Anyway, two things I wanted to post about but wasn't at a keyboard and didn't feel like pecking out on my phone:
a) People wondering with what games the WiiU could sell decent numbers in Japan, firing off things like Tales, Yakuza, and Gran Turismo. Those games are certainly popular, with sales of over 600k for Tales of Xilia (much lower for other Tales), 550k being a reliable notch for Yakuza games, and Gran Turismo even in its sunset selling over 600k. It would be nice for Nintendo if they could attract those fanbases, but I think we all realize at least 2/3 of those aren't happening. The thing is, though, Nintendo, in Japan, doesn't need anyone but themselves.
If we look at a dark time for Nintendo, the Gamecube era, they were able to sell 4 million of them with a top ten (top 15 even) consisting entirely of their own titles. While its top title (Smash) didn't sell as well as PS3's top title (FF13), the rest of the numbers don't look very different from the PS3 software sales-wise. Their software is a powerful hardware seller, there's no question of it. Think of it like this: if Activision-Blizzard announced they were making a console, and all of their games would be exclusive to that console, and no other third parties got on board, do you think they could sell at least 4 million of those consoles? I think it would be trivially easy.
Anywhere up to 6 million is not that hard in Japan for Nintendo. 4 million is practically a baseline, no matter what Sony does. Going past 6 million requires popularity outside their traditional circles and/or legs, neither of which I think the WiiU has, but it's not going to be below 4 million, short of Nintendo pulling a SEGA, which probably isn't in the cards this generation.
b) I want to address this question from Andy:
Well that's part of my confusion, as to why the games started coming and why they started selling.
The Playstation 3 could probably go down in history as the luckiest console ever. It has survived and in some extents thrived through none of its own efforts. Here's what went down:
- PS1/PS2 were smashing successes, so it was a no-brainer for third parties to plan projects for the PS3. Nobody in the world doubted the PS3 before those $599 words were spoken, and even then, most thought it would be a hindrance as opposed to a dealbreaker. So, at least as far as pre-launch support goes, the PS3 already had a ton of stuff coming.
- Xbox 360 launched a year earlier. At the time, Microsoft made it a priority to get as many third party games on Xbox as possible, particularly games that were the backbone of the PS2. A lot of money was thrown around on timed exclusives and breaking previous Sony exclusives.
- Nintendo's finger is in its bum at this point.
- As the PS3 was not out anyway, these timed exclusives were a no-brainer for many third parties. The incentives were high enough to almost pay for the entire game in some cases. It gave them practice working with next generation technology and allowed them to develop engines that they could probably use for the PS3.
- The Xbox 360 does a belly flop in Japan, but is unexpectedly strong overseas for software. This made it still worth developing for, particularly when development could be shared with the PS3 or subsidized by exclusives with MS, but the PS3 is coming and it's obviously going to rock things, so let's get to work on our PS3 projects and porting over those timed exclusives.
- Nintendo's finger is in its bum at this point.
- The PS3 releases, belly flops. The Wii releases, rises to heaven. This is awful. Everything in the development pipeline is for the PS3/360. Engines were developed for that level of tech. A few PS2 games are repurposed and tinkered to try to get some Wii cake. No choice but to go forward on the expensive projects already planned for PS3, and with the 360 selling so much software overseas, that should offset things.
- Nintendo pulls its finger out of its bum, sniffs it a bit, offers it around, there are a few takers who end up passing out. Back in the bum it goes.
- The initially planned PS3 releases come out and sales are for the most part underwhelming. SEGA sees strong success with Yakuza, Konami sees a good result on MGS4, everything else is doing worse than expected, albeit better than the quick efforts they had to throw together for the unexpected Wii success. Fortunately, 360 sales overseas are stronger than expected. Unfortunately, the 360 shows no life in Japan.
- It's clear that the 360 market is where the money is. Nintendo's console as usual has a somewhat unique base of owners that can be hard to read for most third parties. Overseas sales are booming on 360 software, so that's where development shifts to. PS3 ports are trivially cheap/easy and while they don't sell terribly well overseas, the domestic sales are decent enough.
- As Japan doesn't care about the 360, all of those multiplat titles shared between PS3/360 might as well be considered PS3 exclusives for Japanese gamers. Many of these games are awesome, so PS3 owners buy them. 360 versions basically end up subsidizing the PS3 library in Japan.
- Nintendo puts a second finger up its bum.
Post of the generation. The Nintendo imagery is especially evocative.
Why do japanese people like handhelds so much? Why not play on mobiles?
When did the country become technologically backwards?
Why did they stop pushing tech?
Why is Korea LG/Samsung > Sony now?
Oscar already did a nice write-up, but it's worth summarizing as, "without Japan (Sony, Toshiba, Sharp), Korea (LG/Samsung) would not be where it is." Then again, this was also true of Japan in the '70s, so we'll wait to see if the strategy of "copy other people's stuff and sell it cheaper" leads to the same "now innovate!" inspiration that informed Japan in the '80s and early '90s.
