The roadmap looks something like this. Because Nintendo has a 10 year partnership with Nvidia for Switch products and Nvidia had a big hand in designing the hardware (people often forget this). You have to look at both the roadmaps of Nvidia and Nintendo to figure out what the next step in the Switch hardware cycle is. That's why to me a Switch Pro always seemed like a tall order because the Tegra X2 only offers a 50% performance boost over the X1 and was a bit of a dissapointment compared to the revolutionary X1. The rumors about the 'new' Tegra 239 in development for Nintendo are almost 100% true but that was never a viable candidate for a 'Switch Pro' but rather a next-gen Switch. The fact people had seen it in the code as easly as last year makes sense considering it is part of a new line-up of Nvidia chips. Unlike previous chips which were developed long after the original product was already out.
Teraflops don't say much but it is what we have so if we stack them up:
Switch (Tegra X1): 1 TFLOPS ($299)
Xbox One: 1.3 TFLOPS ($399)
Switch Pro (Tegra X2): 1.5 TFLOPS (max) (?)
Steamdeck: 1.6 TFLOPS ($399)
PS4: 1.8 TFLOPS ($399)
Switch 2 (Tegra 239): ~4 TFLOPS (?)
PS4 Pro: 4.2 TFLOPS ($399)
Xbox One X: 6 TFLOPS ($499)
Nintendo however, would likely not hit that 1.5 TFLOPS on the Switch Pro in handheld mode (only docked). It would not be much of an improvement over the X1.
The only way it would've been a significant leap is if they bolted on some kind of DLSS solution and that is apparently what they tried. Maybe it didn't work out or it was just something they tested before the new T239 chips were ready.
It could also be that Nintendo decided that the cost wasn't worth it. After all most Switch players use their Switch as a handheld. A far better screen and audio would add more value to those players than slightly faster hardware with DLSS bolted on.
I don't think the Switch Pro was ever more than a different scenario for the Switch OLED and journo's jumping to conclusions. They seldom understand the concept of 'Development'.
2023 - Switch
Nintendo: Another stacked year of Switch software including Fire Emblem, Metroid Prime (4?), Zelda TOTK, Pikmin 4 and more. They also have the Mario movie to promote.
New hardware could include a 'cheaper' version of the Switch. Despite rumors that it would be canned, Nvidia has confirmed the Jetson Nano (an embedded system product that uses the Tegra X1+) is in production until at least 2025.
However it is possible that they again make improvements to power consumption and production cost as they did with the Switch -> Switch 2019 / Lite / OLED.
Nvidia: the Tegra chip variant the Switch 2 is based on are just now rolling out in various embedded systems and products. Nvidia Tegra Orin products are launching Q4 2022 - Q1 2023.
Nintendo's chip would likely end up at ~4 TFLOPS, however this range of products scales from 1.2 TFLOPS / 4GB all the way up to 10 TFLOPS / 64GB.
Could Nintendo jump the gun on Switch 2 in 2023? Possibly if they wanted but it would be costly and with Pokemon and Xenoblade doing record numbers, why wouldn't Zelda?
Expect near-final devkits to hit Q1 2023, about 12 months before release as usual. After all that's when the chips are ready.
Journo's: completely clueless, grasping at straws, saying that Switch 2 is also cancelled and Nintendo is in big trouble after no Switch 2 at E3
2024 - Switch / Switch 2
Nintendo: by now Nintendo has released their last batch of AAA+ Switch titles and hardware sales are likely to slow down(?). However the Switch is still viable enough for new games so we'll see a bunch of games hit both platforms like Fire Emblem and Pokemon.
Unless something signficant happens like the invasion of Taiwan or Nvidia going bankrupt or whatever I don't see why Nintendo wouldn't release a Switch 2 early 2024 at $399.
Nvidia: Having rolled out the Orin, Nvidia is working on Thor the new Tegra chipset expected in 2025, which means late 2025. This replaces Atlan, which was cancelled. However, it would be risky for Nintendo to bet on this as it could suffer delays like Orin or be outright cancelled like Atlan.
Journo's: after saying that Switch 2 would not release for a while yet utterly baffled when it is announced and released quickly
2025 - Switch 2 / Switch (EOL?)
Nintendo: Nintendo drops the original Switch as Nvidia no longer makes the chips after an 8 year run. Switch 2 sells gangbusters thanks to a new economic boom
Nvidia: Nvidia ends production of the Tegra X1. Releases Thor(?)
Journo's: most lose their jobs to AI
