote.)

SAVE DEMAHCWASHI

[james]

BLUE WAVE BABY

https://mobile.twitter.com/KOCOZach/status/1587957731218010112

https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1587967029683838976

[benjipwns]

Dems need to pour all their resources into Texas and Florida for this last weekend, this is the year we turn Texas and Utah BLUE! THIS IS WHAT DEMOCRACY LOOKS LIKE!

[benjipwns]

https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/1587990319999721473

https://twitter.com/CalebHowe/status/1588203985034518531

[Himu]

Dems need to pour all their resources into Texas and Florida for this last weekend, this is the year we turn Texas and Utah BLUE! THIS IS WHAT DEMOCRACY LOOKS LIKE!

YAAAAAAS KWEEN

https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/1587990319999721473

https://twitter.com/CalebHowe/status/1588203985034518531

SAVE DEMOCRACY THIS TUESDAY, TUESDAY, TUESDAY!

On Tuesday, the Democratic Party will save us from the media's conservative bias!

[Himu]

I hope! If they're divided they're less powerful. They will lose more until they get their house in order. And hopefully, the normie Dems win and push the party to the right.

------

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-11-03/shot-fired-at-family-home-of-n-carolina-us-house-candidate

Shot Fired at Family Home of N. Carolina US House Candidate

A recent shooting at the Hickory, North Carolina, residence of GOP congressional candidate Pat Harrigan’s parents and young children caused no injuries but has placed “tremendous stress” on the family in the final weeks of his campaign, Harrigan’s mother said.

By HANNAH SCHOENBAUM, Associated Press/Report for America

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — A recent shooting at the Hickory, North Carolina, residence of GOP congressional candidate Pat Harrigan's parents and young children caused no injuries but placed “tremendous stress” on the family in the final weeks of his campaign, Harrigan's mother said Thursday.

Harrigan, a firearms manufacturer and U.S. Army Special Forces veteran, is running against Democratic state Sen. Jeff Jackson for an open U.S. House seat in North Carolina's new 14th District based in western Charlotte. The left-leaning district emerged from a lengthy redistricting battle during which North Carolina redrew its congressional map to account for the additional seat it was awarded following the 2020 census.

Political analysts say the 2022 map favors Republicans in seven of the state’s 14 districts and favors Democrats in six, with one toss-up district in the Raleigh suburbs.

Marla Harrigan, 74, told The Associated Press on Thursday that she and her husband James Harrigan were watching television down the hall when a bullet shattered their laundry room window on the night of Oct. 18. The Hickory Police Department responded to their 911 call and noted in the police report that the incident involved a firearm.

The congressional candidate's children, ages 3 and 5, were asleep in the bedroom directly above the room where the shooting occurred, Marla Harrigan said. The bullet came from a densely wooded area and did not wake the kids.

She said the two children have been living with their grandparents in Hickory, about 57 miles northwest of Charlotte, for much of the campaign cycle. They have since been relocated out of state “out of an abundance of caution after the shooting," she said, adding that her son is urging his parents to leave town as well.

“It's just disconcerting, especially with the children there," Marla Harrigan told the AP. “This campaign is so stressful, and we feel so badly for our son because, you know, he's terribly stressed about his children ... and now they're gone, they're not with their parents and it's just very, very disruptive."

Hickory Police Department spokesperson Kristen Hart said the department has not made arrests related to the incident and that the investigation is ongoing.

Jordan Shaw, spokesperson for the Harrigan campaign, said the Republican candidate has also received numerous death threats, which they've submitted to the police to aid their investigation.

“I’m focused on fixing the economy, lowering prices and keeping our streets safe,” Harrigan said in a statement Thursday. “And it’ll take more than a bullet and death threats to knock this Green Beret off that mission.”

___

Hannah Schoenbaum is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues. Follow her on Twitter at @H_Schoenbaum.

I'm so glad the family is save and especially the babies!

[Himu]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2022/11/04/herschel-walker-midterm-election-candidates-threat-democracy/8251963001/

A STAIN on American democracy. Get it? It's because he's black!

Dems: guys, why are we losing?
Dems: I don't know, let's blame someone.

The boy that cried Democracy Tour continues.  Children's story in real time.

