I remember in 2010 when they redistricted and people were screaming that the map would be gerrymandered for ten years. Has anyone seen an analysis of how that's reflected in 2018's election?
Pennsylvania and Virginia have had court-ordered redistricting since then and accounted for six of the Dem gains, so that probably helped. North Carolina was ordered to make a new map but drew out the process long enough to avoid it this cycle.
Going by Dave Wasserman's current tally, if the total national vote was tied (right now it's +7.1% for Dems and growing) and you applied a uniform shift across all the districts to get that, Republicans would have a 233-202 majority. Also using a uniform shift, the breakeven point is right around +4% Dem in the total national vote.
Winning the governors races in Michigan and Wisconsin is going to help, but Ohio and Florida would've been really nice.