I still would advice against just assuming more will come out, therefore operate as such, since it is a really faulty decision-making tool. It's the sort of mental shortcut
It's actually pretty statistically sound, as heuristics go.
Using this* as an example, while over a third of rapists are one-time offenders, less than 10% of all rapes are committed by those men. A victim coming forward is super likely to have been attacked by a serial offender.
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*This is a quick google result to grab some actual numbers, but the point stands if you accept that 1) serial offenders make up a significant portion of all offenders and 2) they average at least 5-10 incidents each. Open to other data, but this jibes roughly with what I'd expect.
My original, longer post, mentioned that while it is probably good as a 85-95% mental shortcut generally(more or less depending on who is using it) - and perhaps heavily so in male sexual assault cases if your study on rape can be more broadly interpreted - that when it comes to something like publicly elected officials, and public process, that 5-10% gap plus context should be accounted for in whatever process. Normative or otherwise.
And I was gonna point out that the initial context of Franken's was somewhat unique in that he reached out to the woman and the woman had forgiven him(albeit after the fact). And the whole first two accusations were a bit of a hard call compared to other recent ones.
In personal message board banter? Yeah, whatever, heuristics galore. We all sort of do it. Its unavoidable. in terms of a structural process? I don't think beyond a reasonable doubt is needed, but at least something that inches toward a normative process of deliberation that addresses context and establishes something like at least a preponderance of certainty.
I think as Human Snorenado pointed out, I think broadly they handled this better than I was initially expecting(Pelosi notwithstanding): trust the victim, start an ethics investigation(which as a side note probably needs to be revamped significantly after reading up on it during all this), and wait to see what evidence follows, as more evidence arises, calls for resignation become pretty justifiable as it was with Franken. And frankly, if I'm honest, if a few innocent people get shamed out wrongly or from over-correction of a systemic problem, I wouldn't go red-pilling over it.