-- - - - - -

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/02/hispanic-latino-voters-democrats-republicans-economy/10528038002/

Dems get shocker! Black and brown people are overwhelmingly socially conservative! While also being fiscally liberally

As the GOP becomes more fiscally liberal the Dems bleed Latino voters. You thought you could turn Latinos to make states purple when Mexicans live in Texas and the state is still blood red? There's a song for this, mijo.



- - - - - -

538 poll shows Boebert is down. It would be hilarious if GOP takes the house and Senate and MTG/Boebert lose

[Phoenix Dark]

That +7 dem generic ballot poll is an outlier but kinda highlights the possibility of a polling error shifting everything to one or the other side. Multiple recent polls have dems re-taking the generic lead or tying. Tells me there's high turnout on both sides. We'll see what election day looks like.

I'm gonna stick to my assumptions:

-GOP wins house, gains 15-20 seats
-Dems hold the senate with either 50 or 51 seats
-Dems hold PA, MI governor seats
-Dems lose WI governor seat

[james]

Final predictions:

-Dems wins house, gains 15-20 seats
-Dems hold the senate with either 52 or 53 seats
-Dems hold PA, MI, WI, OR governor seats
-Iowa and Oklahoma flip to Dems
-Rs hold Florida, Texas by the skin of their teeth


....

Oh wait. This is with Bernie as president.

You know the guy who was criticized for making everything about the economy when the economy is the number 1 issue. Hes be out their nationalizing the oil companies and sending everyone free oil rigs. Hes be on primetime TV pointing fingers at greedy companies upping prices.

 

[tiesto]

Florida looks bad for dems, Pennsylvania looking good for dems. I'll take it. My priorities for Tuesday...

1. Hold PA governor seat
2. Hold MI governor seat
3. Hold US senate

1 and 2 seem like the most important for 2024, to ensure those elections are run in a logical and democratic way. Holding the senate is important for hopefully getting another supreme court seat, among other things.

Also hoping that Hochul beats anti-abortion, election denier, Trump lapdog Zeldin. Guy was my rep for the last 8 or so years and he's terrible. The best is, he's running on "crime is out of control!" yet he can't even keep crime out of his own backyard. Literally (to be fair, Shirley is kind of a trashy area):

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/two-shot-outside-new-york-congressman-lee-zeldins-home-2022-10-10/

But now, speaking as someone who is the epitome of the modern day Dem - white, non-religious, live on the coast, graduate degree, socially liberal (pro lgbtq, pro choice), economically well-off...

I definitely think calling the 2020 protests "mostly peaceful" riots and wokescolding/going all Lisa Simpson on those who refuse to use terms like 'Latinx' or 'Uterus bearer', still celebrate 'Columbus Day' not 'Indigenous Peoples Day', etc. has annoyed many. People (especially Gen X, a prime 'independent' demographic who has moved rapidly to the right) hate being told what to do in such a condescending manner. And the Repubs hammer on these points, downplaying any successes Dems might have. While the "blue check" Dems push more social-justice favored policies instead of economic ones. While I think stuff like making Juneteenth a national holiday is great, and (speaking as an Italian-American) I'd support a rename of Columbus Day to Indigenous Peoples Day... these types of things don't matter to most when the COL keeps rising and the average family is increasingly having trouble paying their med bills, filling up their tanks, or putting food on the table.

[Phoenix Dark]

Florida looks bad for dems, Pennsylvania looking good for dems. I'll take it. My priorities for Tuesday...

1. Hold PA governor seat
2. Hold MI governor seat
3. Hold US senate

1 and 2 seem like the most important for 2024, to ensure those elections are run in a logical and democratic way. Holding the senate is important for hopefully getting another supreme court seat, among other things.

Also hoping that Hochul beats anti-abortion, election denier, Trump lapdog Zeldin. Guy was my rep for the last 8 or so years and he's terrible. The best is, he's running on "crime is out of control!" yet he can't even keep crime out of his own backyard. Literally (to be fair, Shirley is kind of a trashy area):

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/two-shot-outside-new-york-congressman-lee-zeldins-home-2022-10-10/

I kind of view NY the same way I view TX. The minority party winning a state-wide election is a herculean effort. Of course this is complicated by Hochul apparently sucking (?) and only being governor due to scandal. Given how high turnout is across the nation you gotta expect dems to hold NY the same way I'd expect republicans to hold TX.